The 2020 All-StatCat Offensive Skill Team

It's that time of the year where everyone rolls out their All-Conference squads. Sadly, I am not immune to this cliche prompt. But, where I deviate from the hacks and cookie cutters is the basis for my selections. Followers of my work know I tend to do things a little bit differently, and I'm not stopping now. Unlike the vast majority of people who compose teams like this, I am disregarding all volume stats like total yards and touchdowns in favor of efficiency-based metrics that better gauge a player's bang-for-buck abilities. If all you care about are the traditional stats, there's literally thousands of other All-Conference teams to peruse elsewhere. This will undoubtedly anger the diehards and gridiron neanderthals, but that's half the fun!

For each of our four offensive skill positions, I chose four key metrics that determined our team. Based on where one finished in the rankings determines the weighted point total they receive. (For instance if a player finished in first in a category, they would be rewarded 4 points. Second gets 3, third, gets 2, fourth gets 1. If a player had a substantial lead in the category from the rest of the pack, they were awarded an additional point). The players with the highest combined score across the chosen key metrics made the cut. 

QUARTERBACK

Depth Adjusted Accuracy%, First Down+TD Rate, Success Rate, and Expected Points Added/Play are the four key QB metrics that helped form our team. To me, no skill is more crucial to a passer than downfield accuracy. Knowing where to go with the ball is one thing; but if you can't get the ball to an open target, you aren't exhibiting value or expanding your offense's capabilities. Unlike Completion% that can be padded with short throws or screen+RPO attempts, DAA% applies more weight a pass travels downfield and assigns points whether it was accurate or not (regardless if its caught) and omit attempts behind the line of scrimmage. To take it one step further, I only examined our QBs on dropback attempts -- taking screens and RPOs out entirely. While ball placement is important, so are results. The rest of the QB metrics aim to reflect just that. 

1st Team: Mac Jones, 13 composite points

As the national leader in QBR, EPA, and Wins Above Replacement, Jones is a slam dunk case to be first team All-Statcat. While his dropback accuracy has dipped as the year has progressed, the Tider is still among the SEC's four best exhibiting downfield accuracy. Much of that comes from his elite intermediate passing ability. Jones' 71.3% Accuracy is the conference’s best by 6 percentage points. No one else sports a Depth Adjusted Accuracy or Completion% that are both in the 70’s on throws 11-19 yards downfield. Still, he made the first team thanks to overseeing some of the best offensive football in the country. Jones' 0.70 EPA/play is 0.12 more than the next man in line (that's a lot). Situationally, 62.6% of his dropback passes have been successful and 56.5% have resulted in either a first down or a score. 

2nd Team: Kyle Trask, 9 composite points

The SEC's volume king through the air still delivered plenty of value across his many, many pass attempts. Other than Mac Jones, Trask was the only other conference passer to fall inside the top4 in our four key metrics. Trask's strongest stat was his 60.6% Success Rate, which holds the SEC's silver medal entering bowl season. The Gator has sported a slightly better Depth Adjusted Accuracy than Jones with a 56.6% clip on dropbacks. Plus, his 51.5% 1D+TD Rate and 0.52 EPA/play are good for conference's 3rd-best. Trask was a bit lucky avoiding interceptions across his 31 turnover-worthy throws this season, but made his fair share of big time throws. No SECer matched his 32 deep completions. And when he was kept clean, Trask's 18.5% Explosive Pass Rate and 11.5% Passing TD Rate were tops within the conference. 

3rd Team: JT Daniels, 9 composite points

JT Daniels has not been an overly accurate passer this season, but his results are hard to knock. Despite his 9.86% Interceptable Pass Rate being a bottom5 clip and a 40.2% Depth Adjusted Accuracy that barely bests Stetson Bennett's, only Jones has produced a preferable EPA/play than Daniel's 0.58 figure within the SEC. On dropbacks, no one tops his 57.1% First Down+TD Rate. Georgia's passing game was maligned with one of the highest Uncatchable Target Rates prior to Daniels insertion into the lineup. The wasted chances plummeted even if the top-tier accuracy was lacking. Bulldog pass catchers at least had opportunities to make a stab at passes instead of watching it sail over their heads. Only Feleipe Franks owns a better Adjusted Completion% on deep attempts amongst SECers. But the area where Daniels really provided value was on the money down. With a third of Daniels' 3rd Down chances resulting in a TD, his 72.2% Success Rate, 27.8% Explosive Pass Rate, and 83.3% Completion, and 14.6 Y/A all lead the SEC by significant margins. 

Honorable Mention: Matt Corral and Feleipe Franks

Matt Corral sports the SEC's 4th-best First Down+TD Rate, Success Rate, and Expected Points Added/play. When he was on, he lit up the conference's best defense. When he was off, he logged at least five interceptions in 2 separate games. All in all, Corral dons the conference's 5th-best Depth Adjusted Accuracy and is the only other SECer beside Jones or Trask with a double-digit Passing TD Rate on dropbacks. Even if he biffs it in his bowl game, Corral has a chance to enter 2021 as the SEC's best passer thanks to his well-rounded resume. 

Feleipe Franks was the SEC's most accurate passer as far as Depth Adjusted Accuracy is concerned. On dropbacks, his 62.8% clip was the closest any one in the conference came to matching Joe Burrow's 64.6% figure from last year. Though granted a good amount of RPO patterns, Franks stood out as a deep passer. His 64% Accuracy on throws 20+ yards downfield was the highest in the SEC by over 16 percentage points. In addition to that, Franks led the way with his 60% Completion/Success Rate. Situationally, his results were mediocre. But since I really value accuracy, I felt he deserved some recognition. 

RUNNING BACK

Much of a back's ground production is reliant on adequate blocking up front. Any ball carrier can gallop through space; but far fewer can consistently do damage after contact. Since no singular area helps separate the okay rushers than the great ones than what they do after they engage with defenders, I decided to include Broken Tackle Rate and average rush yards after contact to help pick our All-StatCat running backs. While a dependable ability to shed defenders is nice, our backs still had to take care of business and be efficient with their tries. 

1st Team: Chris Rodriguez, 11 composite points

No SEC back was more bang-for-buck this season than UK's Chris Rodriguez. In addition to owning a league-high 68.3% Success Rate, "Baby Benny" sported the conference's top First Down+TD Rate with a 44.1% clip. That might not come as a major shocker due to the fact he dons the SEC's best Y/C. Still, his 6.86 clip is all the more impressive thanks to a conference-high 4.42 rush yards after contact. average Though his tackle breaking is down year-over-year, he once again produced a top3 EPA/play within the SEC. This level of efficiency isn't a fluke. Looking at his play vs. SEC defenses last year, C-Rod finished with a top5 Success Rate and the 2nd-best Yards/Carry, rush yards after contact average, First Down+TD Rate, and Explosive Run Rate. His 42.2% Broken Tackle Rate and 2.22% Negative Run Rate each were the best. As a bruiser, Rodriguez shined as a late down specialist this fall. Only one of his 19 3rd/4th down carries failed to move the chains or cross the plain. 

2nd Team: Kenny McIntosh, 7 composite points

This selection is probably the first one that will have folks up in arms. I know some must be screaming, "How does a back with only 42 carries, 234 yards, and one TD find himself among the most statistically pleasing rushers in the conference?" Well, Kenny McIntosh is a load to bring down. In my piece looking at 40 offensive superlatives across the conference, McIntosh earned the title of the SEC's Hardest Rusher to Tackle thanks to stout 54.8% Broken Tackle Rate. No other conference ball carrier cracked 43%. Despite averaging a bottom12 rush yards before contact clip within the SEC, McIntosh's 52.4% Success Rate and 16.7% Explosive Run Rate snuck into the top10. The Bulldog is the only SECer that can make that claim. Though his 0.2 EPA/play is closer to average than elite, McIntosh played above his expectation. But looking at the rest of the backs at UGA's disposal, his workload remains murky moving forward. 

3rd Team: Tank Bigsby, 6 composite points

If you were to manufacture a running back's name with help of a computer algorithm, Tank Bigsby is hard to top. While Cartavious is his given name, let's keep rolling with the armored-trust moniker as it fits his running style to a T. Bigsby burst onto the scene as an elite tackle breaker. By volume, only Alabama's bell cow back Najee Harris logged more than his 59. By a rate basis, only the aforementioned Kenny McIntosh was more efficient than his 42% clip. Like the Bulldog, Bigsby's ability to shed tacklers really aided his ability to accumulate yards after contact. His 3.51 YAC average is the SEC's 4th-highest ahead of bowl season. In addition to racking up the conference's most yards off zone schemes, Bigsby had a knack for messing with tacklers' angles post handoff. No SEC rusher "cutback" on his tries more than his 29% clip. While he saw more volume than McIntosh, both finished with a similar EPA/play. 

Honorable Mention: Najee Harris, Brian Robinson, James Cook, and Ainias Smith

By volume and ability, Najee Harris is unquestionably one of if not the best back in the SEC. While plenty of highlight reels and award lists should hammer that point home, Harris is the only SEC rusher who is top8 in Success Rate, Broken Tackle Rate, Explosive Run Rate, Yards/Carry, and EPA/play when his team is either up or down 21 points. However, only his Broken Tackle Rate is top4 worthy within the conference. Though a do-it-all back and a dude I'd want on my team, Harris' dominance doesn't carry over per our key metrics. Again, we know Harris is good. Coming into 2020, he held the SEC's top Rushing Success Rate each of the previous two seasons. He was the only running back to log at least 35 carries in league play with a TD Rate in the double-digits this fall, which helped his 0.27 EPA/play crack the top5. But for the purposes of this exercise, he's on the outside looking in. 

Brian Robinson's output was inflated by garbage time carries. Nevertheless, his figures deserve some praise. Despite averaging the SEC's 6th-lowest rush yards before contact clip (1.51), Robinson finished with the 2nd-best Success Rate (61.5%), First Down+TD Rate (41%), and YAC average (3.67) in league play. When Harris needed a break, Robinson allowed Alabama's run game to continue to hum. Still in the grand scheme of things, a 0.16 EPA/play is totally forgettable in this conference. 

James Cook, the playmaker, finally started to shine this fall. While overly boom or bust prior to 2020, Cook owns the SEC's best EPA/play with a 0.41 figure entering bowl season. Joining Chris Rodriguez, he's the only other conference ball carrier with a Y/C and Success Rate over 6.7 yards and 60%, respectively. Despite his overall consistency and knack to bust a big run, Cook remains to be blah making guys miss or do damage when significant cushion isn't present. On a below average 22.2% Broken Tackle Rate, no conference rusher was gifted more than his 4.53 rush yards before contact average. 

As a factor back/slot receiver, Ainias Smith is one of the more well-rounded athletes in the conference. Though I feel he's more suited for the role of a receiver, Smith's playmaking bled through when asked to run. Only James Cook bests his 0.35 EPA/play as a rusher. Plus, Smith's 39.6% First Down+TD Rate and 58.3% Rushing Success Rate crack the conference's top4. But, his value comes from his big gainers. Thanks to a top5 Broken Tackle Rate and top8 YAC average, Smith's 20.8% Explosive Run Rate -- or percentage of runs that go for at least ten yards -- is an SEC-high. 

1st Team: Jaylen Waddle, 19 composite points

My adoration for Jaylen Waddle is pretty well-documented. Despite being overshadowed by one of the most talented collected of pass catchers in college football the last few years, Waddle arguably shined the brightest in his spot chances. Though his output by volume was never up to his peers thanks to his limited chances, his analytics consistently jumped off the screen. Before hurting his knee about a month into the season, Waddle was matching his incendiary figures and leading the conference in a number of spots. Flash forward to today and he sports the best clip in all four of our key metrics. While donning the SEC's best Deep Catch Rate for the third straight season, Waddle's overall 19.2 Y/T is tops by over six yards, his 68.9% Success Rate leads by over 14 percentage points, and his 1.42 EPA/play is 29% higher than the next SECer in line. This dude is good. If he had stayed healthy, I'm quite sure he would have made a killing during awards season. 

1st Team: Elijah Moore, 7 composite points

Elijah Moore has earned a few All-SEC teams thanks to being Ole Miss's leading receiver and compiling stats. But outside of the volume, Moore's play has been just as solid. Only Waddle bests his 54.5% First Down+TD Rate and 93% Depth Adjusted Catch Rate. Asked to do a lot for his offense, no SECer saw a higher share of their team's targets under pressure. Despite that, Moore managed to haul in every single one except one uncatchable attempt. Even passes off the mark hardly prevented Moore from showing off his skills. Both his raw 46.2% Catch Rate and 68.7% Depth Adjusted Catch Rate on inaccurate targets sit atop the conference entering bowl season. All the while, his 11.9 Y/T cracks the top4 within league play. 

2nd Team: DeVonta Smith, 3 composite points

Before you ask, yes, I feel a little silly putting the Associated Press's Offensive Player of the Year on my 2nd team All-StatCat squad. I am well-aware of his production and perception as an elite college receiver. (In case you were unaware, his 1,513 yards, 99 catches, and 17 TDs are 300, 13, and 5 more, respectively, than the next man in line.) Smith is one of the very best at creating opportunities for himself and manufacturing big plays in a variety of ways. He can take a bubble screen to the house, get butts out of seats with electric return skills, or win one-on-one deep downfield. Averaging 1.0 EPA/play, 53.9% of Smith's targets have resulted in either a first down or a score, which is the SEC's 3rd best entering bowl season. Of conference receivers with at least 29 targets, only Waddle has produced a more preferable Catching Success Rate than his 66.4% clip. 

2nd Team: Kadarious Toney

Kadarious Toney is a handful. When trying to decide who to double-team between him and Pitts, defensive coordinators opted to let Florida's tight end work more one-on-one. Opposing play callers were more worried about Toney doing damage than Pitts physicality. I don't know about you, but that carries an immense amount of weight for me. Statistically, Toney was PFF's top tackle breaker among pass catchers in the country and turned 53.5% of his chances into either a first down or score -- 4th-best in the SEC. The conference's third leading catcher by volume also sported a top5 Success Rate, Explosive Catch Rate, and Depth Adjusted Catch Rate among SEC receivers. As one of the most dependable weapons around, he was the league's most featured 3rd Down target. No other conference pass catchers top his 21 catches and 356 yards in those spots entering bowl season. 

3rd Team: Treylon Burks

Along with being Arkansas' most voluminous and successful receiver, Treylon Burks was one of the most efficient pass catchers within the SEC. On the conference's 4th-most yards and 8th-most catches, Burks delivered a top4 Y/T (12.1), top7 Success Rate (61.8%), and top10 Explosive Catch Rate (17.7%) in league play. His 0.83 EPA/play even edged out the likes of Kadarious Toney, Elijah Moore, and Terrance Marshall Jr to crack the SEC's top6 entering bowl season. 

3rd Team: Jaray Jenkins

Though Kayshon Boutte has been LSU's volume king the last several weeks, Jaray Jenkins has been the team's most valuable pass catcher this season. Despite falling short of 40 targets and 400 receiving yards, only Jaylen Waddle bests Jenkins' 1.10 EPA/play within the SEC. With help of the 5th-highest average depth of target, Jenkins' 10.5 Y/T and 17.3 Y/C are among the ten best among conference receivers. This comes despite Jenkins failing to catch roughly 40% of his targets. Even with one of the ten highest Uncatchable Pass Rates in the SEC, Jenkins is top10 within SEC play in Catching Success Rate, First Down+TD Rate, and Explosive Catch Rate.

Honorable Mention: John Metchie, Amir Abdur-Rahman

John Metchie emerged this season as a quality deep threat. On the SEC's 2nd-highest ADOT, the Tider put up the 2nd-best Y/T (12.8) and cracked the top5 in EPA/play (0.85). Thanks his his verticality, no conference player sports a higher Explosive Catch Rate -- or percentage of catches that net at least 20 -- than Metchie's 26.7% clip. If not for the fifth most drops in league play, Metchie's stat line would be even more impressive. 

Amir Adur-Rahman's inclusion will come with some ridicule since he played for the SEC's worst offense. But before you strain yourself with a eye roll that would make Liz Lemon proud, his 1.05 EPA/play was even better than DeVonta Smith's despite 18.6% of his targets being charted as uncatchable. Even with wayward tosses hindering his output, Adur-Rahman managed to finish above the conference mean in terms of Y/T and Success Rate. Only five conference pass catchers saw a lower percentage of their yards come after the catch than his 24.4% clip. With hardly anything coming easy, most of his analytics suffer, but I find it pretty impressive that the Commodore just missed sporting one of the ten best First Down+TD Rates amongst SEC receivers considering his playing environment.