Matt Corral: A Questionable QB1

Everyone loves quarterback talk. Since it's the most important position in the sport and a passer's ability can often be the difference between victory or defeat—or sustained success or maintained mediocrity—extra weight is put into analyzing these fellows. While most fans are content with volume stats such as completions, yards, and touchdowns scored, those archaic metrics do little to tell the story of how a passer actually operates. 

Though opinions are still evolving, Matt Corral is presently viewed as this crop of passer’s No.1 option. Draft season is full of cliches and buzzwords. And frankly, the best one that describes the Ole Miss product is “gamer”. He reeks of palpable confidence and bravery. And despite being hindered by injuries, fearsome fronts, and countless instances behind the chains, Corral has a sizable portfolio of attention-grabbing plays. All the while, the former Rebel dons an average frame at 6’2, 205 lbs – and that might be a little generous. But, he definitely makes up for it in heart. Though there’s some flamboyance to his game, Corral cares. 

His zeal is admirable, but the hits have taken a toll on the Californian. Ailments to not only Corral but his supporting cast prevented Ole Miss’s offense from reaching its ceiling. For much of 2021, the Rebel’s health dictated an abrupt scheme change that gave the hobbled passer figurative crutches. No SEC starter in recent memory turned in a higher composition of attempts and yards coming off screens, RPOs, or dropback play action than his 76% clip. Feleipe Frank’s one-and-done year at Arkansas set the previous mark at 71%. Heck, Corral was gifted 29 tap passes. No other SECer had more than ten. 

Since football very much is a “what have you done for me lately” kind of entity, loads of questions, comments, and concerns arise after examining his junior year. Again, there’s a good amount of tape regarding Corral’s upside. But taking into account his history of getting hurt, the fact that he never truly established himself as an alpha QB nationally, and needed schematics to buoy his production, he’s worthy of some scrutiny; especially if he’s about to be trusted with the keys to an NFL franchise. 

ACCURACY / BALL PLACEMENT

Josh Allen outliers be damned, I still fall into the camp that a passer’s accuracy can only improve so much at the next level. Inaccurate collegiate passers rarely get their shit together in the pros. Captain Obvious wanted me to remind you that QBs need to be reliable throwers of the football and hit open targets. 

Corral can be trusted in this regard, but he still lacks premier precision. His Uncatchable Target Rate improved each season and earned the SEC’s bronze medal in 2021. Plus, his raw Accuracy% on throws beyond the line of scrimmage finished 5th and 3rd within the conference the last two years. That said, his Depth Adjusted Accuracy% – a metric that applies more risk/reward the further passes travel downfield – never finished better than 5th in the SEC. Across his career, Corral’s 47% figure was basically average by SEC standards. 

Though a passer with a tight delivery and adequate feet, Corral developed errancy when throwing downfield on play fakes, a tactic Kiffin and Lebby loved to feature. Even on routes where his man was wide-the-hell-open, targets would be slightly behind or off. At the end of the day, throwing catchable balls is all what truly matters in order for results to be had. But constantly asking receivers to make adjustments to balls in the air is hardly a sound ingredient for an offense hoping to maximize its play calls. Under Kiffin, over a third of Corral’s attempts utilized dropback play action. But his such Accuracy% was only 54.5%. Neither that or his Depth Adjusted clip managed to rank better than 6th within the SEC. The volume paired with the so-so ball placement definitely had a negative effect on his numbers. 

No matter how you slice it, Corral failed to look exceptional when targeting beyond 20 yards downfield. Like most of his returns, he was still largely preferable to the average SEC passer, but he never truly was the best the conference had to offer. After all, two of his three campaigns resulted in him being just as likely to throw an uncatchable attempt as an on-point one in this area of the field. But, believers in his ability will cling to his showings from 2020 where his 57% Completion% and 45% Accuracy% each finished inside the top4. Outside of the stats, he sports a proclivity to lead the upfield shoulder and seems to have enough drive to make a difference in the pros even if his arm isn’t otherworldly. 

Plus, Corral’s steady midrange improvement can help flavor his bland deep figures. While his makeup has fluctuated, his Accuracy%, Uncatchable%, and Interceptable% all have gotten better each subsequent season on throws between 11-20 yards downfield. In 2021, all three finished in the money with the former commanding the SEC’s gold medal with a 57.1% clip. But just so you know, that figure was 11 points worse than Mac Jones’ league-leading figure from the previous fall. 

Corral’s general accuracy is fine. He doesn’t waste too many chances and tends to give his dudes stabs at targets. Further refinement is needed; no great pro passer dons decent-at-best ball placement. Still, this characteristic isn’t as major of a liability to him compared to some other prospects over the last half decade. A competent staff should have plenty to work with even if it's not golden out of the gate.

DECISION-MAKING / Aggressiveness

As aforementioned, Corral received a bunch of help from Lebby’s play calls this past season. Nearly 32% of his attempts targeted a screen or an RPO, and a gaudy 29% were directed behind the line of scrimmage. Though some thinking is required to execute these designs, any passer can find efficient numbers since they’re drawn up to win in space. The production is largely out of their hands. So while they can help pad one’s bottomline, these plays hardly reflect what a QB can offer an offense when asked to drop back, scan the field, and find an open target. 

This modus operandi saw his average depth of target decrease by over two yards year-over-year, which naturally helped his Interceptable Pass Rate shrink to 4.4%. All the while, half of his throws beat situational goals and over an eighth generated a gain of 20+ yards. The last two seasons, Corral’s Explosive Pass Rate has cracked the SEC’s top4 with his First Down+TD Rate rocking the bronze medal. When asked to go get completions, he’s been worthy of the first-round acclaim. 

However, Corral caped for himself plenty and didn’t mind pressing his luck on occasion (go look at his Egg Bowl clippings if you care to see examples on both ends of the spectrum). His Contested Pass Rate diminished each year (from 28% to 23% to 14%), but his such Interceptable Pass Rate has comfortably sat in the double-digits. The results varied. He commanded SEC’s top Success Rate (46.2%) in 2020, but turned in a bottom4 figure  (21.8%) this fall. So it’s a good thing Bryce Young and Hendon Hooker were the only other QBs in the conference less prone at targeting tight windows. Moreover, his Accuracy% in this context never beat the conference average. Despite having a nice vertical drive to his throws, his fast ball on contested chances wasn't a statistical strength.

Plus, Corral has a track record of getting duped. Granted, his booboos were centralized to the Auburn and Arkansas games in 2020. But half of his college interceptions occurred on non-contested targets. Or in other words, these were either gross misfires or misreads. It’s one thing to be gung-ho testing tight windows; and it's another to telegraph passes, go thru the motions, or fail to diagnose coverages. 

But all else considered, he isn’t prone on hitting defenders with the football. And, that’s a major selling point. The fewer opportunities defenses have at touching the football, the better. The last two seasons, Corral’s Defender Breakup Rate has been top5 worthy within the SEC. During his breakout sophomore year, only 20 of his 326 attempts were altered by opponents, which was easily the best mark among full-time starters. 

Play Making / Under Pressure

Corral’s college profile is a great case study to display the year-to-year volatility of unstable spots like 3rd downs and play under pressure. Since those situations have unique variables that aren’t particularly seen on a down-to-down basis, they are less predictive of one’s typical output. Though areas where everyone wants to see their passers excel, these snaps aren’t indicative of a QB’s upside. That said, Corral donned a top2 Completion%, Accuracy%, and Success Rate on 3rd down in 2020. additionally, he was the only SECer with double-digit Yards/Attempt. This year, his efficiencies plummeted to the conference’s cellar largely due to a league-high 14.4% Drop Rate. No one had a worse Success Rate and only Auburn’s new QB Zach Calzada posted a lower Y/A on the money down. 

With the thirst for toolsy QBs who can orchestrate plays out of thin air when things break down, Corral’s sophomore splashes hint he can quench those urges. His snaps outside the pocket followed the same trend as his 3rd down output and went from rosey to rocky when not at full strength; as did his performance under duress. A healthy Corral (with Elijah Moore to play with) was the SEC’s most accurate dropback thrower when pressured. Moreover, his First Down+TD Rate, Uncatchable Pass Rate and average depth of target ranked 3rd. Coupled with his late down heroics, the momentum his metrics created ahead of this fall was credible. But as hinted, his Pressured 1D+TD Rate and Accuracy% failed to finish in the single-digits within the SEC, and Corral’s such Uncatchable Pass Rate ballooned 7.5 points. 

While this piece of analysis is inherently wonky, solace can be had noticing Corral’s care for the football. Under duress, his Interceptable Pass Rate has shrunk from 15% to 7% to 5%. And with his Dropback Pressure Rate increasing each passing season, that’s a bonafide eyebrow-raiser on the statsheet. His overall output under pressure is middling. But again, there’s immense value in a youngster who avoids tossing the ball to defenses; especially when bullets are flying by. 

I believe Corral has enough athleticism for the next level. He might not be Kyler Murray, but who’s to say he doesn't have the same giddy-up as Joe Burrow? That said, his burst and occasional slipperiness have not translated to a heightened return of avoiding sacks. Sure, there are some exceptions with blown assignments. But, sacks in NFL circles are commonly seen as QB-driven stats. With that in mind, Corral has been very mediocre being brought down behind the line. Each year, his Sack Rate has flirted with the SEC’s average. By volume, his total has beefed up from 11 to 18 to 24. And though his dropback pressure:sack ratio has improved each year, he never placed on the good side of the conference mean in that respect. 

Either way, Corral is undeniably mobile when healthy. By StatCat’s count, he logged 104 scrambles at Ole Miss including north of 40 the last two years. These snaps have generated a commendable 50.9% Success Rate and 21.5% Explosive Run Rate. Just so you know, the average SEC rusher turned in clips of 47.3% and 15.7%, respectively, in 2021. And that’s on designed runs. In structure, Corral’s efficiency remained just as steady. Across his tenure in Oxford, half of his true runs ended in success with about a fifth gaining ten yards or more. Designed carries or not, he’s well-suited to be an outright pest with the ball in his hands – all the way down to his unorthodox sliding style that invites targeting at the risk of his battered cerebral cortex. 

“Passing Floor”

Though pressured attempts and plays outside of structure are used to guesstimate a passer’s potential, one’s “floor” is determined by measuring efficiency on clean+dropback+non-play action snaps. The idea behind this parameter aims to strip all the variables that might potentially affect a QB’s efforts and track them under more stable conditions. The premise is simple: When asked to execute the scheme as designed with no excuses or guises, can you go out and get completions? No blitzers to blame for busting a design, no screens or RPOs to fudge the numbers, no play fakes manipulating coverages. How consistent and reliable can you be on schedule? 

Since Corral especially operated with abundant help from his scheme, attempting to separate him from that environment is imperative to determine what kind of passer he truly is down-to-down. By volume, he logged 14 less attempts from structure inside the pocket in 2021 than in 2019 despite more than doubling up his number of throws, which accentuates how much his sample is “tainted” by this predominant style of play. 

Statistically speaking, some of the same silver linings seen in other aspects emerge. His Depth Adjusted Accuracy% and Interceptable Pass Rate have enhanced each year. Per his top5 ADOTs and top4 Explosive Pass Rate, he’s keen on seeking big gainers. Plus, he’s dependable to dispatch catchable targets.

Again, his 2020 numbers are the major bright spots. Behind a laudable 58% Success Rate and 50% First Down+TD Rate, his backers will bank on Corral returning to form with a professional supporting cast and clean bill of health. However, his freshman and junior metrics are sobering reminders that Corral might just be an okay passer and nothing more. On the whole, his returns scream he isn’t a top-tier passing prospect. Stats might be for losers, but few NFL QBs can succeed riding middling process metrics. Despite some of the positive trends, Corral will enter the NFL after logging pedestrian results and subpar ball placement metrics when not leaning on guises or scheme elements. 

CONCLUSION

Matt Corral's 2021 Pass Chart                                                                                                    Matt Corral's 2020 Pass Chart

Even though I have affinity for elements of his game, I don’t feel outright comfortable labeling him as a high-end first rounder. This time last year, I felt he could work himself into the very position he finds himself in. Viewed as the SEC's clear QB1 thanks to his deep accuracy and overall year-to-year jump, running back a similar campaign would've sent him over the top and earned him the desired prestige. Of course, that didn't happen. Fortunately, falters by his peers have allowed him to ascend to the top of the heap almost by default.

Corral is a mixed bag prospect. Despite his clear love of the game, he can be reckless with his body and put himself into harm’s way. He does a nice job of keeping the ball away from defenses, but lacks consistent accuracy. He can push passes downfield without too many ducks or duds, but doesn’t have a sturdy resume targeting tight windows or threading the needle. And, he’s experienced both the highs and lows of unstable reps. 

Since every single one of this class’s passers has some sort of baggage, I have no problem if some team gets the itch to make him the first QB taken in this spring’s draft. And once one team treats him as the golden boy, so will another. And, a proverbial arms race will commence for his services. Like dreadful Non-fungible Tokens, all it takes is one person to drive the demand and make him a highly-sought after commodity. He might not possess any elite skill, but Corral owns discernible swagger, an intangible that attracts scouts like a siren’s wail. 

That Matt Corral is a gamer, 

scramblin’ just for fun

He’ll get knocked ‘round and upside down, 

A jack of all trades, master of none.