SEC StatCat's Top5 Dropback Passers for 2021

Though a good number of passers mine dropback throws to fuel their bottom-lines, plenty of others benefit from screens and RPOs to buoy their production. Eliminating these throws from one’s output is a good start, but still isn’t good enough on determining a QB’s arm talent. Instead of using the static Completion or Accuracy percentages, let’s use a weight-adjusted clip to better gauge downfield precision. The further the pass travels, the more risk-reward is attached to that attempt. This prevents a QB from padding his numbers on short throws while omitting chances behind the line of scrimmage. Though things very well could change once the action starts, here are the SEC’s top5 passers when disregarding non-dropback attempts and measuring true downfield ball placement based off their play last season.

5. Max Johnson

Despite being on the move more than the average SEC passer, soon-to-be sophomore Max Johnson showed he has the potential to lead an offense without the guise of bells and whistles from an ingenious scheme. Though his freshman splits failed to stand out amongst the pack last year, his output is preferable to a good amount of the conference’s returners. Both his Depth Adjusted Accuracy and Success Rate on throws 10-plus yards downfield reached the 50% plateau and his 5.04% Interceptable Pass Rate finished as the SEC’s runner-up last fall. But while those stats are laudable for his age, his result-based metrics are still lukewarm ahead of 2021. 

4. KJ Jefferson

KJ Jefferson could be a major wild card in the conference’s QB discussion. Believers will point to his solid play in his limited snaps while consistently being one of the SEC’s most effective rushers off power concepts. Having a pretty good arm doesn’t hurt either. Dissenters will cling to a wonky sample and inexperience as to why he will fail to gel this season. While I can’t deny his lack of reps, I also admire Jefferson’s upside ala his top3 Dropback Depth Adjusted Accuracy from 2020. Amongst returners, he also cracked that threshold with his Uncatchable Pass Rate and Yards/Attempt. To sweeten the pie, his Success Rate targeting receivers ten or more yards downfield is top5 worthy in addition to the SEC’s premier Dropback Interceptable Pass Rate of 3.23%. 

3. JT Daniels

Behind ample deep chances and keeping more balls in play than his predecessors, plenty of advanced numbers reflect JT Daniels five-star background. In the dropback game, no SECer threw it further as much, as far, or gained more yards on average. Despite these sterling returns, his process stats hint the Bulldog experienced some fortune from his environment. Yes, his Success Rate on throws ten-plus yards downfield is tops, but nearly a fifth of his dropback attempts were uncatchable, and his 8.79% Interceptable Pass Rate finished 15th within the conference last year. Daniels’ bottomline is worth the acclaim; but if his ball placement doesn’t improve, it’s fair to wonder just how far the Bulldogs can go with that underlying flaw.

2. Matt Corral 

While donning result-based metrics that were just slightly below Daniels, Matt Corral came through with his accuracy. Though somewhat middle-of-the-road relative to other SECers last year, the Rebel’s Uncatchable Pass Rate is top5 and his Depth Adjusted Accuracy% is top3 ahead of his fall within the SEC. No doubt those two blow up games hurt his outlook. But in case you were curious, if you disregard those afternoons, his Dropback Interceptable Pass Rate would be sliced in third, his DAA would creep up five points, and nearly half of his throws resulted in either a first down or a conversion. But you know the saying about "onlys and justs"... Either way, Corral is clearly one of the best dropback passers within the SEC ahead of 2021. 

1. Myles Brennan

Myles Brennan is in the mold of a typical pocket passer. Yes, he may lack desired poise, mobility, and ability to extend plays once designs fail; but he’s undeniably accurate. In fact amongst returners, both his overall depth-adjusted accuracy as well as his clip off dropbacks stands to be the conference’s best clip entering 2021. But, the Bayou Bengal just wasn’t carving up the underbellies of coverages with easy completions. His deep accuracy joins these stats holding the SEC’s gold medal ahead of this fall. In addition to his great ball placement, Brennan sits inside the top3 in First Down+TD Rate, 10+ Success Rate, Interceptable Pass Rate, Explosive Pass Rate, and Uncatchable Pass Rate. Though far from the most dependable option, he’s the best the SEC has to offer in the dropback game as of today.