2021 Vision: Previewing Alabama

With talking season winding down, preview season is among us! I'm sure this isn't the first preseason article you've viewed. You should know the drill by now with these bad boys. But if this is your first experience with StatCat, be ready to learn a thing or two about the Crimson Tide's QB1, receiver room, rushers, OL, its most important stats to maintain and/or improve on both sides of the ball, and how Alabama's schedule breaks down with help of ESPN's SP+ Rating!

Alabama Passers

Though his stature is rather unassuming, Bryce Young is well positioned to do big things in 2021. Molded by West Coast staples as a product of Mater Dei High School, the Californian exhibits tip-top traits that scheme craves. He dons a quick release, nifty feet in structure, and precision hitting underneath targets. His sample size from last year is small and really pointless to examine. But generally speaking, it’s easy for Alabammers to get a hard-on imagining him at the helm of this offense. In addition to his solid passing toolkit, Young has some boogie to him. Mobile passers unlock much more opportunities than cement-footed pocket passers in terms of stressing out defenses. Nothing against McCorkle Jones and his robust figures from 2020, but no one feared that dude in the open field; nor was he the one to buy time for himself when a pattern faltered or his line lost upfront. However, Young’s ability to extend plays and beat folks with his legs could erase these theoretical missteps. And obviously, transforming a sack into an explosive pass is magic that not even Hogwarts can teach. 

While I have concerns about his top-end arm strength and mechanics versus pressure, there’s really no reason to believe the Tide stop rolling offensively anytime soon. Though vulnerable, Alabama is still far from imposter territory. No doubt getting too confident and locking on to his primary read could hinder his returns. Young will be put in situations to succeed without shouldering too much of the load, but his decision-making needs to be on-point. Incoming offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien will likely keep a high affinity for RPOs along with Alabama’s prevalence usage of power play action designs to facilitate easy completions and downfield chances. Like his predecessors, the modern tweaks to the offense should ease Young's growing pains and play to his strength of getting the ball out accurately in a timely manner. As long as he doesn’t give opponents stabs at turnovers consistently, his mobility, athleticism, and supporting cast should ensure the Tider ends the year with laudable result-based metrics For what it’s worth, his Depth-Adjusted Accuracy clip from last season trumped Jones. 

Alabama Rushers

Playing from ahead in advantageous spots on one of the best offenses ever helped Brian Robinson’s overall metrics look exceptional last fall. He finished runner-up within the conference in Success Rate, First Down+TD Rate, Gumption Rate, and yards after contact average. Often playing with and against backups, as 81% of his carries occurred when Alabama lead by at least a touchdown, his talent shined in the doldrums of garbage time. Despite sporting a bottom3 yards before contact average, his Yards/Carry and Broken Tackle Rate finished inside the SEC’s top10. With those admirable stable metrics, Tiders have every reason to presume Robinson can be productive immediately even if his blocking is subpar upfront. 

But, his situational splits are less absolute. First and 10 is the most common scenario in the game; behind volume and standardized conditions its a good barometer for measuring one’s down-to-down trajectory. B-Rob’s first down output was mellow and muted. While he was able to break free on other carries, consistent early defensive contact limited his such Success Rate, Y/C, and Broken Tackle Rate to finish inside the low-20’s within the SEC last season. Those figures on their face are worthy of pause. That said, you have to believe Alabama’s hog mollies can do better than foisting Robinson with a 1.24 yards before contact to start a set of downs this fall. Robinson's value occurred on carries when behind the chains and inside the red zone. In fact, his production in both of those spots were elite among his conference contemporaries returning for this season. However despite these attempts' analytical weight, they posses more variables and hence are more unpredictable and bankable year-to-year. 

Under Steve Sarkisian, Alabama deployed one of the most balanced rushing attacks in terms of zone/gap ratio in the SEC. Zones have been the preferred method to move the ball on the ground as of late within this conference. Despite that trend, the Tide dedicated over half of their designed runs towards power or gap looks. With O’Brien in T-Town, it remains to be seen if that element changes. But for what it’s worth, Robinson is one of the conference’s best returning ball carriers on powers. Only the SEC’s RB1 Chris Rodriguez sports a better resume on these tries than B-Rob. In case you were curious on the specifics, the Tider dons a 62% Success Rate, 42% First Down+TD Rate, and 15.6% Explosive Run Rate on such designs. Not that his showings on zones sucked, but these carries clearly buoyed his bottomline last season. As a super senior, Robinson could be a hard back to handle for some green conference defenders. 

Jace McClellan is also a fascinating option to come out of Alabama’s backfield. Obviously a low-volume rusher with only 23 attempts in 2020, all of his production came when the Tide rocked at least a three-score lead. So while his mighty metrics might be dazzling, it’s important to discern that garbage time production carries less weight. That said, being able to average ten yards per pop is pretty damn praise-worthy; as is a 52% Broken Tackle Rate, 30% Explosive Run Rate, and 39% First Down+TD Rate. No duh, if McClellan comes close to matching this output in meaningful minutes, O’Brien should utilize a balanced rotation. Though it remains to be seen if Trey Sanders or Roydell Williams are primed to steal some snaps, one would have to think their current positioning is well under Robinson’s and McClellans entering 2021. 

Alabama Catchers

Though overshadowed by Alabama’s cavalcade of pass catchers in recent years, John Metchie is primed for the spotlight. As a field stretcher, his style of play is undeniably impactful. By the counting stats, he enters 2021 with the SEC’s most yards yards, 2nd-most catches, and a share of the most combined first downs and TDs. But, Metchie was more than a compiler as their No. 2 guy last fall. No returning SECer can best his 24% Explosive Catch Rate, his 11.9 Yards/Target sits 3rd, and his 57.3% Success Rate ranks 6th. Much of these returns are thanks to his skills working deep. Along with holding the SEC’s most such yards, catches, targets, and TDs ahead of this fall, his bang-for-buck bottomline boosted his efficiency profile into the top5. With an inexperienced passer, these plays absolutely could help negate growing pains. Moreover, Metchie proved to be one of the conference’s premier players when targeted behind the chains last year. Naturally, these were often spots where his verticality shined. Behind a 14.4 average depth of target when disadvantaged by down and distance, no SECer can boast a better 14.8 yards/target or 30.6% Explosive Catch Rate. Plus, his Success Rate, First Down+TD Rate, and yards after the catch average each landed in the top3. Certainly one of the best the conference has to offer, Metchie still needs to work on drops. By volume, he totaled 10 last season; only Auburn’s Seth Williams had more. A mere three peers rock a worse such rate than his 13.3% clip ahead of 2021. Built to play outside the numbers with size, he just has to work on being more consistent in that sense. Based on his big play prowess, Metchie should be trusted to clean up those butterfingers as the Tide’s primary. 

John Metchie's 2020 Target Chart                                                                                                                                                        Slade Bolden's 2020 Target Chart

Slade Bolden will be the Robin to Metchie’s Batman. Based on what viewers saw during Alabama’s spring game, folks might be seeing more Bolden on the outside when the Tide deploys 12 personnel even though he only has one career catch from that grouping entering this season. Traditionally, he has functioned as a slot and an occasional wildcat set runner. According to his previous efficiencies, he should do well in helping the good times keep on rolling. As one of the most dedicated midrange targets within the SEC, his intermediate Yards/Target, Catch Rate, and Depth Adjusted Catch Rate all rank 7th ahead of this fall. Only one SECer saw a higher percentage of their chances occur between 11-20 yards downfield than Bolden’s 43.3% makeup. Plus on pure dropback attempts (ie no screens or RPOs), he didn’t drop a single target. Without the wasted chances, his 57.1% Success Rate managed to best Metchie’s figure. And, it definitely doesn’t hurt that his dropback Yards/Target and First Down+TD Rate are top10-worthy. Situationally, Bolden’s production was buoyed by his early down performances. His 82.6% Catch Rate and 52.2% clip of his targets resulting in either a conversion or a score both hold the SEC’s bronze medal for this fall. Plus his 61% Success Rate shares the 6-spot. Nine routes fielded between 2-3 attempts. Despite working from a diverse route tree last year, he has a noticeable lack of vertical routes on his resume. As it were, the Tider only saw one deep target in 2020. With that information, one could infer his horizontal and underneath operation would pair well with Metchie’s downfield approach. 

Alabama has been the SEC’s most prevalent and effective offense with two tight ends on the field lately, but the plurality of the Tide’s snaps will still likely incorporate three receivers. O’Brien’s preference on whether or not to lock his dudes in the same spots or move them around the formation remains to be seen. But, opportunity exists for a tertiary option to emerge. All of the candidates are green and present murky outlooks with none having substantial stats to lean on. Though most were highly-touted recruits, StatCat is firmly Team Believe It When I See It. Javon Baker and Xavier Williams present similar builds and skill sets at 6’1, 180-ish. But the latter has been removed from the roster dealing with medical issues. Spry Thaiu Jones-Bell appears to be a YAC specialist, and Traeshon Holden is a big body guy in the mold of Metchie keen working on an island. Freshman Ja’Corey Brooks, Christian Leary, and Agiye Hall also can’t be ruled out from sneaking into the rotation. Considering the latter’s magic skills in Alabama’s A-Day game, Hall looks particularly exciting and is a good bet for shooting up the depth chart. For what it’s worth, Holden also balled in that outing. While I don’t like to put too much faith into one glorified practice, those two dudes looked capable to help this offense in 2021.  

Though Major Tennison will be used to solidify the Tide’s run game versatility and overall blocking ability, Jahleel Billingsley’s could be Alabama’s secret sauce. As jaw-droppingly unique as Kyle Pitts was as a pass catcher moving around Florida’s formation and being targeted at all depths of the field, he still wasn’t utilized as an at-the-snap motion threat like the Tider. It’s hard enough to find quality receivers that demand a defense’s attention in that context let alone a tight end. His stats compared to his peers are in a class of their own. Outside of a single drop souring his bottomline, Billingsley dons a 85.7% First Down+TD Rate and 17.7 Yards/Target. The latter only trailed teammate Jaylen Waddle within the SEC last year. So yea, his metrics are mighty and back up his potential. Though an increased sample size will naturally diminish his numbers, not a lot of prospects have fewer negatives on their profile than the Tide’s tight end. And again if you want to get hyped over spring buzz or his A-day performance, Cameron Latu should help Alabama’s affinity for two-tight end sets stick. Obviously, the converted outside linebacker is an unconventional player, but there’s too much positivity around his name to dismiss his chances of providing value for this unit. 

Glancing at Alabama’s Offensive Line

Replicating last year’s efficiency will be expected as Alabama reloads with another formidable front line. Being the guys after the guys is always a tricky situation. But at least, some of the guys are back and ready to kick ass. Evan Neal is one of Pro Football Focus’ highest graded offensive lineman ahead of this fall and carries first round pick aspirations. After starting the last two years on the right side, he’ll now be protecting Bryce Young’s blindside. Assuming it all goes to plan, he will end up as Alabama’s latest All-American. Chris Owens has the center spot on lock as does returning starter Emil Ekiyor Jr. at right guard. While a fantastic foundation, unknowns exist at right tackle and left guard. Kendall Randolph and Javion Cohen are presumed to be the respective front runners for those spots. That said, no doubt this position group is sharpening its iron behind the scenes. Don’t count out, JC Latham, Terrence Ferguson, Dameion George, or Tommy Brockermeyer from getting snaps or outright winning a spot as well. 

Either way, the Tide have sported the SEC’s best rushing Success Rate and have sat inside the top3 in Explosive Run Rate each of the last two seasons. Despite those returns, Bama has placed no better than 8th in rush yards before contact against conference foes in meaningful minutes. As long as Nick Saban is still head coach, the run game will come first. Crowded boxes be damed, StatCat is challenging this unit to average better than 2.5 YBC — a mark this bunch has failed to beat since 2017. With a young gun in the backfield, paving wider run paths will help the whole operation run smoother. Moreover, maintaining pristine pockets is paramount. Preventing dropbacks under duress has been one of the key elements for Alabama’s recent explosiveness. The Tide have finished with a top4 Sack Rate each of the last two years along with their Pass Havoc and Pressure Rates placing first or second. Running back those numbers is a hard ask; but at this point; that's the assumption for a lot of people. 

Key Offensive Metrics in SEC Play

Considering the Tide are coming off a historic season with blazing bottomlines in essentially every offensive metric, the obvious answer is to replicate the whole damn shebang. I mean, when a passing game finds situational success on nearly two-thirds of its dropbacks with over a fifth resulting in a gain of 20+ yards, who wouldn’t want to run back that level of efficiency? But looking at the returning parts pragmatically, Alabama’s offense will suffer far less hiccups early on if the Tide can maintain its top3 Pressure and Sack Rates from a year ago. Duress and disruption need to be kept at a minimum for Bryce Young to orchestrate this attack. And obviously regardless of age, it’s way easier to play pitch and catch without some dude barreling towards you. Moreover, the less this new-look offense moves backwards, the better. Managing a stuffed run or a slight loss is far less of a hurdle to recover from than a ten yard sack. Clear passing lanes and pristine pockets will absolutely go a long way to facilitate big gainers and generate the best results for this offense. If that happens and Young is as good as advertised, Bill O’Brien’s bunch should have every reason to believe it will finish inside the SEC’s top5 across the board. 

Though the Tide are certainly yearning to maintain the majority of their metrics from last year in SEC play, which is a singular challenge on its own merit, Alabama could stand to shore up its yards before contact average. I hate to sound like a broken record, because I brought up both of these statistical points in the OL section. But this offense’s sustainability on the ground moving forward would undoubtedly fortify if its ball carriers faced less obstacles in their path. Again, the Tide have finished in back half of this conference consecutive seasons in YBC. Luckily, Najee Harris was one of the SEC’s better tackle breakers and producers after contact. So, the end results were pretty good. But not every back is cut out to make dudes miss in the hole or run over others consistently. Reiterating StatCat’s aforementioned challenge: this line needs average over 2.5 yards before contact in league play. Both by land and air, solid line play will facilitate the rest of this offense’s pieces to fall into place and function at their maximum capacity in an attempt to follow up 2020’s glory. Falterings upfront would leave the Tide vulnerable to be clipped. 

Key Defensive Metrics in SEC Play

As an offensive guy, I generally gloss over defensive previews. Not that I don’t think individual defensive players aren’t valuable or dislike a blindside sack or athletic INT every once in awhile, but I typically treat that side of the ball as a collective unit. As only one guy, I can only track so much, yanno? You won’t get many fun defensive nuggets from me. That said, the Tide bring back starters in ends Justin Eboigbe, Phidarian Mathis, nose guard DJ Dale, backers Christopher Allen, Christian Harris, Will Anderson, and DBs Josh Jobe, Jordan Battle, Daniel Wright, and Malachi Moore. With such continuity paired with Nick Saban’s direction, many have the Tide among the nation’s top units entering 2021. 

Maintaining the league’s premier Defensive Success Rate, Sack Rate, and Scoring Drive Rate for the second-straight year obviously would go a long way to help the Tide finish among college football’s elites. Captain Obvious wanted me to remind you winning most snaps, restricting points, and obtaining game-altering sacks helps teams win ballgames. No these aspirations aren’t novel or revolutionary, but these elements are unavoidable if one wants to field one of the top defenses around. In 2020, conditions helped collectively deteriorate and weaken defenses. So while the the Tide’s defense did improve in some areas, a good amount of their numbers went from being average to near the SEC’s best despite modest, minimal, or negative improvement year-over-year. Their First Down+TD Rate and 15+ Play Rate are decent posterchildren for this happenstance. It’s one thing to be relatively awesome, and its another being all-time good. This unit could be one, both, or disappoint with a mediocre showing. 

Plus, it’s not like this lot doesn’t have areas to address. Though the conference’s top down-to-down unit, Alabama’s defense wasn’t the best at getting opponents off the field. Behind a middling 41.5% 3rd Down Success Rate, no SEC defense sported a lower 3-and-Out Rate than their 16.4% clip. Again, it was fortunate these extended efforts largely didn’t result in scoring chances. But, snuffing out the situations where opponents can manufacture momentum and be fueled by glimmers of hope remain paramount for the Tide to ride back to the College Football Playoff. With defensive play increasingly becoming more bend-don’t-break and situational affairs, this group must execute more proficiently in those spots. Winning first and second downs consistently carries less weight when one constantly allows conversions on the money down. Plus, Alabama was really average allowing splash plays despite their otherwise excellent defensive consistency. Its Explosive Pass Explosive Run Rates each finished ranked seventh within the conference. The Tide should have a positive number of big gainers compared to most of their opponents. But considering the explosive play battle has a higher correlation to victory than turnovers these days, Saban and Co. would be wise to tighten up the loose screws and stifle those opportunities.  

Glancing at Alabama’s Schedule

For most, seeing Crimson Tide enter another season ranked and rated as the nation’s top team in college football hardly comes as a surprise. Despite a good amount of offensive turnover, the defense returns mostly intact. Either way, ESPN’s SP+ views both as top4 units ahead of September. Since they can’t play themselves, their schedule is overly an average slate relative to their conference contemporaries ranking 8th-easiest. They are projected to win every game by at least a touchdown; seven games have a margin of three scores of more. After their bye week, all of their matchups look to be decided by no less than 14 points; all but the Iron Bowl will occur in Tuscaloosa. Coming off one of the most impressive and highest graded seasons ever, neither the SP+ or Football Power Index give their opponents more than a 34% of victory in any contest. As one of the mightiest teams in the land, the folks in the desert have set a high bar worthy of this program’s pedigree. Vegas set Alabama’s under/over win total at 11.5 games. Meaning in order for backers to cash in, the Tide need to sweep their entire slate. For those curious, Saban’s squad has only entered the postseason unscathed by a loss twice. Of course, last year was one of those instances. 

Going off of history and a palpable vulnerability, the current betting money, SP+ and FPI are all pessimistic in the Tide’s chances to trump their under/over win total. Again, no one is really expecting the Tide to mightily struggle over great chunks of their schedule. But with a new QB1, RB1, some receivers, and a couple of lineman, bookies and analysts alike agree that Alabama is beatable. While their offense faces four top30 units (2 in the top15), Saban’s defense is set to square up against five top25 adversaries themselves, tied for most in the SEC. With the exception to Auburn’s 22nd-rated defense, Alabama plays all of its most challenging combatants the first six games. Though half are seen as comfortable victories, the remaining three are projected to be decided by a TD or less. Hell, the state of Florida will throw its two best teams at the Tide the first month of the season. So, dissenters might not have to wait too long to see if Alabama misses its mark. Since all of Alabama’s one-score games will be on the road, eyes will be on Bryce Young’s performances in those spots. Manny Diaz, Todd Grantham, and Mike Elko are likely to use differing tactics, but they all should tinker to make the sophomore slinger beat them. Plus, Miami, Florida and Texas A&M all have mobile passers that can extend plays and potentially win outside of structure. As sound as Saban’s defenses have been operating within the blueprint of its scheme, there’s no denying some teams have lucked into wins via the natural randomness of the game behind scrambles and backyard ball. As everyone’s “Super Bowl” on the schedule, Alabama will take plenty of punches this season. But to quote the mastermind of the SP+ Bill Connolly, “The Tide have ranked in the SP+ top three for 12 straight years and have been No. 1 for four of the past five. They're the surest thing in football.” Opportunity certainly exists to capsize the Tide, but this team is too talented to assume anyone knocks them off their trajectory to finish inside the money for the 13th consecutive season.