Impact QB Scouting Report: J.J. McCarthy, Michigan
Impact QB Scouting Report: J.J. McCarthy
Everyone loves quarterback talk. Since it's the most important position in the sport and a passer's ability often can be the difference between a victory or defeat, extra weight is put into analyzing these fellows. While most fans are content with volume stats like completions, yards, and touchdowns scored, the archaic metrics do little to tell the story of how a passer actually operates. What if a passer leaned more on screens or lived on the wild side by pressing downfield more often or benefited from being a game manager?
To cut through the clutter and actually provide some illuminating content this time of year, I decided to chart all 30 of On3’s top Impact QBs against their most challenging defensive opponents to get a better understanding of how the group functions. Instead of letting matchups against Poop State infiltrate our passers’ profiles, focusing on quality opponents present much firmer samples and strong indications of how this lot projects to the next level. Using ESPN’s SP+ Ratings and Expected Points Added/pass to set our benchmarks, each QB was charted against a 5-6 game sample. Some guys still had much easier slates compared to their peers. Nonetheless, this methodology is very helpful in exposing one’s true colors.
In this piece, Michigan's J.J. McCarthy will be the subject. We’ll breakout his profile overall, throwing downfield, working under pressure, surviving outside the pocket, targeting tight windows, operating the dropback game (along with play action), and their “passing floor'' based on how he performed in structure without adversity or schematic elements.
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| Height | Weight | Passing Yards | Pass TDs | INTs | ESPN QBR |
| 6'3 | 196 | 2,719 | 22 | 5 | 79.1 |
The Skinny:
A slender, yet dynamic QB who noticeably improved across his first year as a starter. An outstanding deep passer who's particularly potent off PA. Talented but will need to do more. Operated as a secondary-facet and was put in positions to succeed. Limited usage behind-the-chains
The Fat:
Michigan had a safe signal caller in Cade McNamara. But, McCarthy’s athleticism and natural playmaking skills were too much for Jim Harbaugh to keep him benched. And since JJM elevated his offense’s ceiling while still stabilizing its floor, he soon wrestled away the starting job and helped UM snatch its second-consecutive Big Ten title and playoff berth. His bang-for-buck arm and acceleration clearly propped the offense inside the top12 in EPA/pass nationally. On the surface, there’s not too much to criticize. McCarthy moves well, sees the field well, avoids mistakes well, and can drive the ball downfield well. Solid for a sophomore. But when digging further, there’s still much for the young gun to improve upon if he wants to be perceived as a high-end prospect.
Firstly, he needs to carry more weight within the scheme. Against his hardest opponents, less than 40% of his pass attempts came versus a suboptimal down and distance. Only 3 other Impact QBs can claim the same. Despite the guardrails, McCarthy’s 8.3 ANY/A and 4.8% Interceptable% when behind the chains both cracked the group’s top5, hinting he’s ready for a bigger role. Secondly, our guy’s midrange accuracy is resoundingly subpar, which must change. Though a standout deep, McCarthy was the group’s 5th-least precise passer on a per throw basis in those spots. Overall, nearly 23% of his sample was uncatchable. Quality downfield throwers matter. Thirdly, JJM could stand to improve his process outside the pocket. Yes, he avoided sacks nicely. Including all games, McCarthy placed inside college football’s top30 in both Pressure:Sack Ratio and Sack Rate. Plus, he tended to top group standards in terms of results. But it’s a bad look to see his Interceptable% best his Explosive Pass% outside the pocket vs the meat of his schedule. Additionally, his such Depth Adjusted Accuracy% tracked to be a bottom5 clip. While Blue will hope he can make strides, backsteps in play cannot be ruled out considering how prevalent JJM was working on the move.
At the end of the day, he needs to be more consistent. Despite benefiting from a low overall Drop Rate, McCarthy had pretty mediocre overall efficiency numbers in his sample. And when analyzing him on snaps with sound conditions, his case fails to get much better despite his knack for generating big gainers. Though he still has clear holes in his profile, the talent and supporting cast is there, however, for JJM to burst up draft boards next spring. Another year of starting experience should do him wonders.
Largest Strength: Deep Passing and Avoiding Negative Plays
Largest Area of Opportunity: Midrange and Outside the Pocket Accuracy
The Stats: color-coded to reflect percentile standing within impact class (green = great, white = mid, red = bad)
Spray:
Overall:
At 6’3, McCarthy has good height; but the 193-pounder is still slight. His nimble frame can pick up speed adequately, and his burst to open space is a clear selling point. Still, getting physically stronger would aid in his progression. Like a lot of inexperienced righties, he favored attacking his dominant side; particularly 0-10 yards downfield outside the hash. That area is often a “binky” spot for quick hitters and dump-offs; and when rolling out or extending, this relationship intensifies. Unfortunately, those targets (28% makeup) muted his numbers. (4.4 Y/A, 42% Success Rate, 1 TD 3 INT across 42 att). Strengthening his spray with more downfield throws absolutely should be considered based on these findings. Plus, his legs need a tad more zeal. JJM only had 3 more erasures than taken sacks against his hardest opponents, which consisted of the hardest slate of any Impacter in our sample. Scrambles and extensions only produced a pair of broken tackles. And while his arm talent is well above-average, a passer of his archetype becomes decidedly more dangerous with more vertical juice leading men towards paydirt and when throwing off-platform.
His “down and around” throwing motion is a little elongated, which can increase his time to throw. Plus, the main source of his power stems from his pectorals and upper back, which can take his legs out of throws. This becomes a more glaring issue when on the move or facing pressure. But thanks to this, McCarthy’s overall placement was more concerning than assuring. Sure, his deep dimes buoyed his weighted accuracy, which ranked inside the Impact’s top8. But both his raw Accuracy% and Uncatchable% were simply unsatisfactory. And despite the bombs buttering his bottomline, his 44.6% Success and 33.8% 1D+TD Rates were each unremarkable in this context.
Downfield:
McCarthy displayed immense value as a deep passer. His attempts can reach at least 50 yards downfield and he didn’t biff too many bombs. But more importantly, he maximized these targets behind a group-high 52% Completion%. And in terms of pure on-point accuracy, only three Impact QBs topped his 48% such clip. No doubt, he was lubed up by flea flickers and shot plays. In rhythm, however, he’s as capable as anyone in the collegiate ranks targeting beyond 20-yards downfield. Moving forward, folks would like to see more volume based on his proficiency – and to prove it wasn’t a fluke. But for what it’s worth among our Impact study, McCarthy logged an above-average Deep Pass Rate at 15.9%.
But as aforementioned, his midrange accuracy was one of his sample’s most visible flaws. Though on the lower-end of the group, about a fifth of his attempts targeted these spots, which is a significant chunk. These had a hand in souring a good amount of JJM’s supplementary stat breakouts – well, the attempts not towards the right side. Despite this defect, McCarthy still rocked a top10 Accuracy% on all throws over ten yards downfield.
Pressured:
The majority of McCarthy’s pressured attempts occurred on attempts where he stayed in the pocket. And when his base was firm, he was a much more effective passer than when he leaned into his mobility. Inside the pocket, JJM logged a 7.6 ANY/A and 49.1% Depth Adjusted Accuracy. Both clocked to be top3 figures among the group if recorded across all kinds of pressures. Doing the math, you can determine work needs to be done when he’s running for his life. That’s okay. It’s just another sign of his youth. Plus, shoring up his mechanics so his legs are more factors to generate more umph on balls could help his consistency fabulously.
Among our pool, JJM is far from a slouch all else considered. Sure, he played hot potato a little too much and botched a hefty amount of his throws. But he also was coached to not press or play too recklessly. He turned in an admirable 4.4% Interceptable% and key result stats above the group average.
Outside the Pocket:
Nearly 23% of McCarthy’s attempts occurred outside the pocket. And considering his deplorable placement metrics against the fact he only recorded a single throwaway against his hardest opponents, these plays remain to be a crucial area of opportunity. As nice as his legs are on designed runs and extending broken plays, his ceiling is lowered thanks to these misfires. As folks’ thirst for sack erasers, backyard ballers, and field-stretching Freds intensifies, play like JJM’s hardly will quench desired levels. To reiterate, he found terrific results mostly rolling right. And his 45.7% Success Rate outside the pocket was the best from an Impact Power5-er. But behind wobbly bases and wonky processes, stagnation could occur in this department within McCarthy’s game if he’s not careful.
Contested/Tight Window:
McCarthy wasn’t one show off his fastball or target tight windows often against his hardest opponents. Taking a step back and understanding that these games often had national importance, it’s easy to understand why he might have exhibited a more conservative approach when it came to testing contested coverage. Only five other Impact QBs had a lower Contested Makeup than his 19.1% in our study. When McCarthy put some extra mustard on throws and dared a tight window, however, he was forgettable – and downright self-destructive. Despite the group’s 2nd-lowest Drop Rate in these spots, he finished with poor figures in everything except two things: Explosive Pass% and Depth Adjusted Accuracy, which were no better than average. Moreover, almost a third of these tries were turnover-worthy, which is like ten siren emojis worth of concern. Arm hubris or coverage trickery, that must stop.
Dropback:
Though Michigan’s offense was full of eye candy, the Wolverines didn’t have much patience featuring screens or RPOs against the meat of their schedules. After all, Haubaugh’s M.O. is usually more old school. To that point, UM’s rushing game was its offensive identity. McCarthy was a complimentary facet. Again, he tended to operate ahead of the chains where schematic elements are more prone to manipulate secondaries. Still, his dropback profile targeted Sails, Shallows, and Sticks the most.
Pressure affected nearly a third of his dropbacks, which hurt McCarthy’s catchability. But despite his raw Accuracy% dipping 3 points here compared to overall, it and his Adjusted Completion% topped the average. Still, his biggest selling point remains to be his placement on downfield throws. McCarthy’s dropback 51.7% Depth Adjusted Accuracy made the Impact top5.
Dropback Play Action:
McCarthy only used an average amount of play action. But, there’s no denying he was a far more explosive passer when he came off a play fake. Already a passer known for procuring potent gains, a third of JJM’s such attempts gained at least 20 yards. Only Sam Hartman and Bo Nix boasted better ANY/A than his 17.5 figure. Both his Interceptable% and Uncatchable% remained relatively even with their counterparts in other contexts. Seeing that using this tactic didn’t jolt McCarthy’s arm hubris or YOLO tendencies, UM backers should be encouraged. While there are a few more variables involved on these snaps, McCarhty proves to be an asset that further sharpens UM’s overall attack when using play fakes and deception tactics.
“Floor” Passing:
In the bubble without adversity or guises, the points on McCarthy’s overall profile sharpen, for better or for worse. His potency shrunk and his interceptability puffed up behind consistently iffy accuracy. Again, his deep attempts rose-scented some of his offerings, but a fifth of these throws had no shot of being caught. Still, JJM was ultimately just a guy among his peers in terms of “floor” Success Rate, Explosive Pass%, and Depth Adjusted Accuracy%
UM and Co. should kick ass against most of its schedule. And, McCarthy’s athletic tools keep his and his offense’s ceiling pretty high. But his shaky passing floor could result in an unexpected loss or two if the Wolverines are a little unlucky or JJM cannot progress his performance in structure. Even with some regression, Michigan should still win its games. But if they want to reach their goals, accomplishing such will be all the more difficult if their star passer serves up a turnover-worthy pass on a tenth of his throws on a dismissible 6.3 ANY/A in this context.