Impact QB Scouting Report: Devin Leary, Kentucky
Impact QB Scouting Report: Devin Leary
Everyone loves quarterback talk. Since it's the most important position in the sport and a passer's ability often can be the difference between a victory or defeat, extra weight is put into analyzing these fellows. While most fans are content with volume stats like completions, yards, and touchdowns scored, the archaic metrics do little to tell the story of how a passer actually operates. What if a passer leaned more on screens or lived on the wild side by pressing downfield more often or benefited from being a game manager?
To cut through the clutter and actually provide some illuminating content this time of year, I decided to chart all 30 of On3’s top Impact QBs against their most challenging defensive opponents to get a better understanding of how the group functions. Instead of letting matchups against Poop State infiltrate our passers’ profiles, focusing on quality opponents present much firmer samples and strong indications of how this lot projects to the next level. Using ESPN’s SP+ Ratings and Expected Points Added/pass to set our benchmarks, each QB was charted against a 5-6 game sample. Some guys still had much easier slates compared to their peers. Nonetheless, this methodology is very helpful in exposing one’s true colors.
In this piece, UK's Devin Leary will be the subject. We’ll breakout his profile overall, throwing downfield, working under pressure, surviving outside the pocket, targeting tight windows, operating the dropback game (along with play action), and their “passing floor'' based on how he performed in structure without adversity or schematic elements. And unlike other Impact QBs, Leary's scope was expanded to include 2021.
(To optimize graphics on mobile, tilt device horizontally)
| Height | Weight | Passing Yards | Pass TDs | INTs | ESPN QBR |
| 6'1 | 215 | 1,265 | 11 | 4 | 55.7 |
The Skinny:
A slight passer with a snappy delivery. Excellent down-to-down accuracy. Light on his feet with decent escapability skills. Can matriculate but has good vertical juice and tends to lead men downfield. Subpar frame results in occasional biffs; especially when vision is obstructed.
The Fat:
In case you haven’t heard, Leary’s stock took a hit last year. After posting one of the most efficient marks in college football in 2021, his 2022 campaign once inflated by high hopes quickly crashed and burned thanks to injury and regressed play. But while his results and process soured, making any definitive conclusions from that hobbled performance would be foolish; as would blindly assuming he’ll find his old form in a brand new environment. Odds are, his play will likely fall somewhere in the middle of those two extremes. So to conservatively gauge what he’ll bring to the table for 2023, Leary’s Impact sample includes five of his hardest foes from each of the last two seasons.
In addition to backbreaking double-digit Drop Rates that decimated his bottomline, his key traits carried over year-to-year. Leary’s main selling point is his golden accuracy. Though some of his operation was fueled by screens and RPOs, he proved to be a confident and consistent pre-snap processor and snappy post-snap distributor no matter the design. There’s little wasted motion in his tight, compact rotation and passes arrive quickly. Plus, his placement tends to be away from defenders. But while his arm gets the focus, Leary has some of the best feet in the class. He might not be a burner or buster. But his vision, nuance, and balance finding lanes in and outside of the pocket allow him to elevate his offense. This nimbleness is all the more paramount since his stature can result in periodic obstructed vision and misfires from muddy pockets. Captain Obvious wanted to chime in to say that it’s a lot easier for QBs to hit their targets when they can see them.
While sometimes he chooses to play it safe with his offerings in terms of depth, Leary can find completions all over the field. Despite his unassuming size, he had multiple attempts in his sample top 50 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. However, a torn pectoral had an obvious effect on his deep accuracy last year. As a somewhat prudent shot-taker, his potency falls off a cliff if he cannot connect on dingers. He can nickel-and-dime with the best of them, but the jury is still out on if he can regain previous efficiency without recapturing moderate production deep. Leary might not press in terms of distance, but he’s not one to shy away from targeting tight windows when hunting for completions. Perhaps this tendency discontinues with speedy receivers and tweaked operation. But if his tunnel vision sticks, the BBN should have some solace that his performance in this context has been noteworthy.
Largest Strength: Knifing Accuracy
The Stats: color-coded to reflect percentile standing within impact class (green = great, white = mid, red = bad)
Spray:
Overall:
Again, if we were to only analyze Leary based on his returns from last year, he’d be a pretty hard sell. He tracked to have a bottom10 ANY/A, Explosive Pass%, and Depth Adjusted Accuracy among our Impact QBs. Oof. But even with drops damaging his profile, he projects to be one of the nation’s most precise passers. He just has a knack for throwing catchable attempts. All of his placement metrics on his composite topped the group’s standards. In fact, no other Impact Power5-er logged a preferable Accuracy%. Targeting short lowered his degree of difficulty as well as his explosiveness. That said, there’s underlying optimism his bottomline will bolster he sees less butterfingers in the Bluegrass thanks to his sturdy process.
Outside of drops, he didn’t experience too many volatile elements that drastically skewed his stats. His Pressure Rate was one of the better one’s in the class, he only used a moderate amount of deception tactics, and he overly preferred to operate inside the pocket. He consistently has peppered opponents sideline to sideline underneath and fancied working outside the numbers downfield. While there were some nice midrange completions near the hashes, he was one of the 10-most likely Impact QBs to target outside the numbers excluding outlets. And though he completed a backshoulder or two, Leary is quite good putting air under the ball and limiting ducks.
Downfield:
Plagued by a torn pectoral, Leary’s downturn throwing deep was perhaps his greatest backstep last year. His 2022 figures were all below the group standard including his bottom5 22.7% Completion%. Last year, he was practically averaged two uncatchables per every on-target pass beyond 20 yards downfield. Obviously, that’s a major red flag. However, since he was rather sound throwing deep in 2021, his composite managed to be palatable, if not forgettable. About a third of his such attempts were equally caught, accurate, or biffed. Off-season reviews indicate he’s back to his old self. And, Kentucky is optimistic Leary will TCOB (take care of business) in this area of the field. Even a middling performance might be satisfactory enough. But if he replicates last year’s rotten offerings, folks at the next level might lose interest.
But while his deep figures have fluctuated, Leary has been a standup midrange thrower each of the last two years. His composite 56.3% such Accuracy% projects to be a top5 Impact figure. However, for the ‘what have you done for me lately’ crowd, seeing his placement dip 8 points and his Interceptable% double YOY isn’t too reassuring. In turn, his composite downfield profile leans more towards fine than fantastic.
Pressured:
Leary’s spring-action release and nifty feet are useful traits to negate pressure. Of course during his breakout season, he averaged 2 erased sacks per contest against his hardest opponents and topped key stat standards across the board. But duressed dropbacks are volatile, full of variables, and very hard to predict. Subsequently, Leary saw his play versus pressure crumble last fall. Already susceptible to drops and restricted throwing lanes, his body language palpably deteriorated and he appeared to be more stressed out than in 2021. His 1.2 ANY/A in this context would’ve been inside the group’s bottom3 and among his new conference’s worst figures. For what it’s worth, the guy Leary is replacing rocked an SEC-high 6.9 clip.
Even though his backers expect to see his accuracy recalibrate, the fact Leary placed below the group average back-to-back years in pressured Interceptable% and Pressure:Sack Ratio articulates underlying flaws in this context. His feet allow him to move smoothly and carefully. Still, he lacks the strength of some of his peers and can be bothered into errancy. If it’s not a sound base, it's a muddy pocket preventing a follow-through, rushing a read, or nudging him off his mark. Again, Will Levis is 6 '4, 229 compared to the 6’1, 215 Leary.
Outside the Pocket:
The moderately-sized Leary doesn’t appear to be much of a standout when breaking rank. His per attempt accuracy stays passable. However, these are the spots where he traditionally has been his most reckless. Either because he cannot see the field as well, misjudges windows, or has his mechanics altered, his metrics outside the pocket were decidedly subpar compared to his Impact peers. His such INTA% more than doubled his EXP%; and over of third of these throws were deemed uncatchable. In recent years, UK has visibly featured play action bootlegs that require its passer to be a dependable distributor on the move. But with Leary’s previous shortcomings, his new staff might deviate course and prefer to keep him guarded within the pocket.
Contested/Tight Window:
Roughly a quarter of Leary’s sample’s attempts were contested (92 by volume). Thanks to his polished precision, Leary hints to be a commendable passer when targeting tight windows; even though there were a few snaps with mistimed outbreakers or lollipops. No Impacter topped his 55.1% such Accuracy% from this past season and his composite score still would’ve cracked the top3. With plenty of on-target tries, his result metrics bested the group average across the board even though about a fifth of these attempts were dropped. Only two of his peers trumped his composite 6.8 ANY/A and only three outdid his 14.1% Explosive Pass%. Folks at the next level ought to love Leary’s ability to optimize these completions without being too reliant on their outcomes in order to power drives.
Dropback:
Leary wasn’t a strong dropback passer last fall, which might explain why the offensive braintrust decided to spoonfeed him more screens and RPOs compared to the previous season (29% vs 21%). His 2022 Interceptable% topped his Explosive Pass%. Plus, both his Depth Adjusted Accuracy and ANY/A projected to be bottom4 Impact figures. Patterns working outside were particularly putrid. Floods, All Verts, and Smash Variations – NC State’s three most-targeted dropback concepts – pooled together for a despicable 21% Success Rate. Yikes. Even with relatively admirable down-to-down accuracy and catchability, that’s undeniably alarming.
However, because of Leary’s ability to typically throw on-target, sunny-siders believe his firm process will eventually lead to worthwhile results. Furthermore, he tends to have good eyes reading coverages, manipulating defenders, and creating lanes for himself – a dire necessity due to frame. Even with his history of unlucky drops nuking his numbers, his composite placement stats reflect one of the nation’s best pinpointers and a QB with serviceable vertical offerings.
Dropback Play Action:
Only about a tenth of Leary’s sample used play fakes. Deception tactics were not a major part of his operation. That said, he remained relatively accurate, risk averse, trusty on where to go with the ball. In fact, despite a sixth of these such throws being dropped, his Success Rate, First Down+TD Rate, and ANY/A all improved with this tactic. Yet, his Explosive Pass% slightly shrunk. Though play action can unlock a passer’s aggressive side and goad more verticality, Leary didn’t mind checking it down. His ADOT was over 5 yards under the group mean. For what it’s worth, Levis logged similar marks each of the last two years despite using true play action on over a quarter of his dropbacks.
“Floor" Passing:
Leary’s pass floor within structure is desirable. (Not to sound like a broken record) Yes, drops remained a problem and kept some of his result stats tepid compared to his peers. However, most of his composite stats in the context improved upon his already respectable resume overall. While increasing his ADOT by a few yards – and above the group mean – his raw Accuracy%, Uncatchable%, and ANY/A all enhanced. In fact, Leary was the only Power5-er in our study to be on-target on over 70% of these throws across above-average distance on a per-throw basis. Plus, his such Explosive Pass% basically doubled his Interceptable - implying he has the needed juice to capture big gainers without playing too carelessly. His deep placement curbed his weighted accuracy. But with more speedy targets, folks feel that will round into form.
Buzz is growing that Leary could be a dark horse draftee to sneak into early round conversation. A good decision-maker and on-point, he should excite the BBN for what he can bring to UK’s offense. Leary isn’t at burly or toosly as Levis; but he’s steadier with the ball, more trusty attacking tight windows, and has much better feet to navigate pockets and throwing lanes. Public Service Announcement: The last time Liam Coen called plays in Lexington, the Cats led the SEC in Offensive Success Rate – a sign of consistency and situational dominance. Leary’s strong down-to-down placement will play a huge role on if Kentucky can regain its past efficiency and potentially win double-digit games.