Morty’s Mind Blowers: 2020 SEC StatCat Edition 

Followers of my work know I can be pretty straightforward and direct with my writing style. Witty quips and pop culture references tend to lose ground to number and stat nuggets. But after regurgitating over 78,000 words deep diving through each SEC program’s play calls from the previous season over the last month, I wanted to tackle a more entertaining prompt. 

Over the pandemic, like most good-hearted Americans, I binged some shows I had been putting off. I finally got around to seeing gems like Community, Schitt’s Creek, Succession, and Modern Family in their entirety. But one Cartoon Network cult classic from its Adult Swim lineup caught my attention over the winter. Rick and Morty — a parody of the dynamic between Emmitt “Doc” Brown and Marty McFly from the Back to the Future trilogy full of dick jokes, nihilistic quotes, and multiverse meta humor -- had an interesting anthology episode that used the premise of erasing and recapturing memories. 

The gist of the story involves sidekick Morty being traumatized and wanting to rid his mind of that experience. Rick obliges. But to Morty’s surprise, Rick has wiped his memory thousands and thousands of times before. But instead of them being erased forever, the mad scientist kept these “mind blowers” coded with three separate colors and stored in vials. Blue vials are instances where Morty either did something completely embarrassing or experienced immense distress. Purple vials are full of occasions where Morty’s family cause him harm. Red vials, however, are specifically for Rick’s f*** ups. These memories were as benign as Rick misusing a cliche (like “We should never take things for granite”) or as extreme as him indifferently watching Morty suffer. 

Though the episode gets pretty zany once Morty realizes what Rick has been doing — both preventing him from learning from past mistakes and negating any chance to feel superior to his genius grandpa — I felt every SEC offense could use their own “mind blowers”. For a more dated reference, I guess you can think of this akin to that Men in Black memory eraser thingy that looks like a futuristic dildo. No matter how you picture this premise, there are just some elements conference offenses need to purge from their minds completely either for better or for worse. Blue vials are things regarding a team’s overall scheme, red vials are aspects involving the run game, and purple vials concern the pass game. 

Vanderbilt

# Stop ignoring Play Action

Vanderbilt’s new coaching staff will likely be looking for any edge it can find in order to help the Commodores’ chances on the gridiron. Though soon-to-be sophomore QB Ken Seals had a mostly woeful SEC debut, a few tactics helped buoy his performance. Vandy turned to the ground in the 1st quarter last year at the 2nd-highest rate in the conference. Meaning, only Kentucky was more run-heavy to start ballgames. Obviously, opponents knew this, puffed out their chests, stuffed the run, and pushed around Vandy’s humble passing game once the ‘Dores fell behind the chains. Despite that tendency to lean on that facet, Vanderbilt hardly used play action. Seals’ 17.6% such rate was a bottom5 figure in the SEC. Off play action, the former freshman’s Comp% cracked the conference’s top5 and his Success Rate finished on the good side of 50%. For someone who finished in the SEC’s bottom6 in Depth Adjusted Accuracy, Uncatchable Pass Rate, First Down+TD Rate, and Interceptable Pass Rate, Seals needs all the help he can get. From one Clark to another, dismiss the belief in “establishing it” in order for this tactic to be fruitful. 

# Stop leaning on the run on early downs

Vanderbilt’s previous modus operandi behind its defensive-minded head coach was to make games small and find ways to win in the margins. That meant featuring a lot of runs to start ball games and hoping the ‘Dores could orchestrate long, sustained drives regularly. Despite averaging the most plays/drive in the SEC this past season, Vandy finished dead last in points/drive, TD Rate, and Early Down Conversion Rate. Of course, ‘Dores found great difficulty winning with those returns. I mean, it’s pretty hard for an offense to keep things manageable  when the squad dons a paltry 3.74 Y/C and 33.6% Success Rate on first and second down rush attempts. The latter was even worse when examining such carries before halftime. Like a good deal of Vandy’s metrics, those clips represented the conference’s floor. In comparison, passing delivered marks of 6.94 Y/P and a 43.2% Success Rate, which are unquestionably better side-by-side and in the SEC rankings. Though conventional wisdom says you’re protecting a young QB from the elements by having him operate behind the run game, that philosophy only works with elite rushing attacks that can counterbalance the expected returns. More often than not, that passer will log plenty of reps behind the chains following that philosophy, which typically ups the degree of difficulty. Vandy needs to make things easier for Seals while eliminating a tactic that forced the ‘Dores to predominately play catchup the last two seasons. 

# Forget about the slow starts through the air; passing is your best hope

Vanderbilt’s best approach for winning in this conference will be throwing the ball. Though I know coaches can hate the futility of banking on a young passer to be the driver for an offense, there’s no chance in hell the ‘Dores can compete in the SEC behind a “four yards a cloud of dust” mentality in the short term. After all, that plan kinda went up in flames based on the last couple of seasons. Vandy needs to come out slinging in 2021 and not get too bogged down with how slow its pass game started ball games this past year. The ‘Dores’ first half Passing Success Rate was over 11 percentage points better than their Rushing clip despite finishing under 39%. Plus, Vandy’s such Explosive Pass Rate trumped its such Explosive Run Rate. Passing was both more consistent and potent. The returns might have been forgettable. But compared to the other facet, dropping back to start games remains to be Vandy’s best course of action.

South Carolina

# Forget about the I-Formation

Though disciples of the Shanahan coaching tree are trying to bring back its importance, the old school I-Formation is being faded across college football as teams yearn for more spread principles. But when others zigged, South Carolina and Mike Bobo zagged in 2020. Not only did the Gamecocks feature this set on over 8% of their play calls, it was a consistent source of chunk gains fueled by concept’s like OZ Blast, Lead Toss, and Iso. While totaling over 12% of SCar’s offense, I-Formation runs pooled together for a 66% Success Rate and 8.83 Y/C. Overall, this rush offense posted clips of 42.3% and 5.33, respectively. Though Shane Beamer can draw certain connotations thanks to his dad, spending the last couple of year’s under Lincoln Riley should hint the I-Formation won’t be a part of South Carolina’s plan’s moving forward. Likewise, new Offensive Coordinator Marcus Satterfield also comes from that mold and has been helping Matt Rhule’s offensive efforts the last three years at Baylor and Carolina (NFL). Even though it begat the best returns for the Gamecocks’ ground game, I’d imagine the I-Formation will be ignored by the new offensive braintrust.  

# Stop the first down rushing volatility

South Carolina went from being one of the four most pass happy SEC offenses to one of the most ground-oriented in the span of one year. Naturally, this translated to running more to start a set of downs. Considering how ineffective the Gamecocks were taking to the skies the previous fall, there was some merit to the change of course with a new play caller in town. Though on the surface would it appear that tweak was nothing but good per SCar’s SEC-high 6.67 Y/C in those spots, no conference offense was as boom or bust. The Cocks rocked the conference’s 2nd-best percentage of runs that topped 15 yards but also sported the 2nd-worst Negative Run Rate. In the end, its first down Rushing Success Rate finished in the SEC’s bottom5. When looking at all early down runs, that polarization was further accentuated to the tune of respective clips of 7.69% and 13.9%, which represented both of the conference’s extremes. No one will turn away those splash carries, but the fact SCar was almost twice as likely to suffer a TFL should be very alarming. If the run game is to be the main facet for this offense under Beamer, these negative tries must be curbed especially when opening up a fresh set of downs. 

# Erase the aerial futility

At best, Colin Hill was an average plug-and-play college QB. With so-so talent and ability, he overly had to bank on scheme, timing, and moxy to carry his results. But the grad-transfer hardly functioned from the pristine pockets needed for him to be his best self as red plays carried over into South Carolina’s passing game. The Gamecocks surrendered the SEC’s 2nd-worst Pressure and Sack Rates, which resulted in the conference’s highest Negative Play Rate and 3rd-lowest Success Rate through the air. Though undoubtedly kicked up a notch by Hill’s mediocrity, consistently escaping from that level of duress is a hard ask even for the most-gifted QBs. The new staff should be wary of these missteps with presumed starter Luke Doty still being relatively green, and it would be wise to look into methods to speed up his processing or provide him with more protection. But for Doty, he needs to block out those bad memories completely unless he wants to catch whatever Bo Nix came down with in 2020. 

Tennessee 

# Forget the bland modus operandi

No SEC offense was as boring as Tennessee’s in 2020. Even the year before, Jim Chaney’s approach hardly excited or popped. Sure, the Vols would hit on a deep pass every once in a while. But that scheme lacked pizzazz, creativity, and more importantly, sturdy results. The pace was slow, the tactics were deliberate, and the passing game was marginalized. Though at-the-snap motion usage increased towards the end of the year, the Vols still finished below the SEC average in that respect while donning the lowest pre-snap Motion Rate. That approach can work when one has a superior edge in talent, but “linin’ em up and goin’” as is barely pans out for underdogs in the SEC. Josh Heuple is supposed to maintain the verticality through the air, but he’s also expected to increase Tennessee’s tempo. With this presumed offensive revitalization, more movement would certainly help this unit become less lumbering and more unpredictable. But if it were me, I wouldn’t stop at only incorporating more no huddle. Tennessee should explore using more eye candy to facilitate its downfield throws. Jet and Orbit Motion tends to tip backends into single-high looks, which bestows more one-on-one chances deep. Though the Crimson Tide had a clear talent edge, Alabama’s deep passing game blossomed using such tactics this past fall if you needed a recent case study.

# Fade early runs

While it remains to be seen which facet will carry the standard for Heuple’s first offense on Rocky Top, Tennessee has to run the ball better to start ball games. Chaney overly believed in “establishing it” to the tune of the SEC’s 4th-highest early down Run Rate in first halves. But despite optimism in that doctrine, the Vols’ rushing attack flunked in these spots. Tennessee finished inside the conference’s bottom3 in Y/C, Success Rate, and Explosive Run Rate on early down carries before halftime. In terms of chunk runs, no one put up a lower percentage of runs that gained at least 15 yards. Of course, that level of uselessness put more pressure on Tennessee’s already highly-criticized pass attack. Whether it’s the focal point or a secondary approach, this run game has to exhibit more value especially early on before this offense falls in a hole and becomes more predictable. Tennessee’s ground game has been predominately lackluster the last three years. So, the odds are it will at least remain as such in the short term. Knowing that, the “Baylor Spread” would be wise to lean on its pass game from the get-go. 

# Forget about setting the pass game up for 3rd Downs

No smart offensive coach should ever plan on 3rd downs. They are one-off situations full of unique factors that make sustainability nearly impossible. Though these snaps can often turn ball games, an offense should avoid these spots if it can help it. Unless it is 3rd and 2/1, the offense has a better chance of success in virtually every other ordinary early down circumstance. Either due to lack of trust or archaic play calling, Tennessee’s pass game (which tended to get vertical) was asked to bailout this muted offense frequently behind the chains and on thirds. Despite the natural volatility, the Vols managed to squeak by thanks to its 3rd down passing prowess in 2019. Taking care of business of the money down helped Tennessee close like a freight train and win six straight games. But this hubris doomed the Vols in 2020. When Big Orange attempted to run back that style of play, things quickly went off the rails. Predictable tactics and play calls commonly put Tennessee’s passers under the gun. Despite Jarrett Guarantano and Harrison Bailey each sporting average times to throw on the quicker side of the SEC average, the Vols surrendered the SEC’s 5th-highest Pressure Rate that led to the conference’s worst Sack Rate on thirds. The narrow approach and poor protection begat a 25.3% Success Rate, which comfortably fell into the bottom2. Forget about setting yourself up for 3rd downs, Tennessee, because that’s only setting yourself up for failure in the long term. 

Mississippi State

# Erase vertical pass attempts

The Air Raid can put up plenty of points and snatch a bunch of yards, but the scheme isn’t always a well for big gainers. Bulldog faithfuls found this out the hard way as 2020 progressed. Despite logging 15 explosive passes in Week 1 versus LSU, Mississippi State only totaled 19 the rest of the season. Sure, Mike Leach still featured All Verts (“99”) at a considerable clip; but it became apparent this offense was very limited when it came to stretching the field. Despite helping the Air Raid find down-to-down consistency, freshman Will Rogers arguably has the weakest arm among the SEC starters. When targeting vertical routes like goes, seams, or fades, no conference passer put up a worst Success Rate than his 19.2% clip. On all targets that traveled over 20 yards downfield, Rogers finished inside the SEC’s bottom3 in Accuracy% and Completion%. Once the QB switch was made, this offense hardly ever logged an explosive gain unless its pass catchers gobbled up YAC. Unfortunately, that might have to be more of the case in the short term. Not only can the Air Raid can get by operating more “West Coast”, it’s inherently designed to play to its strengths. Since throwing deep is far from Rogers’ best characteristics, this offense should hone in on more short and midrange precision to maximize its output. 

# Erase 3rd Down ground failures

Since Leach was one of the philosophical founding fathers that actively sought to flip the script and have the pass set up the run, it should be no surprise the Air Raid didn’t ask much from its rushing attack. As the counterpunch to his pugnacious passing scheme, Leach only turned to the ground when defenses trotted out three-safety looks, were undermanned in the box, or if MSU faced short porch situations. The Sun Tzu disciple was not above striking fronts with an Inside Zone, but this offense simply failed to take care of business with its 3rd Down carries. Already a team that struggled to provide cushion even with advantageous box counts, the Bulldogs rocked the SEC’s 3rd-lowest rush yards before contact average (1.41) and the worst Success Rate (41.2%) in these spots when either up or down 18 points. The latter was 16 percentage points below the conference average. Though Miss State was better on snaps with less than four yards to gain, they still finished with a bottom3 YBC and bottom5 Success Rate. The passing game will continue to set up the run for winnable situations, but the returns must get better for the sake of this scheme’s sustainability in the SEC. 

# Literally have a short memory RE: Turnover-worthy throws

Perhaps you’ve heard of the idiom “when it rains, it pours.” Once something bad happens, the door opens up for other stuff to pile on and lead to even worse misfortunes. Speaking of old cliches, there’s an old one involving quarterbacks having a short memory regarding interceptions. Most coaches will tell their passer to “move on and forget about it” as they don’t want one mistake to turn into four. For Mississippi State’s sake, I hope Leach and Rogers have already had that discussion of preventing last year’s boo boos from manifesting in 2021. By a rate basis, both KJ Costello and Rogers rocked bottom4 Interceptable Pass Rates within the SEC. The former’s 13.8% clip represented the conference’s floor. By volume, the duo combined for an unnerving 60 turnover-worthy passes by my charting. There’s a reason Miss State finished with six more TOs than the next conference offense in line; the Bulldogs consistently put the ball into harm’s way. Sporting opponents extra possessions while rocking a league-worst 3.15% TO Rate must be curbed immediately in order for Miss State to find wins. For Rogers, that starts by putting those miscues behind him, focusing on righting his recognition/decision-making, and looking blissfully ahead to brighter days. 

Arkansas

# Screens. Stop it. 

Look, I get it. Arkansas had a porous offensive line that gave up the SEC’s 2nd-highest Pressure Rate and had a hand in conceding the conference’s worst Havoc Rate. In return, the Hogs ran a lot of quick stuff and couldn’t have too many deep drop patterns for fear of logging a sack or busting a design. In theory, screens are somewhat effective plays against pass rushes. When the defense over-pursues lusting after the quarterback, blockers leak in front of a playmaker, and he follows them to green grass. Screens were Arkansas’ 4th-most featured look through the air in meaningful minutes, but this flatly was a terrible screen team. No subconcept finished with a Success Rate over 30%; overall screens collectively sported a 22.2% clip (the SEC average was 34.3%). The plurality of these plays were logged on first downs. It’s one thing for this group to come up short on the money down; but it’s another to actively feature it to start a set of downs despite its sour metrics. Arkansas’ personnel will be different, but there’s hardly any evidence to suggest screens should be a part of Kendal Briles encore act.  

# Erase the soft mindset

By my metrics, Arkansas ground game has been soft the last fews of seasons. And in 2020, the Razorbacks were particularly dismissible. The Hogs ranked dead last in average rush yards after contact with a 2.13 clip. Their two lead ball carriers, Rakeem Boyd and Trelon Smith, both finished in SEC’s bottom7 in Broken Tackle Rate. No doubt some dudes are just naturally elusive, slippery, or physical. Still, tackle breaking can sometimes be fueled by effort. Frankly, this rushing attack could use some more sharp edges and show a little more fight. Sure, that can be literally be beefed up with some offseason training; but gridiron might is often fueled by gumption and who wants it more. I’m not saying pull a total 180 in a year — just don’t finish last in the conference. Boyd is gone, but the returners need to erase their slack mindset when it comes to seizing real-estate. Their jobs will undeniably be facilitated if Arkansas’ line makes a leap creating cushion upfront. I don’t think that’s too much to ask from a head coach who’s previous job was working with hogmollies. 

# Purge the prevalence for backyard ball

By the time Feleipe Franks was taking snaps in Fayetteville, he was a well-seasoned SEC vet. Though frantic and panicky at Florida, he showed poise and moxy directing Arkansas offense in 2020. Plus, Franks was an underrated athlete that helped negate biffs from his offensive line. Again, this offense suffered from the SEC’s 2nd-highest Pressure Rate and over a fifth of their pass plays were “broken”. In that respect, the Razorbacks’ finished last in the SEC for the second-straight year when including all snaps. With plenty of busted pockets, only Ole Miss had a higher percentage of plays result in a scramble than the Hogs. Despite that, Franks managed to turn almost a quarter of those chances into success and a tenth into a fresh set of downs. KJ Jefferson has looked capable playing backyard ball in his limited stints, but it will be a hard ask for him to operate as an eraser from the get go. Though it certainly will be an added bonus if Jefferson can bailout his blockers consistently, this offense can’t bank on that considering no one topped its 5.14% Sack Rate within the conference. 

Kentucky

# Forget about being so one-dimensional  

The Cats’ pass game has precipitously soured over the last half decade and has finished among the worst in the Power5 the last three years. Coincidentally, Kentucky has gone all in on the run like no other SEC offense the last two seasons. This past season, UK ran the ball on 70% of its first quarter first downs and 60% of its plays overall. As this offense gravitated towards one extreme, it became more narrow and predictable. Any semblance of run:pass balance was totally thrown out the window. That needs to change. Mark Stoops has always preached the need for his offense to play physically, but he’ll be the first one to tell you the importance of being able to keep opponents off-keel. The Big Blue Wall can still be the driver for this offense, but the new offensive braintrust was hired to develop a passing game. Yea Jared Goff left a lot to be desired, but the scheme new Offensive Coordinator Liam Coen was a part of managed to puppeteer the so-so quarterback to a Super Bowl behind a mentality that married the run and the pass. Kentucky has Atlanta aspirations. Though those odds are long, it has a better chance getting there if its offense isn’t so one-dimensional. 

# Forget about the inconsistencies from condensed sets

Along with the Outside Zone being its core concept, Sean McVay’s offense has commonly featured tight and bunch formations from 11 personnel. With more speed on the field in tight quarters, it presents quick flank opportunities on the edge or seal opportunities towards the inside if the defense widens. Last year, the Cats otherwise formidable run game finished in the SEC’s bottom5 in Rushing Success Rate with the 2nd-worst Y/C from tight and bunch formations. The traffic hindered their efforts creating cushion as the team’s 1.75 rush yards before contact average fell below the SEC’s mean. About 11% of UK’s offense was deployed from these sets, which was the 5th-lowest in the conference. The poor output either could have been due lack of refinement or because of an inability to play in a phone booth. Though it remains to be seen just how many wrinkles from the Rams’ scheme Coen will bring to the Bluegrass, he’ll have to think long and hard if UK is suited for condensed sets.

# Reboot the passing game

While it’s easy to see where Eddie Gran and Darin Hinshaw came from, the results spoke for themselves, and the time was right for new voices to lead this offense. From where I sit, UK’s play calling through the air was wishy-washy, matchup-reliant, and unstable in 2020. To use a Coach Cal colloquialism, this passing game could use a good reboot. Due to tenancy, lack of spryness, and iffy aerial coordination, a myriad of issues plagued Kentucky’s passing game in recent years. With constant upheaval on the script, the Cats never managed to build a comfortable foundation. Considering the Cats aren’t bringing back a passer that completed at least half of his attempts and the team’s Success Rate was the SEC’s worst clip by seven percentage points, dwelling on the past won’t do this offense any favors moving forward. Plus, I already touched on how Big Blue’s bottom line has overly stunk for the last three seasons. Gall can be goaded by coaching and obtained confidence, but it appears the Cats injected some potency with some key transfers and has a planned system in place to provide guidelines. At the very least, that should help get the ball rolling. UK’s passing game needs a fresh start; a total blank slate. 

Ole Miss

# Stop ignoring empty sets

Lane Kiffen and Jeff Lebby instantly provided a spark for Ole Miss’s offense. Seamlessly transitioning the Rebels from a spread-run scheme under Rich Rodriguez to their balanced assault, Hotty Toddy finished top3 in handfuls of offensive metrics within the conference. Though the new offensive braintrust tended to lean into things this offense did well, it overly ignored operating from empty sets. In the span of a year, the Rebels went from featuring those formations at the 2nd-highest to the 2nd-lowest rate within the conference. Despite these sets seeing a double-digit drop in usage year-over-year, no SEC offense bested Ole Miss’s 80% Success Rate from empty. Matt Corral’s individual passing clip reached 90.9% while boasting a perfect Completion%. Both in 2019 and 2020, Corral experienced an uptick in Success Rate, Explosive Pass Rate, and Depth Adjusted Accuracy from these sets compared to his overall figures. I’m not saying the Rebels should go five-wide on every snap. But, it’s apparent their passer is quite comfortable in those settings. Ole Miss needs to stop ignoring the numbers and utilize empty more this upcoming fall. 

# Purge the first down miscues

In terms of Success Rate and Explosive Run Rate, the Rebels were a middle-of-the-road first down rushing team relative to the rest of the conference in 2020. But for an offense that had one of the most balanced run:pass ratios in those spots, Ole Miss logged way too many bad value snaps on the ground. This rush game constantly faced obstacles to start a set of downs ala a bottom4 rush yards before contact average and the SEC’s 2nd-highest Run Havoc Rate. Furthermore, no one exited the year with a less preferable Broken Play Rate on rush attempts. Their 5.18% clip more than doubled the conference average. Though an offense that was seemingly unaffected by negative plays, Ole Miss shouldn’t accept these results. In case you were unaware, it’s generally a smart tactic to avoid moving backwards on offense. The Rebels need to purge themselves of these first down miscues, unless they want the lustrous honor of donning a bottom3 Y/C on first downs again in 2021. 

# Forget about the self destructive games

Matt Corral emerged as one of the top passers within the SEC last fall. Truth be told, the California will enter this season as the conference’s QB1 for many. But the dissenters will be quick to point out his two blowup games in which he totaled 11 interceptions. An insane 20% of his pass attempts against Arkansas and LSU had turnover-worthy potential, and Corral’s Passing Success Rate dwindled to 38.5%. Nearly a quarter of his attempts were deemed uncatchable. All but three of these picks came when he was unpressured. In the remaining eight games, his Success Rate and Interceptable Pass Rate finished at 61.1% and 2.95%, respectively. While the latter would have led the conference, only Mac Jones would have topped Corral’s would-be Success Rate. Matty Nice did a good job avoiding mistakes in 2020, but there’s no denying he threw up a couple of clunkers. And for whatever reason, he had a hard time shaking off the rust in those games. Corral has it in him to put up a memorable autumn in Oxford. That said, he’s human; so he’s bound to make some mistakes. This staff has to work on preventing one ill-fated throw from turning into a half dozen. Captain Obvious wanted to chime in and say sporting your opponent that many extra possessions rarely yields favorable results. 

LSU

# Forget about Linehan’s influence and go all-in on replicating 2019

Jake Peetz and DJ Mangus were brought back to the bayou to run back 2019’s scheme in an effort to erase last season’s regression. Offensive Coordinator Steve Ensminger and his right hand man Scott Linehan tried to replicate the modus operandi that helped the Tigers boast video game-like offensive numbers, but opt-outs, key injuries, and a slight change of course in tactics saw LSU go from elite to average. The offensive braintrust was reluctant to feature Y-Shallow underneath its “Doubles” philosophy, put its tried and true Levels pattern from trips on the backburner, diversified the run calls, and passed much less to start a set of downs in meaningful minutes. LSU’s Pass Rate on first downs when the Tigers were either up or down 17 points dropped from 67% to 54% year-over-year. Obviously since freshman passers were thrown into the fire, it makes sense why the offense had to tweak things as the season progressed. Still, the pass game must re-establish itself as the driving force for this offense. That’s the competitive advantage of “flipping the script”. Sure, Joe Burrow and dem boys can’t be cloned, and I’m not expecting this offense to immediately become tops within the SEC. But minimizing a run game that finished dead last in Y/C and rush yards before contact should be a promising start to recapturing the magic from yesteryear. 

# Stop being soft on the ground

While the passing game should be the engine for LSU’s offense, the Bayou Bengals ground assault has to at least provide value in 2021. For me, that starts with this group regaining some lost confidence. For others, thats doing a complete about-face regarding this run game’s deplorable bottomline. Blessed with undermanned box counts and short porch situations, the Tigers absolutely took care of business on this front in 2019. LSU’s dynamic pass catchers both directly and indirectly allowed run lanes to manifest between the bookends more regularly as defenses constantly diverted attention their way. Knowing they were teed up for success, running backs and the O-Line demonstrated noticeable physicality, which accentuated their advantages. Since this run game overly featured two run looks, this unit played with an edge as if its back was against the wall. Again, this was only a mentality as this ground game was constantly set up to win situationally. But that zeal dissipated as this group became less sure of one another’s abilities this past season. LSU’s rush yards before contact average dropped 1.3 yards going from the SEC’s 4th-best to its worst, their rush yards after contact clip finished in the conference’s bottom4, and the team’s cumulative Broken Tackle Rate soured by ten percentage points. Perhaps the humbling experience from this past season helps this run game see itself as a scrappy underdog once more. Not that I think this bunch rested on their laurels last year (after all, most had no key contribution). But the soft running must stop, and that starts with cultivating a desire to fight for everything that they are given on the ground.

# Purge the pathetic 3rd down passing

“Flipping the script” to allow the pass to set up the run is a direct strategy to prevent an offense from landing on too many third downs. While that strategy minimizes that down’s importance, there’s no denying even the best offenses have to fight those battles occasionally. LSU’s pass game was decimated in these spots last year. Tiger passers pooled together for a lousy 4.61 Y/A, 51% Completion% and 25% Success Rate. About 20% of their dropbacks suffered from either sack or a drop, and a sixth of their attempts were deemed uncatchable. Including sacks and scrambles, no SEC offense put up a worse Success Rate than LSU’s 21.1% clip in meaningful minutes. While earning the conference’s silver medal, this offense’s figure from 2019 more than doubled that dismissible number. With more passing setting up more short yardage situations that season, LSU’s 6.65 average yards to gain was the lowest in the SEC. This year, it rose by over a yard to 7.63 and into the conference’s top5.  Needless the say, 3rd Downs are easier to convert when there’s less real estate to acquire. While an improved effort on early downs should help these returns, execution on thirds must improve. All five of the pass concepts that received at least seven 3rd down targets in 2019 rocked at least a 55.6% Success Rate. None that logged more four attempts in 2020 finished with a clip north of 33.3%.  

Missouri

# Stop running so much on first down

In terms of output, there are two schools of thought: volume and efficiency. While analytics and new mentalities are putting more emphasis on the latter, the monoliths baptized in the Church of Our Lady of Four Yards Through a Cloud of Dust still clamor for archaic metrics like time of possession, play differential, and total yards. Eli Drinkwitz has a foot in both worlds. Behind its core Off-Tackle, the Tigers main offensive approach aimd to stress the edge, widen the defense, and set up their favorite inside runs. To function that way, you need to dedicate a good amount of your first down offense to those concepts. Mizzou ran the ball on 56% of its first downs in meaningful minutes but posted subpar returns, which meant the Tigers had to aggressively lean into the volume game. While producing a bottom5 Y/C, Mizzou finished with the 3rd-worst Negative Rate and 2nd-worst Success Rate. For what it’s worth, that’s not too far removed from the Tigers 2019 first down numbers per its 14th-ranked Success Rate and 13th-ranked Broken Run Rate. Looking at snaps when the Tigers were either up or down 18 points, their pass game was noticeably more preferable in comparison. Mizzou averaged 2.6 more yards/play and saw its Success Rate tick up 7.4 points when it passed to start a set of downs. I’m not saying Drinkwitz should completely redo his philosophy, but maybe help your offense out with some more first down passes moving forward. 

# Stop the failures in short yardage

Regardless of what your offense approach is, no coach or scheme should accept futility in short yardage situations. While passing miscues are one thing, it’s another to be consistently emasculated when a ground game fails to take care of business in situations with three yards or less to gain. Including all snaps, no SEC offense put up a worse Y/C or Rushing Success Rate in those spots than the Tigers. Plus, Mizzou logged the conference’s 2nd-highest Negative Run Rate. Even though the Tigers used at-the-snap motion on over a quarter of these carries to help widen box defenders or divert attention from the backfield, defenses were hardly fooled. Their figures were a little bit better in meaningful minutes, but this run game needs to turn the page and forget about its short porch woes from 2020. Instances of needing three yards or less to move the chains won’t go away. This offense must win more at the line of scrimmage and take “gimmes” order to sustain drives if the Tigers are to claw up the standings in the SEC east. 

# Purge the poor Red Zone passing

Though an offense can get by with so-so showings in the red zone, most would prefer to capitalize in the area of the field were points are at the utmost premium. Connor Bazelak had a pretty good 2020 all else considered, but he was not a particularly good red zone passer. The basic stats could have fooled you as he tossed 3 TDs against 0 interceptions inside his opponent’s 20-yard line. But when you dig deeper, he had the lowest TD Rate and the 2nd-lowest Success Rate in the SEC. Plus, this was more than just bad luck, a poor operation, or shortcomings by his teammates. Bazelak’s 26.9% Depth Adjusted Accuracy% was the conference’s 3rd-worst among passers with at least double-digit red zone attempts. But don’t fret too much, Mizzou fans. One particular passer was unequivocally the SEC’s worst QB in this area of the field in 2018. But the following year, he became of the of the nation’s most-efficient signal callers. By the time his college career concluded, that player took home a lot of hardware including the Heisman trophy and a National Championship. I’m not crazy enough to suggest Bazelak will undertake Joe Burrow’s career arc, but I’m smart enough to not count this talented kid out in coming years when the Tigers reach inside their opponent’s 20. 

Auburn

# Forget the Verts

Sure, Chad Morris was hired to help take Auburn’s offense in a new direction and provide it with some modern wrinkles. But, his main source of employment was to maximize Bo Nix. Despite the optimism and Morris’ “perception” as a quarterback whisperer, the Tigers’ passing attack was overly toothless particularly in the dropback game. A lot of Nix's game worsened last year. But Bryan Harsin and Mike Bobo need to go ahead and purge any desire to feature vertical routes in its pass patterns for next season. Despite Nix undoubtedly having a strong arm suited for that style of play. his ball placement leaves plenty to be desired thanks to his iffy mechanics. By volume, Auburn targeted the 2nd-most vertical routes (go, seam, fade) within the conference but only two true freshman posted worse a Completion% than Nix’s 23.1% clip. His 17.9% such Accuracy% only bested Tennessee’s Harrison Bailey and Georgia’s Stetson Bennett. But it wasn’t just that Nix consistently missed on these routes, he didn’t even give his guys a chance at them on over half of his tries. Almost 54% of his verticals were deemed uncatchable, which was the 2nd-worst clip in the SEC. And when focusing on attempts that traveled over 20 yards in downfield, Nix’s returns sour further. Not that South Carolina had a passer with a big arm, but the Gamecocks only targeted 23 vertical routes last year. Based on Bobo’s M.O., the departures at wide receiver, and Nix’s wayward precision, Auburn needs to forget about utilizing these routes next season.  

# Purge the second half failures

Though his work with the pass game gets an F based on the results, Morris at least helped progress Auburn’s rushing numbers. About 30% of War Eagle’s run and RPO attempts experienced a form of at-the-snap motion, which was the most in the SEC by about ten percentage points. With extra dynamism to divert attention away from the backfield, the Tigers managed to find more regular cushion and rip off more splash carries. On snaps when they were either up or down 18 points, only Georgia and Texas A&M averaged more rush yards before contact. Auburn was one of two SECers in these spots to see at least a fifth of their runs go for at least ten yards. Like year’s of old, running the ball was totally this offense’s strength. But when the Tigers looked to lean on this facet after halftime, the returns took a noticeable downturn. With opponents being more-than-aware of the Tigers’ intentions, they went all-out to stop the run and forced Nix to beat them. Auburn’s rush yards before contact average and Y/C both dropped into the SEC’s bottom4. With less room to run, their ball carriers only mustered an average YAC clip. With less tackle breaking in closed quarters, this run game simply experienced less success and potency. Along with those other metrics dipping, the Tigers’ Success and Explosive Run Rate fell into the conference’s bottom3. This should be a cautionary tale for this offense moving forward. There’s no doubt plenty of people on the Plains would prefer to play behind the run and marginalize Nix. That’s fine, but this ground game can’t be so easily negated especially in the second half.

# Forget about last season entirely

From where I sit, Bo Nix is as close to broken as a passer can get. Despite being the son of a coach and having some pretty bright offensive minds in his corner, Nix exhibits terrible mechanics, frantic pocket management, and so-so accuracy. Either by fault of his own or due to protection crumbling, almost 21% of Auburn’s pass plays were categorized as “broken” in my charting, which is a pretty fitting stat for this discussion. Only Arkansas was worse in that regard within the SEC. I know some of these errs weren’t on him, but the Plainsman failed to display an even-keeled manner when under the gun or when kept clean. At year’s end, Nix finished in the bottom3 in Accuracy%, Adjusted Completion%, First Down+TD Rate, and Uncatchable Pass Rate among the 18 conference passers with at least 75 attempts. When weight was applied to his distance of throws, no one put up a worse Depth Adjusted Accuracy% than his 36.1% clip. Yikes. Nix’s 2020 performance needs to be shredded and burned. Though the junior-to-be will certainly review his past mistakes, he should avoid dwelling on them at all cost. Nix needs to be rebuilt and find a new source of confidence in his abilities. For analysts and fans, those miscues will remain fresh, but Nix needs to erase last year from his memory to move forward with a new offensive braintrust. 

Georgia

# Be Wary of increased play action usage

Before I start poo-pooing the great tactic of play action, I need to clarify myself. Yes, I am a believer play fakes even when an offense fails to “establish it”. Though a successful run game helps, it’s not necessary. Say what you want about linebacker discipline, but that position group is always out to make a tackle regardless of the score. Does it work every time? Of course not; nothing does in this great game. But, play action as a post-snap mechanism helps goad more aggressiveness out of passers, maneuver defenders out of position, and orchestrate longer completions downfield. JT Daniels used an average amount of this tactic relative to other conference passers. One out of every five on average threatened the run. He experienced slight gains in things like Y/A, Explosive Pass Rate, and Adjusted Completion%, which all finished inside the SEC’s top3. Almost a quarter of his passes went for at least 20 yards. You might be asking yourself, “Why TF should the Dawwhhgs not use play action if you say Daniels is so good using it?”. Here’s why: his down-to-down Success Rate, First Down+TD Rate, and Uncatchable Pass Rate all worsened. And the biggest dagger of them all, Daniels’ Depth Adjusted Accuracy% finished 17th out of the 18 qualifying conference QBs. Duck Season Between the Hedges might not be so fruitful this fall. Daniels’ results are hard to knock, but don’t dismiss his dismal precision off play action. 

# Stop accepting mediocrity on first down runs

When talking about the four best teams in the conference, sometimes it can be difficult finding flaws in the numbers. Georgia’s run game rebounded fantastically after stagnating in the middle of 2019. I mean, this is a unit that boasted a top2 rush yards before contact and Success Rate in meaningful minutes. But if we’re being honest, Georgia’s run game was incredibly ho-hum to start a set of downs. Yes, their Success Rate was over 50%; but the Bulldogs finished in the middle of the pack in Y/A, Explosive Run Rate, and rush yards before contact with a bottom5 Run Havoc Rate. Sure, half the time Georgia got its five yards or whatever. But about a fifth of their such carries went backwards or logged a paltry gain. Though some offenses were unaffected when playing behind the chains, Georgia finished with a bottom5 Success Rate with the 2nd-worst Y/A on snaps with 2nd & 9+. When this offense needed ten or more yards to gain on seconds, those clips fell into the conference’s bottom3 and to the last, respectively. Teams know Georgia is run first — at least for the short term. But, these dudes were recruited to run over any and everybody they play no matter the circumstance. The Dawgs must carve out better cushion and be more potent on first downs if they want to reclaim their dominance over the division. 

# Forget about banking on money downs

You could say this is a pseudo case of Deju Vu. Two years ago, Tennessee’s offense was middling and muted. Behind a run game that left some to be desired, the Vols soon marginalized their passing game to late downs and shots. Despite the high volatility of playing Russian roulette with bombs on the do or die down, Big Orange rode that methodology to six straight wins to close the year. Only Alabama topped their Offensive and Defensive Explosive Pass Rates. Entering the year, Jarrett Guarantano was the best returning deep ball and 3rd Down passer in numerous metrics in the conference. The Vols tried to run that methodology back, and…yeah, it didn’t go so well. Daniels certainly caught folks’ attention by hitting on his homerun balls like Guarantano. But, where he sizzled on the stat sheet was TCOB on 3rd downs. In SEC play, Daniels rocked a 72.2% Success Rate, 14.6 Y/A, and 93.8% Adjusted Completion% — all conference highs. But like the Vols, being overconfident in this context can be costly. In the bowl game, Daniels went 0/9 on his conversions with a blah 44.4% Completion% against Cincinnati, which almost damn-near upended Georgia. After that showing, he’s now barely clinging onto his spot in the top5 with a 48.2% Success Rate. The good news for Dawg Nation is that UGA logged the SEC’s 2nd-best Early Down Conversion Rate and 3rd-best First Down Rate after Daniels entered the lineup, which translates to not playing that many 3rd Downs relative to everyone else. That needs to overly continue, and the Dawgs need to avoid banking on the money down despite Daniels early returns in those spots.

Texas A&M

# Stop being so rigid

Though Jimbo has done a solid job building an offense in College Station, I can’t help but gripe about how he seemingly goes out of his way to make things difficult on his passers. He’s seldom features RPO tags, screens, or play action. The pass patterns are meticulous, and the operation is highly regimented. They’re often short and sweet but undeniably rigid. Due to lack of team speed, deep concepts have overly been shelved, and a good deal of reps attack tight windows. Quick ins, speed outs, slants, Spot, and Levels littered Texas A&M’s passing script this past season. Patterns like Cross, Mesh, and Shallow were far less featured. To help their green quarterback, I’d like this offense to exhibit more fluidity, attempt more play action, and maybe incorporate more RPO designs. This request might fall on deaf ears. Though Jimbo’s QB school is very pro-style, the NFL is rapidly adopting college concepts. It might be time to lean into those tactics to both aid Haynes King and prepare him for what he might run at the next level.  After all, it’s not like the former four star is cement footed or overly intent from operating as a pocket passer.

# Learn to make do without the Maroon Goons

TAMU’s ground game was one of the most dynamic in the SEC this past season. Behind the Maroon Goons upfront that paved the conference’s best rush yards before contact average, the Aggies saw a fifth of their carries gain at least ten yards. No one topped their 21.1% Explosive Run Rate. For good measure, they finished top3 in Success Rate and yards after contact. But, this run game will have to deal with four departing seniors. If recent history within this conference is any indicator, that usually signifies regression is on the horizon. Sure, the Aggies will bring back one of the best backfields in terms of breaking tackles; but go ask Florida’s ball carriers what it’s like to operate consistently little room to run. With the aforementioned mighty metrics from last season, Jimbo wanted to maximize that unit’s chances. Only Kentucky ran more on first downs in meaningful minutes. But, the personnel turnover might lead to the Aggies dropping back more. That said, these OL departures cut both ways; in both the expected output on the ground as well as Sack Rate. If you didn’t know, no one bested TAMU’s 1.05% Sack Rate within the SEC. Though it will be tough to forget about the good times, this new line can’t afford to suffer from the hubris that they are on the same level as last year’s bunch on day one. 

# Forget about being so damn methodical

Kellen Mond was a middling a deep ball passer as an Aggie. No doubt he threw some dimes, but relative to everyone else in the SEC, he hardly was a standout. Both his Accuracy% and Success Rate on throws 20 yards or more downfield finished near the conference mean for three-straight seasons. Usually if a passer is at least average at something, a staff will trust in him to try defenses that way occasionally. However, as receiver speed has dwindled the last two years, so have the number of shots. In that time, Mond has finished in the SEC’s bottom3 in Deep Pass Rate with neither clip breaking 9%. With the lack of verticality, as Aggie Land knows, TAMU has had immense difficulty cultivating explosive gains through the air as the team’s Explosive Pass Rate has sat comfortably inside the SEC’s bottom5 since 2018. It remains to be seen if Haynes King can be at least mediocre slinging it deep. But for the sake of this offense, it needs to dial up more bombs. The lack of passing pizzaz was one of the reasons the Aggies failed the Good Ole Fashioned Eye Test with the 2020 CFP Committee. I’m not saying dedicate a fifth of the passing attack towards deep patterns, but predominately nickel and diming through the air puts a cap on this offense. Like the first section where I implored Jimbo to involve more QB-friendly tactics, this request probably will be dismissed. But this is the part where I’ll remind you winning the explosive play battle is highly correlated to winning ballgames as of late; even more so than being victorious in the turnover battle. The Aggies simply need to give themselves more stabs at those plays. Honestly unless King is noodle-armed or a heat-seeking missile keen on finding defensive backs, what’s the harm of seeing a 50-75% increase in deep throws? 

Florida

# Stop being so static  

Since Florida will lose a good amount of talent and likely will be changing course in how it functions offensively, this exercise becomes a little tough as the Gators will already be looking to put last year behind them. That said, I think Dan Mullen should use this opportunity to go all-out featuring more motions in his attack. Florida has increased its pre-snap and at-the-snap motion usage each passing fall the least three years. Despite the upticks, the Gators only used an average amount of motion relative to the rest of the SEC in both categories in 2020. Though those elements aren’t as needed when you have the mismatch makers Florida possessed, look at Alabama’s assault and tell me the extra razzmatazz didn’t crank up their potency. No SEC team used more pre-snap or Orbit motion than the Tide. Obviously the team speeds helped maximize that tactic, but motion consistently helped the Tide find wins even before the ball reached the quarterback’s hands. With a more electric runner behind center and so-so ground game, utilizing extra eye candy should open copious amount of opportunities for this offense to lean into its strengths and create a canvass for some fun counterpunches. 

# Fade running back carries on early downs

Since the Gators have been unable to consistently take care of business on the ground with its backs, quarterback runs have been one of the lone bright spots in Florida’s ground game the past couple of seasons. Last year, both Trask and Jones rocked preferable Success and Explosive Run Rates compared to Pierce, Davis and Wright. Plus, the pair only finished with one negative designed run between them. Trask was usually saved for later down or short yardage situations, but Jones had a whole package dedicated to his running ability. Not to get ahead of myself, but it appears that will be the foundation of Florida’s 2021 offense. Some of the shared social media football from this spring certainly hints at that with plenty of footage of motioners operating in read options. Though those designs are nothing new in this offense, naturally having more speed in the backfield will help that approach be more dynamic. And since Mullen is a smart play caller, he’s bound to have some Tim Tebow-esque wrinkles in store. With that ever-looming, it would be wise to maximize Jones’ legs on early downs. Last year in those spots, No Florida back topped a 50% Success Rate. Yet, Jones posted a team-high 65% clip. Only x-factor Kadarious Toney put up a preferable Y/A, Explosive Run Rate, and YAC average on first or second down tries. 

# Forget about overly straight dropbacks

Dan Mullen has already addressed Florida media members on how he plans to handle the pass offense differently with Emory Jones behind center. Darth Gator was quick to point out Jones has a stronger arm than the departing Kyle Trask, but was pretty clear he doesn’t see him being as precise with his ball placement. With that, Florida probably won’t be as pass-happy or straightforward as it was this past season. In order to generate easier throws and facilitate things for the less-accurate Jones, the Gators should get back to using plenty of RPOs, screens, and play actions, which all lost share year-over-year. Along with those elements of deception, this offense needs a more effective run:pass balance. Preventing this pass game's efficiency from nosediving after 2020’s historic output will be paramount if the Swamp Dwellers want to repeat as division champs. For the past two seasons in his limited stints, Jones put up a Depth Adjusted Accuracy under 40% and an Interceptable Pass Rate near 10%. Though slinging it far might be his strong suit, those stats are undeniably red flags. Arm strength becomes a moot point when a passer can’t hit his target or constantly puts the ball into harms way. Jones is a good buy-low candidate entering the year. But, don’t kid yourself; Mullen must coax more value out of Jones' arm. For me, asking him to perform less straight dropbacks will help accomplish that feat. 

Alabama

“It’s the greater good, Morty. After all, you don’t want last year’s glory to become this season’s rat poison.” — Rick Saban

For the national champions, we’re going to pull together all three Mind Blower sections for one big zap. No college coach is better suited for putting the previous year behind him than Nick Saban. Alabama constantly loses talent and coaches each off-season, but the Tide never fall out of title discussion. Schematically and statistically, things are likely to differ from the eye-popping figure this offense put up this past season. Even disregarding the roster turnover, Bill O’Brien and Steve Sarkisian aren’t exactly cut from the same cloth. Alabama’s liberal usage of motions, play action, and diversified play shares that overly kept foes guessing (wrong) probably won’t been used at such high levels. They might, but I’m not holding my breathe or expecting the same level of creativity. O’Brien isn’t exactly the most sexy play caller right now, but he’s had success directing offenses. Still considering the change in faces and how balky he’s been in recent years, he’ll likely want to pursue his own thing and not try to copycat Sark. Even had the now-Texas Head Coach stayed in town, odds are this offense was bound for some tweaks. Different skill sets tend to generate different offensive approaches. Like how Mac Jones wasn’t Tua Tagovailoa, Bryce Young isn’t the Joker. Saban will probably instruct O’Brien to lean into a physical ground game. But judging off his moves as the big honcho in Houston, I’m not going to try to predict anything what’s going on inside that dude’s noggin. Moving forward, however, the Tide should purge any hint of hubris riding last year’s achievements. Yes, they will be very talented. But it would be wise to at least tempter expectations until the new offensive braintrust actually demonstrates value on Saturdays.