2021 Staturday Adventure: Week 1

Ahhhh Week 1. That distinct moment in time when every team rocks an unblemished record, fans yearn to gobble up every sizzle reel their brains can absorb, degenerates scan copious matchups eager to come across a gem of a line, and no one’s bombastic opinions have yet gone up in flames. Welcome, friends. College football is back! 

The opening week of the season can be bittersweet at times. But while most teams will be using this week to stuff some stats or work out the kinks against some cream puffs, the Gridiron Gods blessed us with a trio of terrific matchups that hopefully will live up to hype. Though not all are in the same spot exiting the circumstances surrounding last year, all six teams are ranked inside the top20 and have title aspirations. Of course, one (or three) of these squads could faceplant out of the gate. Still, Saturday is set up to be a wonderful kickoff of the 2021 season. According to ESPN’s SP+, all three of this weekend’s ranked matchups are projected to be decided by single digits. So without filibustering further, let's take a look at these games!

Penn State (+5.5) @ Wisconsin -- Saturday 9/4 Noon (Fox)

Directly following the pageantry and passion-filled pregame shows, America will be thirsty for some quality football action. But unfortunately, this Big Ten tilt will likely serve up a rock fight. Last fall, neither Penn State nor Wisconsin finished inside the nation’s top50 in scoring offense. Moreover, both offense’s finished without a positive Expected Points Added clip per cfp-graphs.com. In other words, neither unit’s cumulative output delivered a net gain over the course of the season. Since it’s an offense’s job to manufacture value, that’s a pretty damning happenstance for the Badgers and Nittany Lions. In addition to last year’s stumbles fielding fruitful attacks anchoring disbelief in a shootout, both teams are firm defensively. In terms of yardage, each defense placed inside the top20 nationally. Plus, Wisconsin’s unit commands a top10 scoring figure after allowing only 17 points/game. 

Of course, those stats wouldn’t mean as much unless both teams brought back a fair amount of production. Luckily enough for them, that happens to be the case. Less so with the Nittany Lions thanks to losing some offensive cogs. But, the Badgers bring back 83% of their total team output according to ESPN, which ranks 13th nationally. A considerable amount of continuity should deliver better on-field products this fall for both. Plus the normal, untruncated schedule won’t produce wonky metrics moving forward from these two top15 squads. For what it’s worth, both the SP+ and F+ believe each offense musters a top32 unit despite last season’s sour bottomlines.

Though Wisconsin is thought to be more smashmouth and Penn State more spread-run, neither team managed to establish a serviceable ground game. While logging a moderate Line Yards clip that placed in the mid-40’s, The Nittany Lions generated an uninspiring 41% Rushing Success Rate. Inversely, the Badgers begat a moderate 44% such clip but finished in the triple digits in Line Yards. To fit those flat figures, neither team trumpets hefty volume numbers to drum up much excitement. 

Interestingly enough, two freshmen wound up as each offense’s leading rusher. Wisconsin is excited about what Jalen Berger can offer in an extended role. Last year, he accounted for over a quarter of the team’s rush yards while being the only Badger over 15 touches to average at least 5.0 Yards/Carry. Penn State will bring back its committee of ball carriers consisting of the aforementioned Keyvone Lee -- who racked up 438 yards -- Devyn Ford, Caziah Holmes, and Noah Cain off the IL. Additionally, seven combined starters between the two squads return upfront. 

Sean Clifford’s stock took a considerable tumble in 2020. Though his debut season produced 23 TDs and a 8.3 Yards/Attempt, no Big Ten QB tossed as many INTs than his nine last year. Despite having a proportion greater than 3 in 2019, Clifford’s TD:INT ratio finished under 2 last fall. At year’s end, Clifford turned in a rather unassuming 45% Success Rate and 0.09 EPA/pass. The latter placed roughly in the 35th Percentile among all passers since 2014. With both of his top two backups taking their talents elsewhere and no other clear alternative, this offense needs him to shake off last year’s funk fast. A new voice in the room should help. Read and run-pass options have been stables for this scheme, but James Franklin and new Penn State play caller Mike Yurcich hope to instill a higher emphasis on downfield passing. Since Clifford isn’t the world’s most accurate or consistent passer, his aerial acumen operating in this fashion might fail spectuarly. Still, this staff is actively exploring ways to be more explosive. 

Clifford will at least have some fun guys to throw the ball to. Jahan Dotson has averaged at least 17.0 Yards/Catch each of the last two seasons while securing 13 scores. Parker Washington hauled in six TDs himself as a true freshman and hints to have a promising pass catching career. Whether off deliberate vertical patterns or heavy-set play fakes, the duo will be looked upon to bring a level of potency to this pass game. 

Graham Mertz had one of the most statistically-pleasing debuts in Big Ten history going 20-21 for 248 yards and 5 TDs but quickly fell back to earth. He only amassed four scores the remainder of the season while tacking on five INTs. His 6.4 Yards/Attempt emphatically insinuates he’s not ready to shoulder the load for this offense. If the Badgers cannot regain their mojo in the trenches and Mertz is forced to be this unit’s focal point, the Nittany Lions should feel good about their prospects of winning. Though an iffy defense down-to-down, they were better against the pass. Plus, I’m sure PSU would gladly take its chances against the offense who logged the nation’s 88th Passing Success Rate in 2020.  Mertz having his favorite target TE Jake Ferguson at his flank should spawn some solace. But, this scheme needs to actively pursue ways to make his job easier to create more consistent opportunities. 

What StatCat will be watching

1. How creative will Wisconsin get offensively -- often the poster child for old school football behind a sturdy run game and rock-steady defense, Wisconsin usually plays stale. Is this the year, they switch it up a bit with some more flavor and dynamism?

2. Can Penn State take care of the ball -- With 17 turnovers last year, they ranked 103rd in that respect. With a one-score line (and SP+ projection), granting a home opponent extra opportunities will likely end in a bad way for Franklin’s crew. 

3. Which team will be able to #EstablishIt -- StatCat might be a pass zealot. But with neither aerial attack cut out to operate as a down-to-down option, one of these veteran fronts will wind up fueling the path for victory for one of these teams

Alabama (-19.5) vs Miami -- Saturday 9/4, 3:30 EST (ABC)

Coming off one of the most impressive offensive showings in the history of the sport, few expect Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide to squander its recent momentum any time soon. Though losing its starting backfield, top2 pass catchers, best blocker, and lynchpin along the line will make it damn-near impossible to replicate last year’s returns, Alabama is primed to run back another championship effort. At this point, saying the Tide are “reloading” rather than “rebuilding” has become rather cliche. But, that’s the standard this program has set for itself after robust recruiting and finishing inside the SP+’s top3 a dozen-straight years. While it’s natural to be hesitant to back a team with so much personnel and coaching turnover, Alabama’s current pedigree cannot be challenged by anyone else in the sport. So until they slip up, they’ve well-earned the benefit of the doubt. Behind the general consensus that the Tide will keep rolling, their under/over win total was placed at 11.5 -- meaning in order to hit their over, they have to go undefeated in the regular season. But again, that’s the level of expectations set by this platinum program. 

Remember when Miami used to be on that level? Though there have been small surges of relevance in south Florida over the last decade, the Hurricanes are largely viewed as a program of yesteryear. Still, there is hope this team will be able to run with the sport’s big dog and potentially clip him. Much of this optimism resides in the fact Miami will field one of the most experienced teams in the country. Led by super-senior QB D’Eriq King, 91% of their overall production from 2020 is back in the fold; only UCLA and Louisiana can best that figure per ESPN. In turn, the ‘Canes boast top15 units on both sides of the ball while settling in as the SP+’s 8th-best team. Most people tend to side with talent rather than experience when presented with the two options. But since continuity is so important in forecasting football games, the ‘Canes have a much better shot than the matchup’s current 19.5 point line indicates. 

Since Manny Diaz is a defensive guy, one of the game’s major storylines will center around how he will treat Bryce Young. Though a natural instinct of coaches is to hound and overwhelm inexperienced passers with pressure, Alabama will return three lineman from its Joe Moore Award-winning front, look to increase its already prevalent usage of two-tight end sets, and maintain a healthy script of Run-Pass Options. Expecting his supporting cast to do much of the heavy lifting, Young’s west coast background will be maximized with quick, underneath patterns where he can function as a facilitator playing hot potato. Behind that M.O. and protective mechanisms in place, pressure is unlikely to manifest in time to alter his decisions or ball placement. 

While it might accentuate the ‘Cane’s run defense troubles, leaning into deception tactics and dropping more bodies into coverage could make Young buffer, hold onto the ball longer than anticipated, and be forced to operate outside of structure. Considering Miami’s downs have been one of the nation’s best generating havoc plays under Diaz’s watch, bolstering its backend isn’t the worst approach. After all, there are countless examples throughout the game’s history where rushing four and dropping seven is an effective strategy stunning worthwhile offenses. But if Young isn’t forced into mistakes, it could be an ugly, slow burn getting Alabama off the field. Though seasoned, Miami’s defense finished outside the nation’s top50 in EPA/play, Rushing and Passing Success Rate, and FEI. If the Tide start ripping off chunk carries and tempting safeties to come up to help, that’s when the ole glance posts and play action shot plays come into the picture. FYI, John Metchie owns the SEC’s top returning Explosive Catch Rate at 24.0% (20+). 

Defensively, Alabama finished 2020 as the SEC’s premier down-to-down unit. In conference play, the national champions sported the best Success Rate, Sack Rate, and Scoring Drive Rate while finishing runner-up with a 3.3% Takeaway Rate. However despite being overly sound, the Tide weren’t the best at getting off the field or curbing big gainers. In meaningful minutes, no SEC defense was worse at forcing three-and-outs while nearly a tenth of their plays resulted in either a 20-plus pass or 10-plus run. Despite sustaining success on early downs to the tune of a league-high 37.2% Success Rate, Alabama was much more middling on the money down with a 41.5% clip. Again, these opportunities rarely led to points. But considering King is in the mold of passer that has traditionally plagued Saban’s defenses, this unit needs to be on high-alert. While logging nearly 700 non-sack rushing yards, only Cincinnati's Desmond Ridder and Liberty’s Malik Willis accumulated more EPA on scrambles than King last year. Overall, the soon-to-be-sixth year finished 18th nationally. Though the ‘Canes should seek more consistency compared to last year’s returns, leaning into backyard tactics with their jitterbug passer might be their best method to unravel the Tide’s defense. 

What StatCat will be watching 

1. How will Diaz defend Young -- In order for Miami to compete, the ‘Canes need to force the inexperienced QB into mistakes. But will that mean blitzes and stunts or more drop7/8 in an attempt to confuse his processing power? 

2. Can the ‘Canes create enough plays outside of structure -- Defensively, don’t let Young extend plays and Alabama’s playmakers get open deep. Offensively, wear out Saban’s guys with papercut gains and constant elements of stress with King’s legs

3. What will Bill O’Brien’s influence on this offense look like -- Though assumed to maintain decent RPO, power run concept, play action, and 12 personnel usage, you know what happens when you assume, kids. 

   
   

Georgia (+3.0) vs Clemson -- Saturday 9/4, 7:30 EST (ABC)

Something was just off with Georgia’s offense for the majority of 2020. But, that changed once JT Daniels was inserted into the lineup. While D’wan Mathis and Stetson Bennent each logged two of the SEC’s highest Uncatchable Target Rates, Daniels at least gave his guys a stab at his shots and wasted less opportunities. By year’s end, his Yards/Attempt only trailed Mac Jones within the conference as JTD’s First Down+TD Rate and EPA/attempt cracked the top4. Behind the league’s top Deep Pass Rate and average depth of target, none of his peers matched his 18.3% Explosive Pass Rate (20+). Naturally, his returns buoyed the team’s cumulative numbers through the air. But during that stint, Daniels’ presence also boosted the Bulldogs efforts in the trenches. Though already one of the conference’s top performers, no SEC offense topped UGA’s 3.2 rush yards before contact or 6.1 Yards/Carry over the final stanza of the season. Afraid of being beaten over-the-top, safeties ventured into the box at a lower rate. In turn with less obstacles in its path, a fifth of this offense’s carries went for ten yards or more. With big plays manifesting in both facets, Georgia closed down the stretch as well as any team in the conference and set the bar mighty high for themselves for 2021.

The question for Todd Monken’s unit entering this fall is obvious: can Daniels’ potency be sustained? According to his process statistics, I’m not so sure. While his bombs found their mark at a considerable rate, his individual ball placement begat a bottom3 Depth Adjusted Accuracy clip within the SEC last year. Looking specifically at his throws beyond 20+ yards downfield, only Vanderbilt freshman Ken Seals served up a worse raw Accuracy% than his 22.2%. Plus, his wideouts combined to create eight catches for themselves -- like diving grabs, winning tossups, sideline toe-taps, or any other instance where a receiver goes above and beyond to make a play. Along with two scores, those creations accounted for just under 22% of JTD’s yards. That’s awfully significant; especially considering the guy who logged the majority of them is on the mend. In addition to his less-than-keen precision, UGA’s QB1 rocked a 7.50% Interceptable Pass Rate across his sample. It’s one thing to make your target adjust to an attempt, but it's another thing entirely giving the defense a chance at a takeaway.  Either way with a cavalcade of capable pass catchers, Georgia will continue to lean into stretching secondaries to capture splash gains. But with that position group not at full strength, a good amount of folks will remain skeptical that strategy will work out Saturday night.

That said, trading consistency for explosiveness might not be such a bad idea against Brent Venables' mighty defense. The Tigers stand to return 92% of their defensive production according to SP+ mastermind Bill Connelly, which is the 3rd-highest figure in the country. Plus, they finished inside the top10 in both Rushing and Passing Success Rate last fall. As one of the best against the run, the Tigers’ Stuff Rate also crossed that threshold while logging the nation’s 13th-best Line Yards clip. In other words, good luck stringing together numerous drives with plays in the double-digits against this bunch. On the other hand, Clemson’s defensive EPA/play just cracked the top dozen, and they ranked 35th in passer rating allowed. Though fantastic at stifling opponents, sometimes Venables’ aggressive scheme leaves his coveragemen susceptible to chunk plays. Clemson’s secondary is seasoned, but still leaves a little to be desired in terms of onfield performance. Testing them often could be UGA’s ticket for an upset. After all, winning the explosive play battle is highly correlated to victories these days; more so than snatching turnovers. 

Because of that, Kirby Smart should worry about his own backend. The Dawgs finished as the SP+’s premier defensive unit last year but got torched against the SEC’s elite offenses in Alabama and Florida. In those two tilts, this secondary allowed a 59.2% Passing Success Rate and 11.7 Yards/Pass. Overall, about an eighth of their snaps against those offenses resulted in a gain of at least 15 yards. In their remaining nine games, those figures shrunk to 41.6%, 5.65, and 5.67%, respectively. But on the whole, Smart’s defense finished outside the top45 in EPA/play and Passing Success Rate; far below the standard that championship-craving program is striving for.

Despite entering as the favorite, D.J. Uiagalelei and Co. can’t approach this matchup passively and should seek to expose the Bulldogs’ so-so secondary. The transfer portal additions of Tykee Smith and the turncoat Derion Kendrick should definitely raise UGA’s ceiling. But, banking on that unit to gel immediately would be foolish; especially considering Smith will not suit up for this matchup. While Clemson lost a good deal of offensive talent, returning one of the ACC’s most dependable wideouts in Justyn Ross is massive. No doubt, the Tigers are hoping he’s back to his pre-injury self -- the one with 17 career scores, nearly 2,000 yards, and 17.0 Yards/Catch in two years' work. As things currently stand, he’ll be Uialgalelei’s top target. Even if some schematic tweaks occur to better suit his sophomore slinger’s skillset, Dabo’s offense should keep floating along. The SP+ certainly thinks so as it projects Clemson to have a top5 unit on that side of the ball. For what it’s worth, that prognostic metric likes the 2nd-ranked Tigers to just cover the current 3-point spread. 

What StatCat will be watching 

1. JT Daniels’ ball placement -- will it remain lackluster or will he develop into a top-tier professional prospect? For the upset to occur, he can’t be too sloppy in that department

2. Who will win the LOS -- both O-Lines return three starters and each defensive front was stout versus the run. The aerial battle will likely decide the victor, but both schemes will still want to #EstablishIt

3. The big play battle -- At least looking at games including at least one SEC team, the side that has logged more 20-plus passes+10-plus runs has won 63% of games since 2018 -- more than the winner of the turnover battle, middle8, or time of possession. Two iffy secondaries should spell for a decent chance of Week1 fireworks.