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2020 Vision: RPO Run Analysis

Published: July 24, 2020
By: SEC StatCat
Article
2020
2020 Vision: RPO Run Analysis

2020 Vision: RPO Run Analysis:

Run-Pass Options have engrained themselves in basically every offensive scheme across the country the last half decade. Building upon preexisting spread read plays, these designs are de facto modern day triple options. But instead of the "pitch" man working laterally from the backfield, he is now a receiver on the perimeter. With that tweak, the variations and forms RPOs can take are much more versatile than option looks from split back, wing-T, or flexbone. Another aspect the receiver operating as the pitchman provides is potentially having multiple on one play. And while backs were landlocked behind the line of scrimmage by the old model, receivers can work downfield to create other mismatches. And despite the seemingly endless wrinkles these looks provide, they don't make a QB's job more difficult or bog him down with tertiary responsibilities. Defenses, on the other hand, certainly can be stressed out by these designs. 

Every story you'll read about RPOs' invention follows the same arc: they came by an accident. As several innovators stumbled onto something revolutionary, it was quickly adopted by their contemporaries. Outside of being easy tweaks to pre-existing schemes, RPOs offer designs that allow offenses who might be undersized, less skilled, or slower-footed to find success against stalwart defensive opponents. Though the end results might not be totally incendiary, seeing modest improvements on a per snap basis while incessantly pressuring linebackers and safeties is enough for many to be full believers in the tactic. 

For passers, the upsides RPOs present are obvious. They allow offenses to always have an out depending on the defensive alignment, which frequently presents easy targets to space on the outside. With shorter throws and less obstacles, RPOs help quarterbacks manage down and distance quite well. Looking at the 16 SEC passers with at least 140 attempts and 16 RPO throws, these looks helped the average Completion% climb 12.4 points and Success Rate 5.5 points. Only three passers saw the later worsen on RPOs compared to their overall clip. But obviously with targets closer to the line of scrimmage commonly being featured on RPOs, the average Yards/Attempt and First Down+Touchdown Rate dipped. Though meant to help offenses move forward, the modest gains generate far fewer explosive gains on average. Roughly one out of every seven throws came off an RPO design this past season within the SEC. 

While playing the numbers game definitely aided SEC passers this past season, run games didn't see the same benefits like you'd expect. Sure, some offense saw major improvements when routes were tagged onto read options. But overall, teams only experienced a marginal increase in Yards/Carry with their Success Rates souring considerably. The average SEC RPO carry went for 5.74 yards. Where as, the average carry in general only netted 5.40. The conference-wide RPO Success Rate of 42.7% trailed its overall counterpart by 2.4 percentage points. Needless to say, those results are rather curious considering RPOs are meant to always present a preferable way to move the ball. Within the SEC this past season, roughly 39% of all rush yards and 36% of rush attempts were off RPOs. 

Runs = Team Averages

Passes = min. 140 att, 16 RPO

Non RPO Yards/AttemptRPO Yards/AttemptNon RPO Success RateRPO Success Rate
SEC Passes7.827.0844.8%50.3%
SEC Runs5.405.7445.1%42.7%

Without digging through the weeds too much, I still wanted to give a team-by-team glimpse how each utilized RPOs in 2019. Some teams like Tennessee used them sparingly; while others like Auburn had them baked into the fabric of their offense. Though I will sprinkle in some nuggets from the pass game for each team, my energy will be directed towards talking about how RPOs affected running the ball. 

Alabama:


RPO Rush Attempt MakeupRPO Rush Yard MakeupOVR Yards/CarryRPO Yards/CarryOVR Run SuccessRPO Run Success
Alabama35.1%39.7%5.596.3354.3%55.6%

Ramping up RPO usage was one of the first signs Steve Sarkisian was back calling plays for the Crimson Tide. While the designs were commonly featured under Mike Locksley, Sark made a concerted effort to attack opponents early with RPOs. About a quarter of their total plays (24.8%) were categorized as such. His West Coast Offense background often strives for timing routes and ample yards after the catch. So pairing that mentality off read options was a perfect formula for Alabama's personnel. With the firecrackers the Tide possessed at receiver, getting them the ball quickly in space proved to be highly effective and fruitful. That threat thusly created more cushion inside. With the dynamos out wide and a back built to shred through reduced boxes, Alabama had matchup advantages essentially on every snap. Defenses had to pick their poison on what area to hone in on; and more often than not, they picked wrong. The Tide's 53.6% Success Rate on RPOs earned the SEC's silver medal in 2019. 

Both Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones broke into the double-digits with their Yards/RPO Attempt and held the top2 spots within the conference. As multiple highlights told us last season, Tide receivers were amazing after the catch in this context. As a team, the Tide averaged 10.1 yards after the catch alone on these snaps. No other SEC offense topped 6.80. Because of this potency, Alabama averaged 8.38 Yards/RPO - a mark that led the SEC and was nearly a whole yard better than the next team in line. 

Looking at the ground, the SEC's most successful run game got even better when RPOs were added to the equations. The Tide was one of six SEC offenses where RPOs helped both its Yards/Carry and Rushing Success Rate. Zone and Power RPO looks both finished with at least a 52% clip. RPO's helped Alabama's so-so run blocking drastically. Though Alabama's 2.35 Yards Before Contact clip was the definition of average within the SEC, it shot up to 3.24 yards and inside the conference's top4 on RPOs. Alabama's overall 26.9% Run Havoc Rate plummeted to 11.1%. No SEC team experienced a lower RPO Negative Run Rate than the Tide's 4.83% clip. With less mess, 'Bama's backs were able to rip off more 10-plus runs. The team's 17.3% Explosive Run Rate ticked up 2.4 percentage points on RPO designs. 

Like most conference offenses, Alabama used route tags on zone reads at a higher rate than off powers. Of their 175 RPO runs, 75 were of the zone variety. But while zone RPOs totaled more yards, attempts, and a preferable Yards/Attempt, powers posted a 60% Success Rate. Regardless, both facets clips finished with the second best Success Rates in their respective categories within the SEC. 

Arkansas:


RPO Rush Attempt MakeupRPO Rush Yard MakeupOVR Yards/CarryRPO Yards/CarryOVR Run SuccessRPO Run Success
Arkansas37.4%39.8%5.345.6941.5%37.5%

The Chad Morris experiment in Fayetteville had very few positives. Transitioning a roster built to play in a phone booth to the Run and Shoot was bound to experience growing pains. Since Morris was never able to find a difference maker -- or even a game manager -- at the quarterback position, a bullseye was placed on Arkansas' ground game. Only one other SEC offense produced a worse RPO Success Rate than Arkansas' 37.6% clip. While the end result was nothing to be proud of, RPOs occasionally benefited the Razorbacks. In the end, 22.8% of their plays incorporated them, which was a below average rate within the SEC. 

Some offenses had difference makers on the perimeter that helped open up the inside, but that wasn't the case for Arkansas last year. No SEC team averaged less yards after the catch overall; and only one averaged less off RPOs. Still, the option to dink and dunk for a modest gain outside still helped the Hogs create cushion. The Razorbacks' Run Havoc Rate enhanced by about six percentage points on RPO designed compared to their cumulative figure. With less bad elements derailing plays, yards came a little easier. Though the increase was very unassuming, Arkansas' 2.46 Yards Before Contact average ticked up to 2.85 on RPOs, which had a direct result on their Yards/Carry. But the room in this context didn't help their ball carriers break loose or find more success after contact. Arkansas sat in the bottom4 in average Yards After Contact both overall and off RPOs . 

Despite aiding Arkansas' Yards/Carry, RPOs didn't help the ground game become more consistent or potent. Both of the Razorbacks' Rushing Success Rate and Explosive Run Rate regressed in these spots. Plus, the effects they had on Nick Starkel's and Ben Hicks' production were not worthwhile even if they helped pad each's Completion%. Looking at Starkel (who qualified for our analysis), his Yards/Attempt dipped by 0.9 yards while his Success Rate only climbed by 0.7 percentage points. 

In terms of distribution, RPOs were another area of mismanagement for Morris. Like plenty of other aspects under his reign, he ignored bright spots while trying to cement his own personal preference. Blinded by a few breakaway runs that ballooned Arkansas' average, zone wrinkles made up 63% of the team's RPO runs. For what it's worth, only Georgia and Kentucky averaged more than their 6.63 such clip within the conference. But only Florida and Tennessee sported less favorable Success Rates. Power RPOs' 46.5% clip was top5 within the conference despite a 4.14 Yards/Carry. None of the three Draw RPO designs resulted in success. 

While Morris is gone, Arkansas still has some serviceable parts for 2020. Though it remains to be seen exactly how they'll operate with Feleipe Franks behind center and Kendal Briles calling the plays, Sam Pittman's experience working with OLines and the return of lead back Rakeem Boyd is a decent place to start. 

Auburn:


RPO Rush Attempt MakeupRPO Rush Yards MakeupOVR Yards/CarryRPO Yards/CarryOVR Run SuccessRPO Run Success
Auburn42.3%45.0%5.225.5645.3%44.3%

Essentially a third of Auburn's offense came off RPO designs. No SEC passer came close to eclipsing Bo Nix's 24.1% RPO Throw Rate. On the ground, only Ole Miss saw a higher volume of carries come off RPOs within the conference. Like I stated above, the "death by 1,000 paper cuts" approach is synonymous with Gus Malzahn's offensive identity. Oddly enough, Auburn's Yards/RPO Pass and Yards/RPO run were practically identical. While plugging away 5.5 yards at a time isn't sexy, the Tigers' 47.9% RPO Success Rate was discernibly better than their 43.1% clip overall.  

That rise was a direct result of Bo Nix picking at space or targeting bubble screens. Nix's RPO Completion% and his Success Rate trumped his cumulative figures by 19.3 and 12.8 percentage points, respectively. Both were the third highest increases within the conference in this context. Since Nix was a first year looking to find his footing, defenses overly wanted to put in long yard situations by limiting Auburn's runners. So, there were plenty of chances to compile easy completions. And with the route tags getting plenty of attention, RPOs thusly helped the Tigers produce more cushion. Even though their Yards Before Contact clip on these designs failed to finish inside the SEC's top4 like War Eagle's cumulative figure, Auburn averaged about a third of a yard more before engagement on RPOs. But their backs remained horrible at shaking off defenders. Auburn's 2.57 Yards After Contact clip remained unchanged and finished in the conference's bottom2 in both aspects. 

In general, Auburn was one of the very best offenses at eliminating Havoc plays from opponents. Their 22.2 Run Havoc Rate only trailed Kentucky this past season. On RPOs, their clip improved by about 8 percentage points but fell in the conference rankings to the 5-spot. Ameliorating conditions, however, did little to help the Tigers find more consistent or big time production on a per carry basis. Both their Explosive Run Rate and Success Rate dipped on RPO designs and were decidedly blah relative to the rest of the conference. 

Malzahn's modus operandi frequently pairs an inside zone read with a slot bubble screen. Though obviously he has other looks he likes, that play is clearly his bread and butter. With that design leading the way, nearly two-thirds of Auburn's RPOs came off zones. The Tigers averaged less Yards/Carry (5.29) than their RPO run mean, but zones buoyed their Success Rate (46.3%). Both power and draw RPOs' Success Rate hovered around 41%. The former was responsible for more breakaway runs, which puffed up its 6.16 Yards/Carry to into the SEC's top5. 

The big question for the Tigers this offseason is how will Chad Morris influence this unit moving forward. Without a spring game to help give us an idea, the real answer won't be known until the first game. RPOs have been a staple under the Malzahn era. So, it will be interesting to see if they lose share in their script. If they remain, a familiar request would be to add more vertical elements for route tags. That isn't to say folks are recommending to completely do away with the bubbles and hitches, but those routes just don't challenge safeties quite like slants, skinnys, or fades. 

LSU:


RPO Rush Attempt MakeupRPO Rush Yard MakeupOVR Yards/CarryRPO Yards/CarryOVR Run SuccessRPO Run Success
LSU48.7%58.1%5.646.7352.6%49.5%

The metamorphosis LSU's offense undertook last year was one of the most singular one-reason turnarounds in the history of the game. Beleaguered by an archaic scheme that couldn't maximize its talent, LSU reinvigorated itself by adopting spread principles. In terms of RPOs, no team featured less on average than the Bayou Bengals in 2018. They were the only SEC offense to dedicate less than a tenth of their plays to these designs. But once Joe Brady's influence instilled itself within Steve Ensminger's play calling, RPO usage nearly tripled year-over-year. Of course, we all know how it ended. With those an other pass-happy aspects, LSU went from one of the least successful offenses within the conference to one of the most potent units ever. 

It's easy to fixate on how this offensive evolution affected Joe Burrow. Setting records onto the way of securing the Heisman, Burrow's league-leading 60.7% Success Rate got even better when LSU called RPOs. Having one of the best receiving corps in the nation at your flank is never a bad thing. Like his overall clip, Burrow's 65.9% Success Rate in this context topped all other SECers. But while RPOs accomplished their goal of allowing Burrow to better manage down and distance, no other qualifier saw his Yards/Attempt dip as much as his 2.82 points from his cumulative figure. Still, his 7.98 Yards/RPO Attempt cracked the top5. 

Going spread helped LSU take care of business inside the box. Since their three-headed monster at receiver (and sure-handed tight end) consistently threatened all over the field, defenses relented in letting the Tigers bruise them inside. LSU's 2.68 Yards Before Contact average improved to 3.07 on RPO plays. Both clips finished inside the conference's top5. In 2018, LSU averaged less than 2.05 yards in both facets; Tennessee was the only other SEC offense to be so futile at forging run lanes. Despite being one of the best offenses around, LSU suffered from a very high Run Havoc Rate (36.5%). By a percentage basis, only Texas A&M and Vanderbilt owned worse clips overall last season. But on RPOs, that rate was more than cut in half to 16.2% and was good enough to share the 5-spot within the SEC. But despite less mess playing a factor, LSU's Success Rate and Explosive Run Rate worsened on RPOs even if they averaged over a yard more per carry on average. 

Like a good deal of teams, zone looks made up the majority of their RPO runs. More than 65% of LSU's RPO carries and yards were off zone looks. But power wrinkles were where LSU exhibited more pop. While averaging 7.18 Yards/Carry -- the most of any SEC offense last year -- RPO powers found success on about 55% of tries. Both easily trumped their zone counterparts. Out of empty sets, the Tigers occasionally dabbled with Draw RPOs. Though a few worthwhile snaps occurred, both of these look's Yards/Carry (6.19) and Success Rate (37.5%) brought down the team average. 

The genie is out of the bottle, and there is no chance LSU is reverting to the old ways of doing things in 2020. Featuring RPOs should help Myles Brennan find his footing and help the Tigers find consistency if the dropback patterns that wowed last year fall flat. Plus, the playmakers on the outside should help the sledding inside much like last year. 

Ole Miss:


RPO Rush Attempt MakeupRPO Rush Yard MakeupOVR Yards/CarryRPO Yards/CarryOVR Run SuccessRPO Run Success
Ole Miss50.2%52.6%5.806.0041.5%40.8%

Like LSU, Ole Miss underwent quite a face change offensively. Phil Longo's pass-happy offense soon became Rich Rodriguez's little bastard. RPOs might as well have been this offense's life blood. Adjusting to personnel on the fly with underclassmen and never finding much consistently, Ole Miss leaned more and more on the ground as the year progressed. RPOs were responsible for half of their total production running the ball. Q-runs, spread-power designs, and plenty of typical inside zone reads littered their script. And when I mean plenty, I mean a hell-freakin'-lot. Only Kentucky, Georgia and Vanderbilt logged a higher Zone RPO Makeup than Ole Miss's 76.5% share. Outside of UK, the Rebels were the only SEC offense to break the 1,000 yard plateau off these looks. 

Despite the flash, Ole Miss's ground game in general only produced 10-plus runs at an average clip within the conference (16.8%). But their 41.5% Success Rate was was Jeff Fisher mediocre. On RPOs, their Explosive Run Rate shrunk to 13.5% with their Success Rate dipping to 40.8%. As John Rhys Plumlee emerged, Ole Miss went with more straightforward opportunities for him to show off his speed in the run game. Of course by a Yards/Carry basis, both outputs were basically the same. Thanks to the advantage Q-runs give an offense, Ole Miss averaged a little more Yards Before Contact (2.30) on their overall figure than their RPO one (2.13). But as a sign to their big play ability, they were the only team that averaged over 3.69 rush yards after contact overall and on RPOs. Their respective clips both were second best in the conference. 

Matt Corral is the only passer who saw gains in Yards/Attempt, Success Rate, and First Down+Touchdown Rate. But these margins are as slim as can be. Plus, his rankings in these stats are forgettable.  Plumlee on the other hand, worsened in both areas with his Success Rate sinking by over 7 percentage points. With only one standout receiver, their offense became rather predictable and hence ineffective. While it had variety, Ole Miss was more-so contained even if they made highlights. To recap both Ole Miss's Explosive Run Rate and Yards/Carry were rather pedestrian relative to the conference, their RPO pass game was a net negative (Plumlee's putrid pass was the culprit there), and the Rebels dedicated a bunch of plays towards these designs. 

But, that was last year and everything is anew with Lane Kiffin in Oxford. With the atypical offseason, no one is still for sure on who exactly will start at quarterback. Most analytics say Matt Corral is the safer passer, even if Plumlee has wheels. RPOs should stick around, but I'll be shocked if they once again make up more than half of their rushing numbers. 

Mississippi State:


RPO Rush Attempt MakeupRPO Rush Yards MakeupOVR Yards/CarryRPO Yards/CarryOVR Run SuccessRPO Run Success
Mississippi State40.4%44.9%5.976.6247.4%48.9%

One of Joe Moorhead's big selling points is that he has been a big believer in using RPOs to provide variety and potency to his offenses. Though he claimed one of his past offenses tagged routes on about 80% of his runs, his love for RPOs has mellowed by those standards considerably. Still, the Bulldogs' 26.8% RPO Rate held the 5-spot within the conference. With his coaching acumen on these designs, Mississippi State was one of six SEC offenses to show gains on RPO runs in both Yards/Carry and Success Rate compared to its overall figures. Both their 6.62 of the former and 48.9% of the latter ranked as the SEC's fourth-best. 

Already one of the best units gobbling up yards before contact, the Bulldogs upped the ante on RPOs. Moving from 2.93 to 3.36 in that respect, only Kentucky and Georgia proved better. It didn't hurt both their overall and RPO Yards After Contact clips made the top5 either. Both facets were equally incendiary for Mississippi State. Their overall Explosive Run Rate and RPO counterpart both sat atop the SEC with a 23% clip. 

Their quarterbacks also benefited from Moorhead's guidance on RPOs. Tommy Stevens Completion% and Success Rate were 23 and 8.6 percentage points better than his overall figures, respectively. Garrett Shrader's 56.3% Success Rate cracked the SEC's top5. He was one of the four SECers to see his Yards/Attempt on RPOs trump his cumulative one. 

With a hitch-and-ride mesh point, the "read" process of the play had an extra beat or two to present where to go with the ball. Moreover, the Bulldogs won these battles. Also, Mississippi State's concept share was one of the more balanced ones within the SEC. Sure, they dedicated over 58% of their RPO runs to zones; but powers and draws were fairly common as well. In fact, the Bulldogs were rather ho-hum on their zone plays. Both their Yards/Carry and Success Rate on those looks brought down their average. Power wrinkles generated their best results. And, it’s not even close. On those plays, the Bulldog's put up a league-high 61.8% Success Rate and a top3 Yards/Carry. Draws weren't too shabby either. Mostly of the running back flair motion QB draw variation, Mississippi State averaged 6.94 per pop on a 47.1% Success Rate on draw RPO runs. 

Too many self-inflicted wounds undid the Moorhead Era. And I'm positive Mike Leach's definition of balanced doesn't mean leaning on RPOs or giving equal weight to running the ball. Though Kylin Hill in his backfield might cause the Air Raid to fly low to the ground, the pass-happy approach should see this tactic lose a lot of reps in 2020. 

Texas A&M:


RPO Rush Attempt Makeup

RPO Rush Yard MakeupOVR Yards/CarryRPO Yards/CarryOVR Run SuccessRPO Run Success
Texas A&M29.8%25.6%5.614.8049.4%42.1%

Though read options are featured heavily, RPOs are infrequently utilized relative to the rest of the conference down in College Station. Only Tennessee and Georgia had a lower RPO Rate than Texas A&M's 17.6% clip; the former being the SEC only team who held a lower RPO run makeup than the Aggies. At least it was an increase from their 10.9% RPO Rate from 2018. Looking above, you can see Texas A&M dedicated a higher percentage of reps than the percentage of yardage they gained off RPO runs. That's not a good start. But I'll keep going. Perhaps being the product of learning a new trade, Jimbo Fisher's pro-style was objectively worse on RPOs rush attempts. Only Missouri and Tennessee averaged a worse Yards/Carry in this context. Their third-ranked Success Rate tumbled to mediocre levels. 

Again, read options without route tags were common within this scheme. While their backs were not-so-special, Kellen Mond was one of the conference's most successful rushers because of his knack to make a difference on those plays. Mostly running towards space, he ballooned the team's Success Rate. He seldom kept the ball on RPOs as he dished it off to a receiver if the back didn't get the handoff. No SEC passers saw a bigger increase in their Completion% between their overall clip and their one targeting RPOs than Kellen Mond. His percentage saw a differential of 27.8 points. And while the Aggies' Success Rate sunk over seven points on RPO runs, Mond's ascended by eight. 

In general, the Aggies owned a Yards Before Contact clip that was the conference average (2.32). This worsened on RPOs to 1.87, a bottom-5 figure within the SEC. Another side effect to Mond being a ball carrier was his knack for compiling 10-plus yard runs. Nearly a fourth of his designed carries met that criteria. And to reiterate, most occurred on straight read options, but Q-stretch plays also played a part. No other Aggie ball carrier with 30 touches came close to challenging his Explosive Run Rate. So, Mond was a big reason why their Yards Before Contact figure gets skewed in comparison. 

They followed the consensus with zones leading the way in makeup. Nearly 73% of their RPO runs were characterized as such. But what really stunk up their profile was their rancid returns on power designs. Making up a little less than a fifth of their total RPO carries, powers only netted 2.90 yards on average. I'm sure you can guess this was near the conference floor. This look's 30% Success Rate was at the bottom of the barrel. Zone looks held a below average Yards/Carry but a Success Rate slightly above the SEC mean at 43.6%. Draw RPOs -- particularly featuring Mond with flair motion from the back -- carried the mantle. Averaging 6.89 Yards/Carry, only Kentucky boasted a better Success Rate on Draw RPOs within the conference. These designs made up roughly a tenth of TAMU's RPO runs. 

Mond's production will either vault Texas A&M into title contention or keep them rooted in the good-not-great realm. He offers the highest floor of any SEC passer entering 2020. Since RPOs seemingly helped Mond manage down and distance, I'd say Fisher will continue to sprinkle them into his script this season. While focusing on short stuff in general was overly their methodology last year, this offense needs to find ways to produce more big gainers consistently. 

Florida:


RPO Rush Attempt MakeupRPO Rush Yards Attempt MakeupOVR Yards/CarryRPO Yards/CarryOVR Run SuccessRPO Run Success
Florida51.7%49.7%5.024.8338.9%33.2%

Florida owned the SEC's least successful run game in 2019. On a per carry basis, their 5.02 clip comfortably sat in the conference's bottom4. Only their quarterbacks broke the 42% Success Rate plateau of their ball carriers with at least 30 touches. Manufacturing room to run hindered the Gators throughout the season. Rushing Success Rate and Yards Before Contact have a high degree of correlation. And that should make sense. It's a helluva lot easier to run the ball without having to constantly make tacklers miss. After all, the shortest distance between two points is a straight line. While the offense stayed afloat thanks to Kyle Trask's direction, no other run game was less consistent down-to-down. Over 56% of their total carries gained 3 yards or less; a tenth went for a loss. 

Despite using RPOs at the fourth highest rate overall within the SEC, Florida's already inefficient run game deflated on such snaps. Florida was one of three SEC offenses to dedicate a higher percentage of carries than the yardage they generated off RPO runs. Looking above, you can see their Success Rate on RPO runs dwindled by over five percentage points compared to Florida's overall clip. Again, failing to produce cushion laid the groundwork for their futility. As bad as their 1.94 Yards Before Contact was, it further deteriorated on RPO plays to 1.51. Only the Volunteers proved worse within the conference in those respects. Even though the Gators reduced Havoc plays at a far greater clip compared to overall carries, early defensive contact saw their middling Explosive Run Rate shrink a few points to 12.7% on RPOs and fall into the bottom4. For what it's worth, Florida's rushers averaged 3.23 Yards After Contact in both facets. 

As maddening as those numbers are for the Gators' ground game, Trask saw his Yards/Attempt, Success Rate, Completion% and First Down+Touchdown Rate improve on RPOs. Looking at the latter, his 13.1 percentage point increase dwarfed all other SECers. Only four others saw a gain in this context with none owning an increase greater than a percentage point. While their line was far from the best, Florida's cavalcade of receivers did considerable damage in space. Outside of Alabama, no SEC team averaged more yards after the catch than the Swamp Dwellers' 6.79 clip. But while Trask and his outlets kicked ass in these spots, only Joe Burrow and Jarrett Guarantano owned a lower percentage of throws targeting RPO route tags. 

In terms of being balanced with run schemes on RPOs, Florida was one of the better offenses. One reason was due to the fact inside zones were disastrous on a per snap basis. Dan Mullen, being the sound play caller he is, recognized power wrinkles needed more chances because of that. Roughly 55% of their RPO runs were zones, 41% were powers, and another 4% were draws. Zones averaged a mere 4.10 Yards/Carry and 30.3% Success Rate. Only Tennessee's offense produced less favorable results. Powers still weren't special. But averaging 5.45 per pop with 36% of reps resulting in success made them far more preferable in comparison. Draws presented the best returns. Only Kentucky averaged more Yards/Carry than their 8.43 clip; but the look's 42.9% Success Rate was rather average. 

Mullen is a coach who always works to make his quarterback's job easier. He loves play actions and screens. Plus, you can tell he's willing to let his run game suffer if it can help raise the floor of his passer via RPOs. While Trask is far from perfect, he'll need to replicate much of what he did during his breakout campaign. It goes without saying, however, the Gators won't contend for a title if their run game once again finishes at the bottom of the SEC in Success Rate. 

Georgia:


RPO Rush Attempt MakeupRPO Rush Yard MakeupOVR Yards/CarryRPO Yards/CarryOVR Run SuccessRPO Run Success
Georgia18.1%22.6%5.496.8547.8%52.3%

The loudest and most obvious criticism of Georgia's offense the last few years is that it's unimaginative, basic, and very straightforward. Though there are a few misdirection elements, it's not particularly modern. Only Tennessee had RPOs compose a lower play share than their 14.9% clip inside the SEC last year. Georgia opted to stay in their inside zone rut and play their brand of football paired with an elite defense. Though that style got them to the SEC title game, it was apparent UGA's offense lost its mojo halfway through the season. Perhaps if RPOs were incorporated sooner, 2019 could have unfolded a little more differently. Georgia was one of the six SEC offense who saw both is Yards/Carry and Success Rate improve on RPO runs. Only Kentucky averaged more per RPO rush; only Alabama sported better down-to-down consistency. 

I like to believe RPOs worked due to the personnel Georgia had in place rather than working as elements of surprise. Though zone reads were plentiful, Fromm obviously wasn't a playmaker as a ball carrier, and opponents treated him as such. More attention went towards neutralizing their backs, which overly worked containing this unit. Having an outlet to flip it too, on the other hand, certainly challenged teams from overloading the tackle box. Overall, the 'Dawgs averaged 2.49 Yards Before Contact. Though still a top5 clip, its far from world-beater territory. On RPO runs, however, no SEC bested Georgia's 3.62 clip; not even the Big Blue Wall. Their 9.88% Run Havoc Rate on RPOs also sat atop the conference rankings, which was about 2x better than their 22.8% clip overall. With more cushion, UGA's talented backs were able to create more explosive carries. The 'Dawgs 17.5% Explosive Run Rate ticked up to 19.8% on RPOs -- good for the SEC's bronze medal. This helped Georgia’s 1.36 increase in Yards/Carry. No other conference offense experienced such improvement on RPOs compared to their cumulative number. 

Despite popular belief, Fromm sported an average RPO Throw Rate within the SEC. Granted their bowl game helped skew his sample, but 13.5% of his targets came off RPOs. Though his Yards/Attempt moved backwards in these spots, his Success Rate, First Down+Touchdown Rate, and Completion% improved by 12.2, 0.9, and 14.2 percentage points, respectively. Georgia cracked the top5 in yards after the catch off RPOs with a 5.54 average. 

Knowing Georgia's modus operandi, it shouldn't shock zones commanded a very large portion of their RPO rush attempts. Powers plays made up less than a tenth of their such tries. Other than zones being their preferred way to move the ball on the ground in general, the numbers back up their usage. Though powers still yielded very good returns relative to the rest of the conference, zones beefed up UGA’s RPO output to the tune of a 6.91 Yards/Carry and 53.3% Success Rate. No SEC offense topped the latter last season. 

With so much change this offseason, no one is for certain on what exactly we'll see from Todd Monken directing this unit. Though losing core starters upfront and their lead back to the pros might have them second guess their RPO usage, implementing more of these than in year's past is bound to help whoever wins the quarterback battle between Jamie Newman and JT Daniels. Both came from offenses where RPOs saw plenty of reps. 

Kentucky:


RPO Rush Attempt MakeupRPO Rush Yard MakeupOVR Yards/CarryRPO Yards/CarryOVR Run SuccessRPO Run Success
Kentucky38.1%44.9%6.777.9946.9%48.0%

Kentucky changed its narrative midseason pulling a very unconventional move. In the age where offenses are looking for more ways to maximize throwing the ball, the Cats went another direction opting to put the ball in their best player's hands on the ground. The Lynnsanity offense showed you can still win plenty of games focusing on the run.. assuming you have a total game changer running the ball and one of the best offensive lines in the nation. Debuting in Week 7, it took a few weeks for this new approach to mesh and find success. UK's Rushing Success Rate the first three games playing Bowden Ball actually looked up to its pedestrian clip over their first five games. Still after that point in the season, no SEC offense could challenge the Cats potency on the ground. 

RPOs were featured throughout the year. But during the first month of Lynnsanity, route tags were nothing more than eye candy. But as Bowden became more comfortable running things **literally** -- he soon bought into the idea of occasionally stealing easy yards on the perimeter with a hitch or bubble screen. With that added threat and the numbers advantage the Cats possessed frequently leaning into Q-runs, this offense paraded down the stretch. Their aptly-named Big Blue Wall of an OLine helped the Cats be the only SEC offense to average over 2.94 Yards Before Contact. UK's clip was 3.31 across all runs. Though Georgia bested their mark on RPO carries, their figure still crept up to 3.39. With route tags pulling box defenders more laterally, opponents found themselves in more compromising positions. This translated to more missed tackles and the Cats sporting the SEC's best Yards After Contact clip at 4.52. No other conference offense topped 3.80 yards in this context. In general, a fifth of UK's total carries went for 10-plus. For the reasons I mentioned, Kentucky was even more explosive on RPO runs. Only Mississippi State bested their 22.3% such Explosive Run Rate. It bears mentioning, this wasn't all Bowden. But, he certainly was the CATalyst

No SEC offense topped the Cats by on a per carry basis in either facet. While their 46.9% overall Rushing Success Rate was rather ordinary relative to the rest of the conference, their 48% clip on RPOs was top5 worthy. Scheme wise, 80% of Kentuckys RPO carries came off zones. Though it brought down their average, UK's 7.79 Yards/Carry led the conference. Even though draw RPOs only accounted for 4% of their reps, their returns jump off the screen. Thanks to Bowden being a magician in space, these designs averaged 16.8 per rep on a 75% Success Rate. 

What happened in the bluegrass last year might have been a one-time deal. Though Terry Wilson is capable of running a spread-run scheme in a similar fashion, most assume the Cats will go back to being balanced. Either way, RPOs proved to enhance an already sturdy rushing attack. And with Wilson returning from injury, they could help him regain his confidence slinging the pill. 

Missouri:


RPO Rush Attempt MakeupRPO Rush Yards MakeupOVR Yards/CarryRPO Yards/CarryOVR Run SuccessRPO Run Success
Missouri31.3%31.3%4.344.3539.9%41.7%

Missouri's offense was maligned by futile designs, an incredibly high amount of broken plays, and mental errors. No SEC team sported a higher Drop Rate, Broken Play Rate, or percentage of total snaps that netted three yards or less. The excitement Kelly Bryant brought quickly fizzled after a Week 1 loss. The fanfare around this offense that had lit up scoreboards the previous couple of seasons with Drew Lock dissipated in the coming weeks with Missouri becoming as constipated as grandma without her Metamucil. In 2018, RPOs had helped Lock pad his Completion%, steal easy yards, and lull secondaries before going deep. In the end, 31.6% of their plays came off RPOs, good for the SEC's third highest rate. For whatever reason, Derek Dooley opted to reduce these looks in favor of more straight read options last fall. Missouri's 18.5% RPO Rate was the conference's fourth lowest clip. Yet, Missouri was one of the six SEC offenses whose Yards/Carry and Success Rate improved on RPOs. 

Though their figures were far worse year over year, RPOs helped the Tigers average more yards per contact on runs. Their 1.68 clip overall only topped South Carolina, Vanderbilt, and Florida (it was 2.25 in 2018). On RPO carries, Missouri inched up to 1.75 in that respect but fell into the bottom3 within the SEC, which was a whole yard worse than their 2.86 figure from two years ago. Even though their rate of ripping off 10-plus yard runs worsened on RPOs, Missouri's 35.8% Run Havoc Rate was cut in half on RPOs to 16.4%. With less mess, the Tigers found a little more consistency running the rock; but obviously neither facet proved to substantially help. 

Bryant was one of the five SEC passers with an RPO Throw Rate in the single-digits. Though his Success Rate on such attempts improved by 5.5 percentage points compared to his cumulative figure, that was an average increase from our passer sample. Plus, his Yards/Attempt crashed 2.72 yards. Only Joe Burrow experienced a higher dropoff in this context. 

While RPOs were featured less, Dooley balanced between zone and power looks fairly well. He also incorporated Draw RPOs at the fifth highest rate within the conference. Their zone plays stayed consistent with an unassuming 4.35 average but helped prop up Missouri's RPO Run Success Rate with a 45.5% clip. While power looks averaged a little more on a per carry basis, only 39.2% met situational goals. The affinity for draw RPOs really upended Missouri's output in this context. Averaging a dismal 2.90 Yards/Carry, these designs only sported a 30% Success Rate. 

Missouri is now looking to rebuild and start fresh. Though both of their lead backs return, I have major concerns about the Tigers' short term success with the personnel they have at their disposal. Though RPOs helped some last year, the gains weren't enough to point to anything positive moving forward. Still, they helped a run game find more room to run and consistency in back-to-back seasons. 

South Carolina:


RPO Rush Attempt MakeupRPO Rush Yard MakeupOVR Yards/CarryRPO Yards/CarryOVR Run SuccessRPO Run Success
South Carolina33.4%36.6%5.265.7642.2%42.4%

South Carolina's methodology somewhat handcuffed themselves last season. With Ryan Hilinski needing a West Coast scheme that relies heavily on short timing routes and a run game rooted in power schemes, defenses gladly stacked boxes and easily contained the Gamecocks. With their backs bred to bruise and bludgeon, South Carolina led the conference in average rush yards after contact with a 3.75 clip. But thanks to subpar blocking and nearby obstacles, no SEC offense put up a worse 1.28 Yards Before Contact. Lacking splash plays, SCar's ground game did little to aid their young passer. 

But since a good deal of their dropback concepts in addition to a high screen rate kept a high level of Hilinski's targets close to the line of scrimmage, pairing that approach off read options helped forge more cushion to operate. On RPO runs, the Gamecocks Yards Before Contact average crept up to 2.14. The extra room spurred a higher rate of explosive carries. Though their 14.2% cumulative clip only topped Tennessee, RPO runs saw 16.3% of their chances go for least 10-plus. That clip just missed being inside the SEC's top5. RPOs also helped South Carolina's Run Havoc Rate enhance by about 9 percentage points. 

Of the 16 SEC passers in our sample, none owned a lower Yards/Attempt than Hilinski's 5.79 figure. He averaged even less per RPO throw. Still, his Success Rate near the conference floor was boosted by 13 points. Though far from the best, his 52.7% such clip beat the sample mean. His numbers in this regard probably would’ve been better if South Carolina didn't log the SEC's fourth lowest Yards After Catch average. 

No SEC offense balanced run concepts across RPOs better than South Carolina. Zones were responsible for 43% of rushes with powers and draw wrinkles commanding 45% and 12%, respectively. They were the only conference offense to have powers own a higher play share than zones. But their reasonings for that were more preference than result-driven. On RPO power runs, the Gamecocks only averaged 5.04 Yards/Carry on a 37.7% Success Rate. Both zone and draw RPOs inflated their cumulative RPO rush output. Both averaged over 6.1 yards and at least a 42.9% Success Rate. The zone variety's 47.1% clip was the SEC's fourth best. Only Florida and Kentucky topped their 7.21 Yards/RPO draw on the ground. 

Muschamp's oversight remains as does Hilinski behind center. But Mike Bobo has replaced Bryan McClendon as play caller. With the young passer having a lot of holes in his game and South Carolina losing its top backs and best receiver, things could get worse before they get better in Columbia. 

Tennessee:


RPO Rush Attempt MakeupRPO Rush Yard MakeupOVR Yard/CarryRPO Yards/CarryOVR Run SuccessRPO Run Success
Tennessee10.8%8.56%4.593.6340.6%25.6%

Unequivocally, Tennessee was the worst RPO team in the SEC last year. So it's a damn good thing they turned to RPOs at the lowest rate within the conference. They were the only team to see less than a tenth of their total plays categorized as such. This notion carried over to their run game. Already a mundane offense, failing to be effective on RPOs made them more and more watered down as the year progressed. Looking above, it's never a good look to average 3.63 Yards/Carry on a 25.6% Success Rate in any context. With a 15 percentage point drop off in the latter, it more than doubled the next worst dip within the conference. Tennessee was the only offense to average less than 4.3 Yards/Carry on RPOs. 

From two-tight undercenter looks, the Volunteers found more success playing old-school than riding these modern designs. Though they were one of the five SEC offenses that averaged under 2 Yards Before Contact overall, no one was worse in this respect on RPOs. The Vols 1.97 cumulative clip sank to 1.50 yards on these snaps. With the odds stacked against their backs, results were anchored near the conference floor. It also hurt no SEC offense averaged less yards AFTER contact off RPOs either. A fifth of their RPO carries suffered from some form of Havoc, which placed them in the bottom5. With very, very little room to work and being bad making guys miss, Tennessee was the only SEC offense to see less than a tenth of their RPO runs net 10-plus yards on average. Their three such carries by volume were nine less than the next fewest within the conference. 

While Brian Maurer was aided by RPOs, Jarrett Guarantano certainly wasn't. Though his Completion% boosted up by about 6 points in comparison, his Success Rate fell off a cliff. His 10.9 point decline from his overall clip was the biggest dropoff of any SEC passer last season. Only LSU and Arkansas' receivers averaged less than Tennessee’s 3.89 Yards After Catch figure. 

Following the conference trend, roughly two-thirds of their RPO runs were off zones. But while those plays helped pad their Yards/Carry, zone RPO rushes only netted a 24.1% Success Rate. Look, you get the picture. Tennessee was remarkably bad no matter how you slice it. While their offense might feature them more in 2020, there's literally nothing I can point to in order to recommend that course. 

Vanderbilt:


RPO Rush Attempt MakeupRPO Rush Yard MakeupOVR Yards/CarryRPO Yards/CarryOVR Run SuccessRPO Run Success
Vanderbilt34.6%35.9%4.985.1842.9%36.1%

Vanderbilt mostly rode a pro-style scheme when Kyle Shurmur was in town. Only LSU featured less RPO plays on average than the Commodores in 2018. In order to maximize grad-tranfer Riley Neal who had mostly operated in a spread scheme, Vandy owned a 21.6% RPO Rate this past season. The results largely made them one of the least threatening offenses in the SEC. Though some players within their ranks held some renown, the scheme at work failed to make a difference or help them compete within the conference. 

Only South Carolina averaged a crappier Yards Before Contact overall than Vanderbilt's 1.53 clip. At least, RPOs helped the 'Dores in that respect. Though still a bottom4 clip, it increased to 1.78 on RPOs. Despite more cushion on average, Vandy sat in the bottom3 in Explosive Run Rate and Run Havoc Rate in these spots. And while their Yards/Carry saw gains, Vandy's RPO Rushing Success Rate looked up to their cumulative figure. 

No SEC passer's Success Rate increased as much as Neal's RPO throws. His clip targeting RPOs was 14.8 percentage points higher than his overall Success Rate. Though not overly scary, Vanderbilt's receivers only trailed Florida’s and Alabama’s in terms of YAC average off RPOs. But with his Yards/Attempt souring and a flaccid run game, it's hard to say featuring these plays more was a net positive. 

Only Georgia dedicated more RPO runs to zones. Just under 90% of Vandy's such runs were zones. Power wrinkles, on these snaps, made their already blah results even more dismissible. Only a third resulted in success while averaging 2.33 Yards/Carry. 

At the point, it's hard to be excited about anything about the Derek Mason stint in Nashville. Quite frankly, no SEC team has a lower ceiling than the 'Dores this season. They lose their three best players and have no real play maker to turn to offensively. The Anchor is Down, alright. And it's crashing to the bottom of the sea with no sign of a lifesaver. 

Season