The Skinny:

A volatile, combustible, explosive passer with tantalizing arm talent. Mercurial results. Still trying to find the right balance of risk/reward. Strong downfield thrower; but either by preference or coaching tends to feast short. Smooth mover and has flashed outside of the pocket. 

The Fat:

In terms of talent, Rattler is near the top of his position. Besides donning a mini Howitzer for a right arm and being a natural playmaker outside of structure, he’s mobile and offers a multi-faceted skill set; meaning he’s capable of running any required scheme. That’s good, because he’s about to have his third new offensive coordinator in as many seasons. Across 2023, he was consistently one of his conference’s most accurate throwers beyond ten yards downfield. In fact, he owns the SEC’s top raw Accuracy% ahead of this fall. But he’s yet to pass the Good, Ole-Fashioned Eye Test thanks to mistakes, hubris, and failing to overcome his surroundings. Our heart wants to truly believe he’ll put all the pieces together in stride. But our heads are understandably weary of his inconsistency. 

Though always a strong down-to-down placer, Rattler has a history of trying to do too much and play hero ball. There’s plenty of “no no no…YES!” plays on tape. At Oklahoma, he was one of the nation’s best outside the pocket and creating chances for himself. That diminished this past season, but Rattler still holds mad belief that his arm can make any throw and dot any target. Some of his highlights suggest he might not be too far out from that class. Still, he logs way too many turnover-worthy plays to outright ignore; especially if his late-season potency was just a mirage and he falls back into being a Checkdown Charlie. It’s fair to mention, accurate passes are easier to come by with less-challenging targets. Will Rogers was the only other SECer last year to record an ADOT under 8 yards. And despite slinging more “sure-things”, his efficiencies fell on the wrong side of the league’s mean. 

Assuming his new play caller will take off his handcuffs and let him rip it a little more, Rattler’s explosiveness should be among his conference’s best and bolster his bottomline. And even though he did tend to pepper people short with outlet screens and log interceptables, his passing floor solidified this past season to reflect his exciting potential. His in-structure body language has visibly improved. And, his mechanics are attractive. Still, it all boils down to being more consistent. Show more sparks when facing pressure or staring down a blizter. Stop pressing closed windows. Keep up the laudable per throw accuracy. If Rattler does that, don’t be surprised if he’s in the discussion to be drafted on Thursday. Still, his play last year against quality foes accentuates why his stock remains tepid. 

Largest Strength: Toosly Traits

Largest Area of Opportunity: Prudence, Turnover-Worthy Plays

The Stats: color-coded to reflect percentile standing within impact class (green = great, white = mid, red = bad)

Spray:

Overall: 

Despite possessing one of the group’s best upsides, Rattler totally lost his fangs against quality opponents. Versus one of the hardest slates in our study, he buffered, he drifted, he pressed, he misfired. Since he is only average-sized, seeing the field can be a problem and he avoided the middle of the field. Despite ample scheme help to dictate his decisions and attempt to maximize his offerings, the Gamecock’s 5.2 ANY/A was 2nd-worst among the group. Furthermore, he was hindered by constant pressure that ensured he’d see considerable adversity. As a result, most of his metrics were resoundingly dismissible. He placed damn-well near the group’s floor in terms of Success and First Down+TD Rates. The only stat that laid out any hope was his 2nd-best 77.9% Adjusted Completion%. But again, the scheme’s guidance was more a catalyst per his bottom3 ADOT. His precision was pedestrian and his Interceptable% was the Impact study’s highest. To reiterate, Rattler will remain overly toothless unless he can optimize his offerings to be more bang-for-buck. 

Downfield:

Rattler’s downfield throwing ability is one of his selling points. Passes can arrive quickly, in-stride, and in spots few others can dot. But his marksmanship against the meat of his schedule was pretty sprayed. His catchability remained okay and tended to give his guys a stab at making plays. Still, his composite downfield Completion% was poor. Only 40% of his passes beyond ten yards downfield in our study were on-target, which put him in the group’s bottom8. A fifth of his such targets could’ve been picked off; only two of his peers were more prone to these boo boos. A man of his talents simply needs to do better. 

Opting to lean into dingers in this context, Rattler was the only other Impact QB to dedicate a higher target share to deep tries than midrange ones besides Caleb Williams. No one’s midrange makeup was smaller than our guy’s 12.5% clip. But despite his favoritism, Rattler’s intermediate passing projects to be the best the SEC has to offer. When including all games, his such 56.7% Accuracy, 58.3% Depth Adjusted Accuracy%, and 21.0% Uncatchable% all track to be tops amongst his conference-mates. Perhaps his usage increases. Still, these attempts against his hardest foes don’t foster much hope thanks to his knack for putting the ball into harm’s way. 

Pressured:

Rattler’s overall operation is unstable. So, analyzing his play becomes even more slippery when measuring his performance in spots like pressured dropbacks. Still, he was one of the most agitated QB’s in our study. An absurd 46% of his pure pass attempts faced a form of pressure. Only one other Impacter experienced a figure north of 37% on dropbacks. Suffice to say, these snaps affected his overall output considerably. And like his sour stats suggested earlier, Rattler crumbled under the gun. Often with his options running out and attempting to find somewhere to go, Rattler made plenty of throws that drew some expletives in disgust. With an Interceptable% greater than his Explosive Pass% and wayward passes scuffing up his placement metrics, his ANY/A barely finished in the black. Taking a step back to include all games, 8/12 INTs occurred on these throws (and half of those came on deep balls). Hoist the red flag!

For whatever reason, Rattler was more effective against pressure as a Sooner. Still, our guy has typically done a good job negating sacks. Sure with the amount of havoc he saw last year, he was bound to take some sacks. But his figure against his hardest opponents tracked above the group average, and his cumulative clip beat the conference’s mean. He can erase and extend. Plus, he’s gotten much better keeping his eyes downfield. These remain to be his bankable skills. And while risky throws kinda come as an add-on, his talent teases of future situational wins. Moreover, since these snaps are unpredictable year-in and year-out, who’s to say Rattler can’t regain his old form or even take it up a level?

Outside the Pocket:

Already a passer who liked drifting or was given chances on the move, Rattler’s pressure problem bled over into more attempts outside the pocket. Nearly a quarter of his sample’s throws met these conditions. Naturally, the righty was flushed to his dominant side where 70% of his playable passes were directed. Including all games, about a quarter of these throws resulted in throwaways – only three of his conference-mates claimed a higher rate. These, in turn, sliced his sample’s output and ballooned his Uncatchable%. But even with those biffs, his placement stats were somewhat respectable. Additionally, his INTA% was doubled-up by his EXP%. Ultimately, he was a pretty middling option on a per attempt basis. Though his metrics are rather meek, there’s still some evidence Rattler has plenty of juice to make plays outside of structure and further raise his ceiling. 

Contested/Tight Windows:

Without sugarcoating it, this was a stained section on Ratter’s profile. It illustrates his try-too-hardness, arm hubris, wincey decision-making, and why some folks will never hop aboard his bandwagon. Not to add more gas, but this tendency to toss turnover-worty plays paired with an shortsighted pass spray just isn’t a cost-effective way to spend one’s targets. The volume of screens and RPOs deflated his overall number of tries that tested tight windows. And looking at his repulsive INTA%, you can understand why Marcus Sattersfield wanted to limit such throws. No one can get by with every third contested throw potentially resulting in a takeaway. On the year, it was still ludicrously high at 28%. 

But if you can overlook his most inexcusable throws, the rest of Rattler’s contested stats show some underlying value. After all, he believes he can complete them for a reason. On the group’s 3rd-highest ADOT, our heatseeker captured the 2nd-best Explosive Pass% and Uncatchable%. Additionally, both his raw and weighted accuracy metrics track above the standard. The meh down-to-down results and his abysmal proclivity serving lollipops to opponents are very real concerns. But the occasional wow play keeps us coming back and holding out hope Rattler will figure it out. One way or another, he’ll continue to be a difference-maker attacking tight windows. 

Dropback:

Again, pressure maligned Rattler’s metrics; particularly on pure dropbacks. And like his stinky overall results, the Gamecock struggled to look good against the meat of his schedule. A below-average Drop Rate certainly was a factor, but no other Impact QB turned in a worse Success Rate. Plus, he was 1/3 in our study to produce a First Down+TD Rate under 30%. Without gimmes and outlets to pad his completions, less than half of his dropback attempts were on-target and over an eighth were turnover-worthy. Rattler did snag explosives, displayed more verticality, and helped curb takedowns, but he decidedly failed to elevate his offense on these tries. Even with the adversity, more should be expected out of him. 

Dropback Play Action:

Used to operating with scheme elements, Rattler was fine off play fakes. His placement remained unrefined, but he managed to maximize the tactic to a respectable Explosive Pass% compared to his peers. Drops plagued him. By assuming those are shored up, Rattler still is a fairly threatening passer in this context. His arm doesn’t need much extra space to capitalize on designs and these often can be one-read patterns to ease his thinking. While cracking the group’s top10 in Adjusted Completion%, half of these passes found success. Nothing sexy but it’s another tool in his box that offers some worth. 

“Floor” Passing:

When not pestered by pressures, propped up by screens/RPOs, or roaming outside the pocket, Rattler’s passing floor has bright spots. Though certainly not used in this manner as much as his peers, it's assuring to notice over two-thirds of these throws were on-target, only an eighth were uncatchable, and his Depth Adjusted Accuracy was one of the 10-best in our study. Butterfingers did botch his down-to-down results as Rattler’s Success and First Down+TD Rate were candidly mid. 

While South Carolina’s plan aimed to handcuff him and scrub out recklessness, Rattler has an innate desire to be a playmaker. As seen, his gung-ho heaves can be a double-edge sword. And, the YOLO ball lifestyle has clear drawbacks. Still with clean conditions with clear lanes, the unafraid Rattler hunted for big plays. No Impact QB was more prone to explosives or interceptables than Rattler in this context. Interestingly enough as a guy who struggles to balance his aggression with prudence, his respective rates equaled one another. Curbing the backbreaking decisions while still allowing him free reign to attempt big time throws has proven to be quite the quandary for Rattler’s coaches. Few challenge his toolsy traits and how they might translate to the next level; but not too many professional passers that log blunderful turnovers survive. 

Cumulative (all attempts) One-Sheet

SEC Impact QB #2: Devin Leary, Kentucky:

Height	Weight	Passing Yards	Pass TDs	INTs	ESPN QBR
6'1	215	1,265	11	4	55.7

The Skinny:

A slight passer with a snappy delivery. Excellent down-to-down accuracy. Light on his feet with decent escapability skills. Can matriculate but has good vertical juice and tends to lead men downfield. Subpar frame results in occasional biffs; especially when vision is obstructed.

The Fat: 

In case you haven’t heard, Leary’s stock took a hit last year. After posting one of the most efficient marks in college football in 2021, his 2022 campaign once inflated by high hopes quickly crashed and burned thanks to injury and regressed play. But while his results and process soured, making any definitive conclusions from that hobbled performance would be foolish; as would blindly assuming he’ll find his old form in a brand new environment. Odds are, his play will likely fall somewhere in the middle of those two extremes. So to conservatively gauge what he’ll bring to the table for 2023, Leary’s Impact sample includes five of his hardest foes from each of the last two seasons. 

In addition to backbreaking double-digit Drop Rates that decimated his bottomline, his key traits carried over year-to-year. Leary’s main selling point is his golden accuracy. Though some of his operation was fueled by screens and RPOs, he proved to be a confident and consistent pre-snap processor and snappy post-snap distributor no matter the design. There’s little wasted motion in his tight, compact rotation and passes arrive quickly. Plus, his placement tends to be away from defenders. But while his arm gets the focus, Leary has some of the best feet in the class. He might not be a burner or buster. But his vision, nuance, and balance finding lanes in and outside of the pocket allow him to elevate his offense. This nimbleness is all the more paramount since his stature can result in periodic obstructed vision and misfires from muddy pockets. Captain Obvious wanted to chime in to say that it’s a lot easier for QBs to hit their targets when they can see them. 

While sometimes he chooses to play it safe with his offerings in terms of depth, Leary can find completions all over the field. Despite his unassuming size, he had multiple attempts in his sample top 50 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. However, a torn pectoral had an obvious effect on his deep accuracy last year. As a somewhat prudent shot-taker, his potency falls off a cliff if he cannot connect on dingers. He can nickel-and-dime with the best of them, but the jury is still out on if he can regain previous efficiency without recapturing moderate production deep. Leary might not press in terms of distance, but he’s not one to shy away from targeting tight windows when hunting for completions. Perhaps this tendency discontinues with speedy receivers and tweaked operation. But if his tunnel vision sticks, the BBN should have some solace that his performance in this context has been noteworthy.

Slate	Top35 SP+ DEFs	AVR SP+ DEF	Top35 EPA/pass DEFs	AVR EPA/pass DEF
2021: Miss St, Clemson, Miami, Louisville, and FSU 2022: ECU, Texas Tech, UConn, Clemson, and FSU	5	20.8	3	0.0143 (26th)

Largest Strength: Knifing Accuracy  

Largest Area of Opportunity: Playmaking Outside of Structure, Potency

The Stats: color-coded to reflect percentile standing within impact class (green = great, white = mid, red = bad)

Spray:

Overall:

Again, if we were to only analyze Leary based on his returns from last year, he’d be a pretty hard sell. He tracked to have a bottom10 ANY/A, Explosive Pass%, and Depth Adjusted Accuracy among our Impact QBs. Oof. But even with drops damaging his profile, he projects to be one of the nation’s most precise passers. He just has a knack for throwing catchable attempts. All of his placement metrics on his composite topped the group’s standards. In fact, no other Impact Power5-er logged a preferable Accuracy%. Targeting short lowered his degree of difficulty as well as his explosiveness. That said, there’s underlying optimism his bottomline will bolster he sees less butterfingers in the Bluegrass thanks to his sturdy process. 

Outside of drops, he didn’t experience too many volatile elements that drastically skewed his stats. His Pressure Rate was one of the better one’s in the class, he only used a moderate amount of deception tactics, and he overly preferred to operate inside the pocket. He consistently has peppered opponents sideline to sideline underneath and fancied working outside the numbers downfield. While there were some nice midrange completions near the hashes, he was one of the 10-most likely Impact QBs to target outside the numbers excluding outlets. And though he completed a backshoulder or two, Leary is quite good putting air under the ball and limiting ducks. 

Downfield:

Plagued by a torn pectoral, Leary’s downturn throwing deep was perhaps his greatest backstep last year. His 2022 figures were all below the group standard including his bottom5 22.7% Completion%. Last year, he was practically averaged two uncatchables per every on-target pass beyond 20 yards downfield. Obviously, that’s a major red flag. However, since he was rather sound throwing deep in 2021, his composite managed to be palatable, if not forgettable. About a third of his such attempts were equally caught, accurate, or biffed. Off-season reviews indicate he’s back to his old self. And, Kentucky is optimistic Leary will TCOB (take care of business) in this area of the field. Even a middling performance might be satisfactory enough. But if he replicates last year’s rotten offerings, folks at the next level might lose interest. 

But while his deep figures have fluctuated, Leary has been a standup midrange thrower each of the last two years. His composite 56.3% such Accuracy% projects to be a top5 Impact figure. However, for the ‘what have you done for me lately’ crowd, seeing his placement dip 8 points and his Interceptable% double YOY isn’t too reassuring. In turn, his composite downfield profile leans more towards fine than fantastic. 

Pressured:

Leary’s spring-action release and nifty feet are useful traits to negate pressure. Of course during his breakout season, he averaged 2 erased sacks per contest against his hardest opponents and topped key stat standards across the board. But duressed dropbacks are volatile, full of variables, and very hard to predict. Subsequently, Leary saw his play versus pressure crumble last fall. Already susceptible to drops and restricted throwing lanes, his body language palpably deteriorated and he appeared to be more stressed out than in 2021. His 1.2 ANY/A in this context would’ve been inside the group’s bottom3 and among his new conference’s worst figures. For what it’s worth, the guy Leary is replacing rocked an SEC-high 6.9 clip. 

Even though his backers expect to see his accuracy recalibrate, the fact Leary placed below the group average back-to-back years in pressured Interceptable% and Pressure:Sack Ratio articulates underlying flaws in this context. His feet allow him to move smoothly and carefully. Still, he lacks the strength of some of his peers and can be bothered into errancy. If it’s not a sound base, it's a muddy pocket preventing a follow-through, rushing a read, or nudging him off his mark. Again, Will Levis is 6 '4, 229 compared to the 6’1, 215 Leary. 

Outside the Pocket:

The moderately-sized Leary doesn’t appear to be much of a standout when breaking rank. His per attempt accuracy stays passable. However, these are the spots where he traditionally has been his most reckless. Either because he cannot see the field as well, misjudges windows, or has his mechanics altered, his metrics outside the pocket were decidedly subpar compared to his Impact peers. His such INTA% more than doubled his EXP%; and over of third of these throws were deemed uncatchable. In recent years, UK has visibly featured play action bootlegs that require its passer to be a dependable distributor on the move. But with Leary’s previous shortcomings, his new staff might deviate course and prefer to keep him guarded within the pocket. 

Contested/Tight Window:

Roughly a quarter of Leary’s sample’s attempts were contested (92 by volume). Thanks to his polished precision, Leary hints to be a commendable passer when targeting tight windows; even though there were a few snaps with mistimed outbreakers or lollipops. No Impacter topped his 55.1% such Accuracy% from this past season and his composite score still would’ve cracked the top3. With plenty of on-target tries, his result metrics bested the group average across the board even though about a fifth of these attempts were dropped. Only two of his peers trumped his composite 6.8 ANY/A and only three outdid his 14.1% Explosive Pass%. Folks at the next level ought to love Leary’s ability to optimize these completions without being too reliant on their outcomes in order to power drives.  

Dropback:

Leary wasn’t a strong dropback passer last fall, which might explain why the offensive braintrust decided to spoonfeed him more screens and RPOs compared to the previous season (29% vs 21%). His 2022 Interceptable% topped his Explosive Pass%. Plus, both his Depth Adjusted Accuracy and ANY/A projected to be bottom4 Impact figures. Patterns working outside were particularly putrid. Floods, All Verts, and Smash Variations – NC State’s three most-targeted dropback concepts – pooled together for a despicable 21% Success Rate. Yikes. Even with relatively admirable down-to-down accuracy and catchability, that’s undeniably alarming. 

However, because of Leary’s ability to typically throw on-target, sunny-siders believe his firm process will eventually lead to worthwhile results. Furthermore, he tends to have good eyes reading coverages, manipulating defenders, and creating lanes for himself – a dire necessity due to frame. Even with his history of unlucky drops nuking his numbers, his composite placement stats reflect one of the nation’s best pinpointers and a QB with serviceable vertical offerings. 

Dropback Play Action:

Only about a tenth of Leary’s sample used play fakes. Deception tactics were not a major part of his operation. That said, he remained relatively accurate, risk averse, trusty on where to go with the ball. In fact, despite a sixth of these such throws being dropped, his Success Rate, First Down+TD Rate, and ANY/A all improved with this tactic. Yet, his Explosive Pass% slightly shrunk. Though play action can unlock a passer’s aggressive side and goad more verticality, Leary didn’t mind checking it down. His ADOT was over 5 yards under the group mean. For what it’s worth, Levis logged similar marks each of the last two years despite using true play action on over a quarter of his dropbacks.   

“Floor" Passing:

Leary’s pass floor within structure is desirable. (Not to sound like a broken record) Yes, drops remained a problem and kept some of his result stats tepid compared to his peers. However, most of his composite stats in the context improved upon his already respectable resume overall. While increasing his ADOT by a few yards – and above the group mean – his raw Accuracy%, Uncatchable%, and ANY/A all enhanced. In fact, Leary was the only Power5-er in our study to be on-target on over 70% of these throws across above-average distance on a per-throw basis. Plus, his such Explosive Pass% basically doubled his Interceptable - implying he has the needed juice to capture big gainers without playing too carelessly. His deep placement curbed his weighted accuracy. But with more speedy targets, folks feel that will round into form. 

Buzz is growing that Leary could be a dark horse draftee to sneak into early round conversation. A good decision-maker and on-point, he should excite the BBN for what he can bring to UK’s offense. Leary isn’t at burly or toosly as Levis; but he’s steadier with the ball, more trusty attacking tight windows, and has much better feet to navigate pockets and throwing lanes. Public Service Announcement: The last time Liam Coen called plays in Lexington, the Cats led the SEC in Offensive Success Rate – a sign of consistency and situational dominance. Leary’s strong down-to-down placement will play a huge role on if Kentucky can regain its past efficiency and potentially win double-digit games. 

Cumulative One-Sheet

SEC Impact QB #1: Joe Milton, Tennessee:

Height	Weight	Passing Yards	Pass TDs	INTs	ESPN QBR
6'5	245	971	10	0	83.8

The Skinny:

A big, mighty, vertical-minded QB with demigod arm strength. One of the position's highest ceilings that is further elevated by his aggressive scheme. Displays inconsistent mechanics which mutes his accuracy, consistency and potency. Fantastic flashes but still a work in progress

The Fat:

Milton is one of the most intriguing players ahead of this fall. Despite previous errancy and untrustworthy quarterbacking, his undeniable talents continue to tantalize on ‘what could be”. His recent showings indicate things might have finally clicked for him. Still, some of his past bugaboos pop up to dent his bottomline and allow dissenters to object to his apparent metamorphosis. But one thing is unequivocal, Tennessee’s offense will facilitate his role, reads, and operation for both him to be his best self and the Vols’ upward trajectory to continue. Like his predecessor, Milton will be fed ample outlet screens and dump offs to space short or behind the line of scrimmage with an abundance of vertical shots. While there is value in the midrange game, Josh Heupel prefers either taking the sure thing or going all in with little in-between. 

This exercise is dealing with a truncated sample compared to other Impact QBs, but Milton’s numbers echo his incredible upside. His 13.6 ANY/A was practically 3 yards better than anyone else in the SEC. FYI, the next man in line was Hendon Hooker. And signs of further optimism are rooted in the fact Milton was the only passer to place inside both conference’s top3 in Uncatchable% and First Down+TD Rate (min 50 att). Though less sound with his ball placement than his predecessor, no target is too far and any busted play – of which the Vols logs plenty – can go for six. In case you didn’t know, even with the reduced games, Milton totaled more completions with a depth of target over 45 yards downfield (6) than anyone else in our study. 

Tennessee has one helluva trebuchet on its hands. But there are still noticeable kinks destabilizing his down-to-down mechanics both when stationary and on the move. Naturally with a more aggressive M.O. that yearns to get his awesome arm on tape, his degree of difficulty is upped. But Milton’s major driver for his numerous biffs and clear downfield choke jobs on his profile is his wobbly operation. He’ll string together a few plays straight with a tight, compact, confident delivery. Then, he will regress with hip chucks off his back foot. When a passer knows he can make off-platform throws or wow with unreal highlights, sometimes he’ll simply put less weight into a consistent operation. His surroundings and next-level traits should see Tennessee continue to challenge within the conference and keep his floor high. But if Milton truly wants to become a household name, he must refine his ailing inconsistencies with his mechanics. 

Slate	Top35 SP+ DEFs	AVR SP+ DEF	Top35 EPA/pass DEFs	AVR EPA/pass DEF
All passes from 2022	1	25.5	2	-0.040 (16th)

Largest Strength: Rocket Launcher Arm Strength 

Largest Area of Opportunity: Overall Accuracy and Improved Process Metrics

The Stats: color-coded to reflect percentile standing within impact class (green = great, white = mid, red = bad)

Spray:

Overall:

With only 82 attempts and a full fledged start against lowly Vanderbilt, Milton’s figures carry much less weight than most of our Impacters. Even if just a flimsy snapshot, however, his stats can illustrate how far he’s come and how far he still has to go. Blessed with a divine scheme and angelic arm talent, Milton blew his opponents away. Both his Y/A and ANY/A comfortably sat in the double-digits, a threshold none of his peers came close to achieving. His verticality and lofty ADOT promoted high returns of big gainers as a sixth of his attempts generated at least 20 yards. An absurd 67.1% of his attempts occurred on either a screen, RPO, or dropback play action. This should hammer home how much of his results were simply executing the greater scheme at work as well as how extra mechanism might be needed to goad his greatness. 

But all in all, there should be little worry that Milton will fizzle. His accuracy metrics are still pretty sour, but his catchability has improved tremendously thanks to his proactive play caller. And with more tries in play, nearly half of his throws last year found situational success, and his 40.2% First Down+TD Rate would’ve made the Impact top5. If his receivers drop an eighth of his throws again, his bottomline will take a hit; especially if his overall accuracy remains drunk. But he’ll overly be placed in spots to kick ass and do what he does well: dial up dingers and capture key completions. 

Downfield:

The Mighty Righty completed half of his downfield throws last year; and his Accuracy% tracked to be near the Impact top10. While QBs in our sample averaged a depth of target of 20.7, Milton’s figure was a robust 33.7, signifying his affinity for deep attempts. Of his 38 tries beyond ten yards downfield, only 10 were midrange targets. His astronomical 34.1% Deep Pass Rate was over a dozen points higher than the next Impact QB. Now, sustaining that clip across a season would be unheard of. But, it shows you Milton doesn’t need much convincing to chuck it deep. And with noticeably improved consistency on his placement, he projects to be all the more dangerous with increased reps. 

Pressured:

Milton only had 16 pressured attempts last year. So these numbers are even more unstable for our analysis. But if you care, Milton’s toolys traits propelled him to dynamic results. Behind relatively sound accuracy figures, a usual flaw in his game, he captured the group’s would-be best Y/A, ANY/A, Success Rate, and Explosive Pass%. Again, take these with a grain of salt. But only one other Impact QB posted a preferable Uncatchable%. His stony stature appears to be more composed and unbothered by blitzing bugs. And if Milton can remain a cool customer under the gun, his stock will keep on rising.  

Outside the Pocket:

Milton is a big guy. He isn’t designed to win too many footraces. He only logged a pair of scrambles versus 4 taken sacks last year. His value outside the pocket comes from extending broken plays with his plowing lower body and being able to hit guys on scramble adjustments downfield. He saw limited usage in this context last year. But one of his most impressive completions – an effortless 50-yard fling to Squirrel White in the waning moments of the SC game – came on the move to the left. You think everyone can do that?

Contested/Tight Window: 

Due to bountiful scheme elements and speedy receivers, Milton didn’t have to press tight windows too much last season. But when he did, his arm hubris of believing he can complete any pass emerged. Though he was relatively accurate in these spots, he was more prone to log a pass breakup than an on-target attempt. Plus, over a quarter were turnover-worthy. But while there were some pretty precarious throws attacking tight windows, Milton ended the year with 3 TDs and 0 INTs, which further hypes up his capacity for winning in the margins despite an untrusty process. 

Dropback:

Milton’s wonderful results were maintained when excluding screens and RPOs. And with fewer rinky dink throws included, his verticality ballooned. Every one of his result metrics outside of his 53.7% Success Rate – which tracked to be a top5 Impact figure – would’ve been a group-high. Though half of these throws were inaccurate and over a fifth were straight-up uncatchable, over a quarter resulted in a gain of at least 20 yards. But along with the dipped accuracy, Milton was more prone to throwing interceptables. And, his such 11.1% clip was well into the dangerzone. There’s evidence his bottomline will buckle under the weight of prolonged inaccuracy. Robby Ashford was the only other SECer with a sub-51% Accuracy% and +10% INTA on true dropbacks last year. Not the company you’d like to keep. So while the returns he logged are entirely commendable, that wonky of a process is pungent and cannot be dismissed even if the video game numbers continue. 

Dropback Play Action:

Milton’s dominating dropback numbers were noticeably boosted by play fakes. Exactly half of his attempts featured the tactic. In fact by volume, play action was so prevalent within his game that he logged more such snaps than the majority of his peers in our study. So while some breakouts are flimsy, Milton’s incendiary passing off dropback play action appears to be firm. As you might suspect, no Impact QB came close to matching his down-to-down output according to his kingly 25.8 ANY/A. And while his placement when not using manipulative scheme elements is still very much TBD, Milton seems to display more accuracy when his man is clearly defined, open, or the backend has one less defender in coverage. 

“Floor” Passing:

Milton’s passing floor is high. Don’t kid yourself. Leaning into downfield throws accentuated by an aggressive, fast-paced offense only makes him all the more effective; especially considering the top-speeds of Tennessee’s targets. That said, his passing floor is unquestionably shaky due to the volume of tricks, guises, and tactics Heupel used to butter Milton’s bottomline. Less than a fifth of the Vols’ attempts met this criteria; only Jaxson Dart – another “Super Spread/Veer and Shoot” operator – claims a lower makeup among returning SECers. 

His placement stats didn’t lose too much ground, but Milton’s accuracy remained unsatisfactory and a clear red flag ahead of this fall. Moreover, an 18.2% Interceptable% within structure is just plain horrendous. Time will tell whether his stupendously high scheme element usage is more of a reflection of his shortcomings operating on straight dropbacks or his play caller’s fancy to optimize the greater game at work. Still on a per throw basis, few passers will have higher expected outcomes than Javelin Joe. 

Cumulative One-Sheet