5 Growing SEC Offensive Trends (And some rising concepts)

What’s up? What’s fresh? What’s new? We crave updates, developments, and progress. Football schemers, much like sharks, rarely stay still when hunting for breakthroughs. Teams are constantly tweaking, adjusting, and evolving everything from the macro to the micro while pursuing glory. 

As a guy who has personally charted every SEC offensive snap the last six seasons, I have my finger on the pulse of these sorts of things. It’s what I do. But instead of sharing EVERY little thing on what’s going on with conference tactics, I’ve whittled findings down into a digestible piece. Though you’re bound to still be full from the holiday’s feast, there’s still plenty of room for these nuggets.



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1. Total Motion is at an all-time high

In the grand quest to keep opponents guessing, stressed, and out-flanked, offensive play callers have been creative, cunning, and downright copycats implementing motions into schemes in recent years. Though a tactic that’s nothing new, SEC offenses are as busy pre-snap as they’ve ever been. Excluding RB flair motion, roughly 34% of snaps used a form in 2023. The conference’s figure was around 26% three seasons ago. And, this comes despite convex motions dwindling in usage in that span. For what it’s worth, SEC teams are much more likely to pass from pre-snap types (60%) than at-snaps (46%) the last half-decade. Hiding tendencies is part of the gambit. 

Though the basic types are still in the toolkit, coordinators have aggressively attempted to blend the operations. ‘Fast’ motions, in particular, have become a trendy tool to mask the traditional static pre-snap and kinetic at-snap motion setups. These designs benefit from a moving transformer that can gain a step in coverage or create a reflexive backend over-rotation like on at-snap types (jet, orbit, return, flair) while also scratching the itch of repositioning someone along the formation and out-numbering foes in space after feigning a different alignment like on pre-snap motions. 

Adding to their popularity, more varieties are visible than ever before. The subtypes go by various names (bumper = backfield bumps out into a flank/slot spot, cheat = quick sudden outward/inward movement switching receiver orientation, shoot/inertia = transformer leaves the box with positive inertia to block) but share a rising affinity. But like in the NFL, shoots are driving the fad at large. Over the last three years, such snaps have increased from 259 to 616. This past season, shoot usage trumped orbit and flair motions single-handedly (5.3% vs 4.4%). The subtype accounted for nearly 40% of all jet motions compared to around a quarter in 2021; an interesting nugget considering most motions are for skill players. Not only have shoot wrinkles evolved RPOs, but they also provide more teeth to standard run and pass concepts.

Jets, including all forms, have been featured on over 1,500 plays back-to-back falls within the SEC. And for the first time in recorded history, they’ve accounted for over an eighth of the conference’s offensive snaps. Pre-snap motion set a similar benchmark crossing the 18% threshold. With steady gains since 2020, a further increase in total motion usage in the Land Where It Just Means More appears to be a lock; especially considering the modus operandi of newcomer coordinators. 

2. The Big Blowup

Winning the explosive play battle is paramount in modern football. Nothing has been more correlated to victories the last half-decade than logging more big gainers than your opponents. And judging by the trends, the conference has certainly emphasized capturing explosives of late. In 2023, nearly 14% of snaps generated a 20+ yard pass or 10+ yard run – the highest mark on record. Moreover, overall potency has increased four years running. Though rush returns have been steady, passing has been the main chunk gain catalyst. Off three-straight seasons of increases, the league’s 10.7% Explosive Pass Rate was the first instance cracking the double-digits in StatCat’s charting. The previous-high of 9.6% set during the pandemic was totally bucked as a result. 

But, this rise hasn’t been a random happenstance. Along with the increased aggressiveness turning towards motion, play callers have greenlit their passers to try deep balls more often. The league’s cumulative Deep Pass Rate has mirrored the aforementioned increases since 2021. 2023’s 13.7% clip just missed setting a new conference record. Additionally, attempts behind the line have lost ground in that span. 

Focusing on snaps that generated at least 30 yards last year, 7 of the 8 concepts with a +4% play share were passes. Thanks to volume providing extra opportunities, Inside Zone Reads were the lone run look to crash the party. Taking a quick step back, Captain Obvious wanted me to remind you 20+ yard gains come much easier targeting downfield than close to the line of scrimmage. Not only is more bang-for-buck applied, but less is needed to go right offensively in order to find success. Perfectly blocking up a run, optimally timing up a screen pass, or expecting a ball carrier to do extensive damage after contact requires far more cohesion in comparison. 

And as hinted at the top, this methodology has led to a boost in where it matters most – the scoreboard. In short, increased verticality has greased aerial potency, which has padded points, despite the conference-wide Pass Rate plateauing. Like other elements, the league’s Scoring Drive Rate has puffed up four years in a row.  Just under 44% of drives this past season resulted in points, breaking the previous record of 41.4% that only stood for a year. It’s important to note the SEC’s points/game have hardly budged in this span. That said, of the 20 units that placed top5 within the league in Explosive Pass Rate since 2020, only four failed to finish in that range in scoring. 

3. Early Passing is Down

While conference play callers have displayed heightened tenacity in a number of areas, passing to start ball games is losing steam. After posting back-to-back seasons of a Pass Rate over 50%, the SEC has failed to crack that threshold each of the past two seasons on first half first down attempts. This dip in dropbacks coincides with the SEC’s cumulative clip also shrinking in recent years. Even with Mike Leach’s offense puffing up the league’s overall average, the largest year-over-year drop came from 2021-22, when he was still with us. 

When honing in on first quarter tries specifically, the script share held by runs is all the more mighty. Yes, last year’s Early Pass Rate is higher than the figure from 2019, but teams have turned to the ground 55% of the time the last two years to start a set of downs in opening stanzas – and the reasoning isn’t exactly clear. One argument centers around the rise of multi-safety defensive sets and two-deep shell usage that cannot fill runs as efficiently. Another follows the old school mentality of “establishing it” so the deception game can be fruitful later on; even if this notion has largely been disproven. But whatever the reason, it has nothing to do with results. 

Passes still largely hold sizable statical edges compared to runs in these spots. In first halves, the SEC hasn’t produced a +44% cumulative Rushing Success Rate since 2018. Yet, every year’s clip through the air has topped 48%. Granted, returns are not what they were from 2019-20, where the conference’s Passing Success Rate topped 50% with a +8.0 Y/A. But in 2023, the ground clip faced an 8-point and 2.6 yard deficit, respectively, in comparison. Dropping back still seems to be the way to go rather than handing off. 

4. 4-Man Surfaces

Working the numbers game is Football 101 and will always be a foundational factor for offenses. Thinking of fun, creative, and effective ways to line players up and stress opponents often wins the day. And in recent years, SEC play callers have started to do so more and more with 4-man surfaces. – i.e. formations with four eligible pass catchers on the same side of center. Ironically, quad and unbalanced formations haven’t really experienced a major jolt. The recent ingenuity has been centralized towards trips and trey sets with strongside backs. For years, the Air Raid has flooded coverages with 4-man surface patterns. Pairing Y-Stick with a playside vertical concept is common practice within the scheme. The same can be said with Mesh. But while a number of offenses still dabble with those staples, other wrinkles caught my eye last fall. 

First, a few schemes have baked swing screens into conventional concepts. Using 3-man looks like Spot, Triangle, Sail, and Stick – that all call for the back to attack the flat – the extra man, typically a tight end, acts as a personal protector blocker for the swing man with the other routes executed normally. Unlike other Pass-Screen Options that can be rinky-dinky designs, this variety is fully-fledged and can provide a dollop of verticality. Despite the well intentions, however, swing PSOs only put up a modest 5.0 Y/A. Even Georgia – one of the frontrunners with this tactic – came in with a clip under 7.0. 

Second, practical play fakes off tosses have been coupled with bankable downfield patterns. Though typical actions yearn to freeze linebackers over the middle, the deception shifts towards flank defenders and cornerbacks. The swing path aims to anchor them in the flat so that a juicer route opens up downfield. Double Post + Wheel (a favorite StatCat combination) and the All Verts variant “Seattle) are two of the most popular pairings due to their zealous nature. A fifth of those plays went for at least 20 yards in 2023. 

Third, Dash Sail looks are coming off their highest usage. More were called this past season than the previous two combined. On these delayed rollouts, the QB has the option of hitting his solo wideout on a vertical choice or working towards the strongside flood. Some teams call for the tight end to secure the edge and shore up protection; while others are more obliged sending an additional route downfield. The Double Post + Sail variety is especially sharp puncturing backends, even on reps where passers remain in the pocket. All in all, 4-man surface Sail designs produced a respectable 7.8 Y/A in the SEC last season. 

5. Total WR run opportunities are down, but Veers are up

Over the last half-decade, designed runs for receivers have consistently been some of the SEC’s most valuable looks. But year-over-year, coordinators have opted to fade those opportunities by 20%. Straight gives (jet handoffs, end arounds, and reverses) logged only 81 tries compared to 98 a season prior. Reverses were the big turd in the punch bowl, bringing down the family’s stats from a 9.6 Y/A and 32.3% Explosive Run Rate to 6.6 and 25.9%, respectively. Still, the output remained firm compared to most standard run concepts…and another receiver run wrinkle gaining steam. 

With at-snap motions being as popular as ever, providing functional eye candy is simply a smart move. While straight gives have no Plan B in case the edge is bumrushed or broken, read options have provided offenses with outs. Inverted Power Veer (aka Power Read) usage to ordinary pass catchers has ballooned three years in a row. In 2021, they made up less than a quarter of receiver run opportunities compared to 34.4% last season. These plays were overly flops in 2022 (4.7 Y/A, 12.9% EXR). But in the other two years, this concept produced an Explosive Run Rate over 25% on a sturdy 6.8 Y/A. Not quite as juicy as some straight gives, but still a clearly effective approach within the grander scheme of things. And based on the trajectory of conference offenses remaining active, their play share is anticipated to grow even further. 

6. Rush Concepts on the Rise

1. Duo Dive

   
   

This hard-nosed gap scheme has gained popularity due to its simplicity. With the rise of nickel sets and tite fronts, zone combo blocks haven’t been as effective with angles or execution compared to gap schemes. Plus, mashing tends to come easier versus said undermanned boxes. Over the last four seasons, usage has more than doubled from a 2.0% to 4.8% Play Share. 2023 was the first instance in StatCat’s charting that the look logged over 500 tries. Since 2020, roughly half of its reps have found success. Plus, the concept’s 4.8 Y/A last fall is an all-time high. 

2. Outside Zone Off-Tackle

   
   

Like the NFL, college offenses have adopted many principles found in the Shanahan offense – that yearns for run-pass balance, deception, and controlling the edge – namely featuring Off-Tackles. Missouri is certainly the conference’s standard bearer rocking this bread-and-butter concept, but this concept has gained notoriety across the entire SEC in recent years. Straight Outside Zone gives are coming off their highest year-over-year volume increase on record (127, 1.2% play share point increase). Despite the attention, however, Off-Tackles have failed to crack a 38% Success Rate or 5.1 Y/A each of the past two seasons. 

3. Dart Read (Tackle Wrap)

   
   

Another answer to wallop vulnerable fronts of late has been wrapping a backside tackle as a lead blocker; especially in tow with read options and RPOs. The conference’s super spread schemes are largely to thank for Dart Read’s recent rise. Tennessee and Ole Miss in particular have enjoyed spamming it; often from flex double stack sets to further stress sideline to sideline and set up a potential inside plunge. Over the last three years, usage within the conference has doubled outright. Consistency has waned in the process. But the look has averaged at least 7.0 yards per pop over the last two seasons. 

4. Bash Counter Options

   
   

Usually on read options, the RB hits the primary run hole with the edge reserved for QB keepers. On bash designs, those roles are swapped. Think of it as a BAsh – “back away” from the main orientation. The tweak isn’t otherworldly, but it’s unequivocally effective at freezing and taking advantage of read defenders' anticipating  traditional read option mesh points. Counters using bash actions have singularly seen more shine over the last three years. Both the normal cross-mesh and toss variety (commonly called from aforementioned 4-man surfaces) of Bash Counter Options combined for a 215% increase in reps in that span. Ole Miss has overly led the charge on this front. 

5. Counter Veer Options

   
   

This gem of a concept is basically a Power Veer (Power Read) with an additional backside puller. Unlike basic read options that call for the two potential rushers to attack opposite sides of center, Veers ask both to head the same way. Moreover, like on bash runs, the QB and RB will swap roles so that the former is the dive player and the latter hits the perimeter. Before this past fall, this family hardly showed up on SEC scripts. But after creating some buzz ala a 67% Success Rate and 6.2 Y/A, CVOs are worth illuminating. Of the 21 tries, 11 came off toss action and favored those aforementioned 4-man surfaces and tended to use jet motion eye candy. The select offenses that fancied this concept typically fired it off in the Red Zone. 

7. Pass Concepts on the Rise

1. Sail Variants

   
   

By volume, no concept – run or pass – has experienced a higher boost in reps over the last three years than Floods. And though Play Action Bootlegs are on an upswing, Sail patterns have been the primary driver. Like many successful ground concepts, these strongside floods are all about overwhelming opponents outside the numbers. Including all variants – traditional, swapped, outside, backfield, “Thumb/Skipper” – usage has increased about 86% in that time. Last year was the first time this decade the family logged more tries than its brother concept Cross. Despite the increase, results weren’t grand. Outside of Skipper targets, the look only produced a 39% Success Rate and 7.8 Y/A. That said, Sails finished among the conference’s best producers of field flipping gains (+30)

2. Blazer Post

This deep pass concept might supplant the tried and true Yankee Shot family in a few years if things stay course. The pattern is rooted off an outside receiver performing a middle search or “blaze out” (think of it as a deep-ass pivot/out route) depending on leverage and alignment. The goal is to sucker the safety’s eyes away from the middle of the field so that a post/bender can streak open downfield; and it usually comes off play action. After logging 17 reps in 2022, Blazers saw 33 last fall. No, that’s not a major total. But considering the look is coming off its highest volume and posting jaw-dropping stats ought to buoy future optimism in this design’s presence. Looking at it’s EDGE score of 15.2 should be impressive enough. But only two other concepts with at least 20 tries topped 7.0 – and Blazer Post practically doubled them up. 

3. Shallows, Drives, and Unders

Though vertical looks are providing gas to a lot of the conference’s numbers, drag route targets have beefed up the last few years. In fact, they’ve more than doubled. You largely can thank LSU’s Bayou Bombsquad for these increases. But while the Tigers found success on these looks of late, that wasn’t exactly the case for the rest of the SEC. Two of these concepts finished with Success Rates in the 30’s and the other finished with clips under 35% the two seasons prior. Though nice ways to stress foes underneath, the bang-for-buck is presently lacking value. 

8. Concepts on the Decline

1. Zone Reads

Both Inside and Outside Zone reads are still staples to plenty of schemes – the pair each finished inside the SEC’s top6 in reps in 2023 – but the concepts have just lost their luster. Each posted an EDGE score under 2.5 over the last half-decade. The average was 3.3 this past fall. And from 2019-2022, Outside Zone Reads were particularly sour.. Since these designs have been baked into schemes for decades now, defensive minds have had plenty of time to tinker and thwart these looks; either straight up or with RPO tags. And in the never-ending arms race, offenses have started to move on. Since 2021, the two have lost over 600 combined reps and over a sixth of their Play Share. Only 5/14 conference offenses had one of the two as top scripted play this past season. Again, Zone Reads still remain among the most visible looks in football. But signs of a gap scheme resurgence have been in the works for a while; so usage probably will continue to dwindle.  

2. Fox / Fake Screens

No pass concept that has logged at least 20 reps over the last three seasons has seen a larger percentage drop in Play Share than Fox. Without the classic Air Raid to keep usage high, it was bound to be a bear stock. This is a common wrinkle to uppercut opponents fixated on outlet screens behind the line of scrimmage. After feigning blocking a few steps, the receiver in question then snakes vertically outside the numbers, ideally behind the coverage if he’s a good actor. The typical patterns couple the concept with Switches or opposite inbreaking looks like Cross, Drive, or Dagger. 

3. Rubs, particularly Mesh

Like Fox, Mesh simply lost ground in this conference once Mike Leach was no longer on the sideline. Year-over-year, the Air Raid’s go-to play lost over 70 reps across the conference. Compared to 2021, Rub Variations’ Play Share in general has eroded by 30%. But while the Mesh concept itself is “declining”, the Kelly/Rail version has established a niche for many schemes as a late down bail out play. Only 7 concepts logged more than its 65 reps on 3rd down last year. 

4. Trail/Follow

When he was Alabama’s OC, Bill O’Brien was a big proponent of trail looks (technically bunch fly choice but whatever). Behind his lead, the group totaled 207 reps across the conference from 2021-22. But this past season, only 60 were targeted, completing a 40% dip in usage – a feat only accomplished by the aforementioned Fox concept. Already a group that struggled to deliver serviceable value, Trail/Follow patterns turned in a Success Rate under 40% with a bottom6 EDGE score among qualifying concepts in 2023. 

9. Random Notes

- RPO Usage is relatively steady

- Play Action Usage is relatively steady

- Midrange Pass Rate is relatively steady

- Without the traditional Air Raid, the league’s 10 personnel makeup was the lowest since 2019 (3.7%) 

- 12 personnel is still the 2nd-favorite grouping but 11 personnel gained snaps in 2023 (Play Share +13 percentage points YOY)

- The SEC’s Scramble Rate has crept up four-straight seasons; over 6% back-to-back years

- “Tight Bunch” Set Usage is declining despite Duo Dive’s rise

- Empty Set Usage is flat over the last few years and the returns aren’t rosy