2024 Pre-Season: Morty’s Mindblowers for each SEC Offense

SEC Media Days are finally among us. So you know what that means?!? We are officially in Talking Season. Gosh – where did the time go? Before we know it, real, live football will brighten our TV screens and enrich our lives. But since we still have to rely on fiery takes, tape evals, and coach talk to propel us through this time of year, I wanted to take on a fun prompt before joining the shouting match. 

The Adult Swim show Rick and Morty is obsessed with meta humor and framing devices. One notable anthology episode centers around the ability to wipe memories and experiences for the better good of one’s well-being… or the ego of one megalomaniac. But instead of erasing them forever, mad scientist Rick kept these “mind blowers” coded with three separate colors and stored in vials to revisit on-demand. 

Using that premise as our framing device for this piece, most would agree every SEC offense could stand to eradicate elements from their scheme for the better. Don’t carry your past into your present, or something like that. Playing off the episode, each team was given three “mind blowers”. Blue vials are things regarding a team’s overall scheme, red vials are aspects involving the run game, and purple vials concern the pass game. 

Alabama

#Erase the bad snaps

Not to speak for Tiders, but the center/QB hiking issues from last season largely altered the team’s destiny. Ranging from minor to mind-numbing, the miscues were a visible characteristic of Nick Saban’s final offense. And considering some passionate snap enthusiast posted all the team’s “off-target” exchanges on Youtube, cleaning that muck up is front-of-mind for many Alabama fans. Excluding those annoying snap infraction penalties, approximately 6% of the offense’s snaps suffered from a poorly located exchange. If these snaps were labeled as a standalone concept, their play share would’ve been the 4th-highest within last year’s scheme. Besides the clear backbreaking results, the spray hindered the development of Jalen Milroe. Already a passer trying to find his footing working within structure, constantly having to corral fastballs hurt his grip, eyes, and ability to execute progressions optimally. With former starting center Seth McClaughlin transferring to Ohio State, the errancy will presumably be eradicated. So, the problem might just fix itself with some new blood in the mix. 

#Stop Limiting Milroe’s Legs

Most QBs experience a statistical edge as designed ball carriers compared to RBs. Milroe was no exception last year. Though sacks and scrambles are another thing entirely, the potent playmaker was also the Tide's most efficient rusher in structure. He was fairly combustable. About an eighth of his straight runs lost yardage and 40% gained less than two yards. But at the same time, he rocked a team-high Success Rate (51.6%), Explosive Run Rate (19.4%), and First Down+TD Rate (37.1%). Amongst SEC returners with at least 50 attempts, all of those are top3-worthy ahead of 2024. All the while, Milroe failed to finish among the conference’s most-featured QB rushers. His 14.1% run share didn’t even crack the league’s top5. With a scheme change, new spread elements should open the door for a higher usage this fall. And considering his dynamism, Milroe can easily raise the floor of Kalen Deboer’s first offense by simply having the ball in his hands a little more. 

#Stop the overt pass-second approach

Whether the goal was to “establish it”, set the tone, or minimize the exposure to a new starting QB, Alabama was hardly shy turning to the ground to start a set of downs last year. In standard time, only 3 other conference offenses logged a lower such Pass Rate than the Tide’s 41.5% clip. But, that approach undercut the offense’s operation at large. Alabama’s Early Down Conversion Ratio fell into the league’s bottom5, and the team relied on 3rd Downs too often. Frankly, the Tide just had more teeth when they dropped back compared to rushing last year; particularly on first downs. While averaging over 2 yards more in comparison, pass plays yielded a Success Rate over 9 percentage points better than runs – and that was without the Tide having a go-to bankable concept on which to lean. Each of the last two years, Washington’s offense logged a top10 Pass Rate in college football, flirting with a figure near 60%. Though the Tide don’t totally have to becomepass-happy, taking to the skies more often should raise the Tide’s potential to come home with hardware. 

Arkansas

#Purge the Dan Enos Experience

After I asked Coach Pittman why he brought on Dan Enos to fill the void left by Kendall Briles at last year’s SEC Media Days, he met my skepticism with full-bore hubris in his buddy’s ability to call plays; especially capturing big gainers. From 2021-22, Arkansas led the conference in Explosive Play Rate and tallied 40 more by volume than the next offense in line. Not to wrap you up in a history lesson, but that was never Dan Enos’ vibe as Maryland’s OC in the same timeframe. Instead of hunting for splash plays, he sought consistent down-to-down execution. But Pittman – in no certain words – dismissed the doubt of diminished potency due to Enos’ pedigree as a play caller and ability to heighten his scheme’s results thanks to Arkansas talent. Well as most are aware, the Hogs finished dead last in Explosive Play Rate under his tutelage. Of course, sour blocking and skill player regression overly produced futile on-field showings; and Enos found himself unemployed before Halloween. Nothing from last year's scheme is worth rebooting. Burn the tape, turn the page, and fully embrace Bobby Petrino’s guidance. Though he himself hasn't been the most incendiary play caller in recent years, he did help TAMU capture a relatively average Explosive Play Rate in 2023 despite a lousy line and QB injuries, fueling optimism in tow with a new athletic backfield. 

#Forget the poor trench work

Last year’s awful blocking had to grind Pittman’s gears. As a former lifer coaching OL, seeing his unit go from the top of the league to below the SEC average in rush yards before contact had to sting. The team’s YBC dipped by over a yard year-over-year -- a serious figure that clearly hurt the Hogs’ normal operation. And as you’d expect from a unit that allowed quick defensive engagement, Arkansas rocked the 2nd-worst Negative Play Rate. Behind a bottom4 Pressure Rate, the Razorbacks surrendered 45 sacks, the league’s 2nd-most. Understandably, they finished inside the SEC’s bottom3 in overall Success Rate. Even with some juice added to the offense, the scheme will remain dry if last year’s poopy line play is replicated. And, Captain Obvious wanted to remind you that won't fare well for Pittman’s future in Fayetteville. In this analyst’s opinion, the Inverted Power Veer (Power Read) ought to be pretty visible. Petrino might spam it in an attempt to maximize Taylen Green and see if he can be his next Lamar Jackson. 

#Erase the interceptables, Taylen

Taylen Green has been mercurial throughout his college career. Despite flashing talent, consistency has yet to be a strength. In back-to-back Impact Studies, all of his ball placement metrics fell below the group average; including a worrisome Interceptable Pass Rate flirting with the double-digits. His shoddy play under pressure further dings his outlook. FYI, the dangerzone is typically around 7.5% in this respect. If his accuracy is capped and cannot be honed any further, limiting boo boos will be essential. By volume, only Kentucky recorded more turnovers than Arkansas among SEC offenses last year. Cleaning those up is a big area of opportunity for this reeling program. So, Green must do a better job playing keep-away from defenders. After all, turnover-worthy plays are a lot harder to come by if opponents never get any chances to touch the ball. But if that’s addressed and poor decisions are erased from his profile, Green has potential to be one of the SEC’s most impactful QBs. 

Auburn

#Stop being static

Hugh Freeze’s offense may play upbeat, but it isn’t particularly busy pre-snap relative to other SEC units. Still, roughly a sixth of the team’s snaps incorporated kinetic motions. And those snaps largely helped buoy Auburn’s bottomline. On designs with jet, return, shoot/escort, orbit, and quick cheat motions, the Tigers’ Yards/Attempt increased by a half-yard and their Success Rate ticked up 5 points compared to their cumulative figures. War Eagle’s Explosive Play Rate, Havoc Rate, and rush yard before contact average experienced positive gains as well. The 3-most scripted concepts (Outside Zone Reads, Inside Zone Reads, PA Bootlegs) combined for a 57% Success Rate. Good stuff! And on static pre-snap motion plays, their 3.8 YBC was tops in the conference. Though featuring these tactics can clash with Freeze’s rudimentary pedal to the medal style, updating his scheme with amplified motion should be explored based on 2023's returns. 

#Forget about the Counter woes

Though Freeze’s scheme isn’t the most complex, the simplicity is still capable of capturing fine results. There weren’t too many stains on Auburn’s zone-heavy run script. The team earned the SEC’s bronze medal in rush yard before contact average. Of the Tigers’ 6 most-featured concepts, 5 sported a Success Rate over 46%; 4 of them boasted a +6.0 Y/A. The variations of the main staples did them well and largely drove their production. But for this ground-first approach to level-up, it needs to develop a somewhat challenging changeup as Counter was the lone black mark. Last year, the gap-scheme run was the Tigers’ 2nd-favorite concept on 1st down in meaningful minutes (5th overall). But the misdirection misfired to the tune of a 38% Success Rate. Running that back is a clear no-go; since, presumably, this look will still remain involved with Auburn’s run game. Counters are natural compliments to zones, because they bank on fronts selling out towards the flow of the OL to create its new hard-edged run lane. The Tigers cannot let last year’s shortcomings define what this needed wrinkle can provide to their offense. 

#Stop ignoring horizontal pass patterns

Stylistically, Freeze likes his run game to work laterally and his pass game to attack vertically. If secondaries are worried about rallying towards the flat, they’re a little more susceptible to targets flying over their heads downfield for field-flipping gains. But this past year, Auburn’s dropback efforts hit a clear ceiling. Despite the tendency to try deep with All Verts, Shots, Switches, and Posts (25% pass share combined), lateral designs proved to be more consistent and trusty across the season. Not all delivered value, but Bootlegs, Slants, Spot/Snag, and Rubs pooled together for a 54% Success Rate, a clear bump from the team’s overall figure that fell under 37%. The downfield stuff should still be visible; especially with this off-season’s pass-catching upgrades. But, those select horizontal patterns were dependable designs for Payton Thorne to execute and deserve more reps, which could further provide more balance to one of the most one-dimensional operations in the conference. 

Florida

#Purge predictable tendencies 

Though Florida does a good job featuring complimentary concepts and sports a healthy marriage between the run and the pass, the offense’s operation still gives a number of tells. Leaning on the run from the pistol is fairly common, but the Gators were especially one-dimensional in this context. Their Rush Rate was a lofty 74%. And of those 221 plays, 86% of them were made up of four rush concepts: Outside Zones, Inside Zone Split, IZ Reads, Duo Dive. The former led the way with 74 reps (39% share). All in all, those looks composed two-thirds of Florida’s pistol plays. That’s a really high concentration. That said, the pistol did produce heightened results. Routinely boosted by play fakes, Mertz’s ANY/A and Explosive Pass Rate shot up to 11.6, and 17%, respectively. Moreover, the team rocked a 6.3 Yards/Cary with almost a fifth of these tries going for at least 10 yards. Despite the gains the pistol provided, Florida still favored the gun. And from there, passes drove the operation. Only 30% of such plays were runs. But unlike the pistol, shotgun snaps generated noticeably reduced output in both facets. Runs were particularly muted ala a 3.3 Y/A and 37% Success Rate. Fading these plays moving forward ought to be considered. Not only for the clear tendencies set, but for the obvious bruise on the team’s bottomline. 

#Stop the love for Off-Tackles

Despite being a major part of Florida’s run game, Outside Zone Off-Tackles have failed to be a consistent, dependable play under Billy Napier. Though needed to help set up the scheme’s abundant Play Action Bootlegs, their volume can afford to be decreased based on their overall efficiency. Only a third have worked over the last two seasons. Yet, the concept was the Gators’ most featured play in 2023. No other look tallied a double-digit play share. Again, Off-Tackles do possess value. In addition to helping the team’s deception efforts, a sixth of these runs produced an explosive carry last year. But too often did this offense set itself up for failure by exhibiting hubris in this concept to start a set of downs. And, that created a precipitous effect throughout Florida’s general M.O. The recent investment in size hasn’t manifested in this perimeter run hitting its groove, which shouldn’t be a major shock. Mobile lines tend to rep Off-Tackles better than big, lumbering ones. Things might change with an experienced front, but I hold little optimism this zone will be a net-positive based on the available ingredients this fall. 

#Erase the timidness

Florida might utilize aggressive tactics, but its pass game was unequivocally conservative with Mertz at QB last season. No SECer had a lower average depth of target, or higher percentage of passes target behind the line of scrimmage. Plus, he was the only conference passer to log a double-digit Checkdown Rate. Against his hardest opponents, less than 27% of his throws traveled over 10 yards downfield, a bottom3 mark in this summer's Impact Study. Generally speaking, Mertz did not like targeting receivers unless they were wide open. Only 14% of his attempts were contested last year, which was the SEC’s low. The conservative approach did limit mistakes and morphed Mertz into one of college football’s top caretakers. He’ll make his bread attacking short and allowing his talented YAC-threats to carve up opponents in space. But if he’s serious about making the leap as a passer, Mertz must show more tenacity and increase his downfield offerings. Verticality births big gainers much easier than dinks and dunks. And if he tosses a couple of more intercepables along the way, so be it. This offense needs to create some margin of error for itself. And, enhancing its aerial potency is a surefire way to do so. 

Georgia

#Zap the SECCG from memory

Even with my resources, I spent way too much time trying to find a glaring flaw in Georgia’s overall scheme. And guess what: I couldn’t find one. They are frontrunners using motion and shifts, pass early and often, provide their QB with guises and gimmes, executive concepts at a high level, and their OL has a sterling pedigree. Mike Bobo didn’t change many things up from Todd Monken’s M.O. And after another excellent campaign, changing course would've rather silly. But for their playoff aspirations, some of the sloppiness shown during last year’s SEC Championship Game is a slight drawback. The Dawgs logged too many turnover-worthy plays and couldn’t push the Tide off the ball – an uncharacteristic trait of Kirby Smart’s recent offenses. And once again, Bobo failed to dodge claims he “can’t win the big one”. Georgia can channel their dark side and dwell on the negative emotions associated with last year’s slip. But for as talented as the Dawgs are ahead of 2024, focusing on the present and putting that performance in the rearview mirror is the brighter course. 

#Ignore the failure of outside runs

Georgia runs a complementary scheme, and lots of different looks find success. The script mixes straight zones with split zones, split zones with counters, counters with power play action, etc. With the balance they exude, practically everything they feature is linked. Though most of their runs aimed to hit between the tackles, UGA prudently will test the perimeter. But despite the set-up and decent timing on most of these tries, results were mixed in 2023. Off-Tackles and Tosses posted a combined Success Rate under 40%. Plus, only 1/6 jet sweeps worked. Other concepts did shine, but the aforementioned edge-minded zones held the 5th-largest play share of any family group in Georgia’s script. Frankly, they carry more weight than other looks. Plus, meh results on Tosses were responsible for the team’s subpar figures in short yardage situations. Considering their place in the offense, docking their usage would be a knee-jerk reaction. Instead, the scheme should shore up execution. Even if the Dawgs are only relatively average, that’s one less weakness opponents can exploit. 

#Purge the pressing

Carson Beck does a lot of things well. He’s accurate, can layer throws, and take care of business finding guys on passing downs. In case you haven’t heard, many consider him QB1 ahead of April’s NFL draft. But despite checking plenty of boxes, one hangup on his profile is a propensity to press. Overall, his 7.4% Interceptable Pass Rate fell below the league average. And when not using guises, deceptions, or scheme elements to trick defenses, his clip shot up to 11.0% – that’s well past the dangerzone and clearly a red flag. And, it only gets worse when the heat is on. His INTA% under duress climbed up to 16%; and against his hardest opponents just missed hitting 20%. Another year in the saddle should help some of these hiccups. But, Beck and Georgia’s upside can ill-afford to run back this level of risky ball placement if everyone’s goals are to be met. 

Kentucky

#Forget the slow pace

In the post-Eddie Gran years, Mark Stoops has directed his play callers to milk clock, operate slowly, and shorten ball games. Though UK evolved as a scheme and featured some modern ideas and methods, BBNers couldn’t help but be taken aback by the glaring lack of urgency when the Cats had the ball. And, the recent pro-style influences amplified the anemia. This past season, no college offense averaged less plays/game than UK’s 56.1. And even with fun window dressing, defenses had plenty of time to pick up tells and tendencies. Of course, there were numerous examples calling for more uptempo from this staff last year. But after a vigorous spring period, new OC Bush Hamdan seems to be practicing what Stoops has preached. Still, a question remains just how fast the Cats want to be. Plus, there’s no guarantee they might slow back down if injuries or inconsistencies start the year. Stoops understandably doesn't want to be the slowest team in the nation again; but is he wanting the Cats to average 72 plays/game? That would be a major year-over-year shift for the SEC’s most-tenured coach to greenlight. 

#Stop the short yardage miscues

Back-to-back years, UK has not been a good team executing Outside Zone Off-Tackles. Despite it being the offense’s most-repped concept last year, the design routinely sullied and soiled rushing efforts on a 32% Success Rate and 3.2 Y/A. But since Hamdam’s “spread-a-han” scheme will lean heavily on that look, it’s presumed the Cats’ big boys will be coached up and rep it with more gumption moving forward. Erasing it from the operation is out of the question. To get their edge back and provide added value, however, this run game must play tougher in phone booths near the sticks. On runs with 3 yards or less to gain, only Mississippi State posted a lower Success Rate within the SEC last fall. Moreover, a quarter of those tries allowed an element of havoc with over a tenth going for a loss. The Cats fell into the league’s bottom4 in both respects. If returning OL coach Eric Wolford is serious about remodeling the Big Blue Wall, finding more consistency in these spots is a great place to start. Stoops’ best teams have had lines not afraid to mash and maul; even if foes knew what was coming. 

#Purge the disruptions 

UK’s 2023 pass game was constantly grounded by blunders. For the second-consecutive season, the receivers posted a double-digit Drop Rate, the OL allowed a below-average Pressure Rate, and UK’s passers gave defenders way too many opportunities to touch the ball. Plus, the unit logged more penalties, upping the already challenging degree of difficulty. In terms of total volume of “disrupted” attempts, Devin Leary’s 57 were the 7th-most in the power5. For much of the season, his such rate clocked over 20%. Ultimately, his 15.7% still finished among the 25-highest in college football. As the good, ole-fashioned eye test confirmed, that’s way too much for a team wishing to topple expectations. UK cannot expect to contend if that level of dysfunction is carried over into 2024. As is, the new offensive coaches have been calling for increased consistency and steadiness. That should scream purging these boo boos is a clear emphasis ahead of this fall. 

LSU

#Stop ignoring play action

Jayden Daniels and Garrett Nussmeier owned the conference’s two lowest Play Action% in 2023. Every other qualifying SECer posted a double-digit clip, but not these guys. And though there are certainly sample size issues with their returns, both posted superb stats on play fakes. Across his 22, the Heisman recorded an astronomical 27.0 Adjusted Net Passing Yards/Attempt (ANY/A). On Nuss’s 7 career tries, he has tallied 126 yards. Again, what he’s shown us so far in this context is limited. But, he seems to have the goods. For as pass happy as the Bayou Bombers plan to be, a little deception and misdirection could keep foes from locking onto their major tendencies. Plus, moving coveragemen’s eyes towards the backfield on occasion ought to help receivers gain more wins deep. With Nussmeier’s potency, the Tigers could be lethal if this tactic becomes more visible. But will the new play callers want to change the scheme’s status quo?

#Forget about QB runs bolstering the ground game

Nussmeier just isn’t the crop of quarterback to anchor a team’s rushing attack or consistently find edges with his legs. He’s not a total stiff. But let’s be honest, his value comes from his arm. Daniels rose-scented many of LSU’s ground issues. When including scrambles, he was responsible for 49% of the team’s explosive carries, 43% of the yard after contact, and 42% of broken tackles. Tiger RBs saw less than 15% of their runs top 10 yards, which would’ve tracked to place inside the league’s bottom5 – well worse off than its league-leading 23.7% clip behind Daniels touches. Additionally, the run game will simply possess less “gravity” (or pull/extra attention) without him behind center. Again, Nuss isn’t much of a threat outside of structure. So backs might be bullseyed plenty. Cushion could shrink and splashes could be lacking. Even with Daniels’ pull in the read game, other ball carriers only rocked a mid 2.1 rush yard before contact average. LSU’s reputation as one of the best lines in football will squarely be put to the test. Though an elite pass blocking crew, more will be expected of them if the Tigers wish to continue kicking ass on the ground. 

#Purge any thought of tweaking the dropback game

LSU’s 2023 pass offense was undeniably special. Besides featuring concepts and patterns that play to my own biases, practically everything the Tigers tried through the air worked. Of their 6 most featured passes, only 1 averaged under 7.5 Y/A or had a sub-46% Success Rate. Over a half-dozen looks rocked a clip north of 68%. Though it would be insane to assume the overall efficiency can be replicated, the scheme’s proof of concept is firm. This is not the time to shake things up or go back to the drawing board. The Tigers did maintain some of the principles of 2019’s juggernaut, but 2020’s effort diverged too much from the blueprint and the magic was lost. Stick with the staples that worked and believe that can again bring about glory. With a downfield-oriented passer and talented receivers, this lot is fully capable to help the good times keep rolling. 

Ole Miss

#Stop the pass-second approach

The run game will always drive a Lane Kiffen offense. But based on the team’s roster and last year’s returns, the Rebels ought to turn towards the skies on first downs this fall. As the most common down in football, how an offense operates in these spots generally reflects their overall makeup and effectiveness. In 2023, Ole Miss nearly doubled its Yards/Play when passing compared to running on first downs. Only LSU posted a better figure than their 10.1. Plus, the Rebels’ Passing Success Rate held a 13 point edge to its rushing counterpart. Dropping back clearly provided more juice. Ole Miss shouldn’t abandon the run, nor necessarily totally flip the script. But with how potent this unit is set up to be through the air, Jaxson Dart shouldn’t be denied extra opportunities to nab completions. For what it’s worth, only Auburn logged a lower overall Pass Rate within the SEC last year. 

#Erase the negatives

Quinshon Judkins and Ole Miss’s running backs were obviously hunted last fall. Nearly 28% of the team’s designed tries experienced defensive contact in the backfield. As you might suspect, the Rebels’ didn’t rank well in either rush yard before contact average or Negative Run Rate. In fact, only South Carolina turned in a higher mark than their 13% clip of the latter. But by volume, no SEC offense came close to trumping Ole Miss’s 62 losses and 129 run havocs allowed. Captain Obvious wanted me to remind you that rush yards come easier without constant obstructions in ball carriers’ paths. The OL has to erase opportunities for fronts to knock them back and clog up lanes. Perhaps, if the offense is less ground-oriented, this problem might fix itself; as they won’t sell out to stop the run as aggressively. But no matter the Rebels’ run:pass ratio, constantly playing behind the chains because of a botched block is a bad offensive trait. 

#Scrub Mesh from the script

When in need of a man-beater, Mesh is often the play du jour for the majority of modern play callers; especially on later downs. The Rail/Kelly variety is particularly visible across all levels of football. But despite the recent love, SEC defenses have won the war recently. For three-straight seasons, that look’s Success Rate has worsened, which isn’t an auspicious trend for those who feature this Rub concept. Early on in 2023, it was clear Mesh plays were not bringing much value for this offense. At the bye week, I labeled it as a play to erase even then. In the end, the concept finished with the 7th-highest play share among Ole Miss’s passes and was the most-repped on 3rd Down, despite rocking a Success Rate firmly in the 30’s. Charlie Weis Jr. and the Lane Train need to pivot off the trend and stay ahead of the curve. Though still an effective look, opponents will be looking out for it, which is all the more reason to cook something else up. 

Mississippi State

#Zap the old identity

Learning and executing three different schemes in as many years is a hard ask. The ante gets upped when each of those offenses had completely different traits and objectives. Still, Mississippi State needs to fully embrace the super spread offense Jeff Lebby brought with him to Starkville. Already a roster recruited to do damage aerially, the Bulldogs will have a much better fighting chance with that scheme than others. Besides leaning into the vertical passing game that’s quite good at helping offenses generate explosives, the operation’s pacing and space also creates natural wins where shear talent cannot. The goal will be to play fast and brash while stressing opponents sideline-to-sideline and endzone-to-endzone. Additionally, this style takes pressure off the OL to dominate the box. Since the scheme works to create advantageous counts and fronts, they generally will be set up to succeed. Though not a miracle pill, the super spread is well-suited to bring a floundering offense to its feet. That said, total buy-in will be needed if Miss State is to play the role of spoiler this fall. 

#Quit running soft

With how the super spread will lean into aggressive alignments and tactics, rushers must show more strength toting the rock than what’s been happening lately. Over the last two seasons, all of the team’s stable metrics failed to beat the conference average. This past season when runs received a higher emphasis by the scheme, Miss State placed in the league’s bottom4 in YAC average with a 19% team Broken Tackle Rate (average ~ 27%). Of the 95 runs with initial defensive contact behind the line of scrimmage since 2022, only 16 resulted in positive yardage. By volume, instances of such carries doubled year-over-year. That’s not far off from what a tackle dummy can offer. Angry runs are lacking but opportunity is abundant. That said, rebuilding this unit’s reputation won’t happen overnight. It will have to be accomplished carry by carry, reminding foes how much pain these backs are to deal with each rep. 

#Stop the HAVOC

The Bulldogs’ pass game was fairly combustible last year. While previously a somewhat dependable down-to-down offense, the unit allowed too much adversity to continue a steady stream of success. Miss State fell below the SEC average in both Turnover Rate and Pressure Rate. Plus, over a third of their pass plays suffered from a form of havoc. The Bulldogs went from a top4 offense in this context to one in the bottom3. A year removed from the Air Raid, they donned the conference’s lowest Passing Success Rate and Y/A thanks to the copious stress. Even with verticality and splash plays being more of a priority, Miss State finished with the league’s 2nd-lowest Explosive Pass Rate – a stat in which the team hasn’t come close to cracking the double-digits in a half-decade. Yes, being forced to play Mike Wright definitely hurt the bottomline. But, it just goes to show just how important limiting havoc is in regards to maintaining a well-functional football team. Blake Shapen isn’t a twitchy athlete built to erase mistakes and play backyard ball. So, providing him a clean environment to go out and execute is all the more important. 

Missouri

#Zap the need to establish it

Eli Drinkwitz has a clear affinity for the Outside Zone Off-Tackle. It will always be Missouri’s bread and butter so long he’s in charge. And naturally, that concept is attempted early and often. But even with the noticeable uptick in efficiency not only on Off-Tackles but the scheme’s core runs at large, the Tigers were scarier when passing; especially to start things off. On first downs in first quarters, Mizzou’s 54% Passing Success Rate trumped their rushing clip by 14 points. And, their Yards/Pass doubled their Yards/Run. Plus, perhaps more importantly in the macro sense, they were less prone to move backwards. Missouri shouldn’t deviate from its core concepts. But considering the skill in the pass game, the evidence firmly backs increasing dropbacks. Saying the quiet part out loud, sticking with the run-first approach would also decrease opportunities for Luther Burden. And, who wants that? After all, let’s be honest, the run – or the threat of the run – has long been established through this scheme’s past tendencies. Use that to your advantage, Eli. Time to zag for at least a season. 

#Quit running soft

The SEC’s most voluminous rusher last year didn’t overtly show off zeal or potency. Despite his numerous yards and highlights, he finished below the conference average in Explosive Run Rate, YAC average, and Broken Tackle Rate. In case you didn’t know, Missouri was the only SEC offense to log more rush yards before contact than after in 2023. Though the line is presumed to again be among the league’s best in that regard, having a plan B never hurts. Both of the Tigers’ transfer RBs sported mellow stable metrics last fall. Knowing they’re leveling up from the G5, that’s a tad disheartening. That said, the chance to shine is all theirs. Heightened zeal will inherently help Missouri’s rush attack have more teeth. With the aforementioned efficiency gap compared to the pass, the run game can’t just be average if getting to the playoffs is the goal. And, the backs just can’t be products of their environments coasting through creases. 

#Zap midrange patterns

Though the player evaluator in me would like to see Brady Cook make strides as an intermediate passer this fall, the scheme head inside wants Missouri to keep avoiding that area of the field. For whatever reason, Cook just hasn’t been sharp targeting between 11-20 yards downfield. This concern was illuminated during this summer’s Impact Study. Against his hardest opponents, both his Midrange Uncatchable% and Accuracy% fell into the group’s bottom4. Across the whole season, no other full-time SEC starter posted a worse figure of the latter. For a passer some consider to be a top10 QB, that’s undoubtedly a stain on his profile. Drinkwitz has long been aware of this shortcoming and overly has a “dink and chunk” operation (a pass scheme where short and deep throws are prioritized over intermediate attempts). And for the sake of efficiency and obtaining optimal results, that ought to continue. 

Oklahoma

#Purge the thought of tweaking the scheme

Though Oklahoma’s operation last year wasn’t perfect, it certainly was a step in the right direction. Dillon Gabriel benefitted from terrific scheme elements, the Sooners had a healthy run/pass marriage, and both facets had pop. Passing under pressure, on 3rd down, and targeting all areas of the field improved year-over-year. Even with a bunch of newbies set to start, Seth Littrell shouldn’t burn previous playbooks. Jackson Arnold is full of promise, but he’s still an undersized first-year starter about to try and make his way through the hardest conference in college football. Motions, play actions, and early down RPOs will be crucial in easing him along and providing him manageable completions to build his confidence. And speaking of the run game, keeping opponents guessing is a sound idea. Last year according to Pro Football Focus, the Sooners had equal weight between zone and gap scheme runs. Oklahoma is poised to be a deadly cloak and dagger attack. But, the offense isn’t quite ready for a more deliberate, wide-open approach.

#Forget the poor trench work

With four fresh faces along the front five, forgetting about last year’s middling blocking should be easy. Despite a couple of professionals bolstering their ranks, the Sooners’ 2.2 rush yard before contact average tracked below the SEC mean. And with defenders creating decent engagement, the offense hardly stood out capturing explosive runs. Oklahoma’s 13.5% clip solidly would have placed inside their new conference’s bottom4. In terms of PFF grades, their blockers barely finished being ranked outside the triple-digits. Only 12 P5 offenses recorded worse marks. Again, the Sooners are well-positioned to turn the page and put last year’s lousy line play in the past. But it’s still important to recognize, none of their presumed starters graded above both national averages in run or pass block grade last year. 

#Forget about banking on 3rd downs

Due to the veteran makeup of last year’s offense, Oklahoma could afford to do or die on 3rd downs. In fact, the Sooners shot up from the middle-of-the-pack to inside the nation’s top10 year-over-year in these spots. Already volatile situations with copious variables, there was also no guarantee that efficiency would carry over into 2024 even if the entire roster remained intact. Though the old school of thought is to use your early downs to make things more manageable for a fledgling passer, that thinking is totally misguided. The best 3rd down offenses are offenses that avoid 3rd down the best. Behind ample deception and eye candy, this scheme is set up to do just that on first and second downs. And as insinuated, taking weight off Arnold would be wise considering how money downs often sport a higher degree of difficulty, level of pressure, and complexity of pass patterns. 

South Carolina

#Erase the Three-and-Outs

Despite overall improvement within the scheme under Dowell Loggains, South Carolina was more prone to quick series last year. Inflating by 6 points year-over-year, their Three-and-Out Rate fell into the league’s bottom4. Sabotaged by poor line play and an underwhelming run game, over a quarter of the Gamecocks’ drives only lasted several plays. Like a few other offenses, ditching the run for more dropbacks is on StatCat’s wishlist. Rushing to start a set of downs was pure poison for South Carolina’s offense. In meaningful minutes, first down passes yielded a 54% Success Rate and 8.5 Y/A – compared to 29% and 3.2 on the ground. And to further highlight why the Cocks should come out slinging, their red-hot 66% Passing Success on first downs in first quarters was a league-high by almost 8 points. Though Lanorris Sellers has juice, expecting him to squeeze out those numbers right away is incredibly optimistic. But considering the down right putrid returns on the ground, the Cocks’ upside is immensely greater with the ball in Sellers hands. 

#Forget the poor trench work

Shane Beamer has yet to coach a good OL at South Carolina; or even a decent one. Injuries and hodgepodge lineups aside, his unit’s rush yard before contact average and Pressure Rate have worsened three-straight years. Amongst SEC offenses, the team’s cushion has placed no better than 2nd-worst under his watch. Moreover, the Cocks have placed inside the bottom3 allowing hurries 2/3 seasons. Mirroring the decline in YBC, their Negative Play Rate has also lost ground each subsequent season. South Carolina has represented the conference floor each year under Beamer. For the sake of his job, this level of dysfunction is not sustainable, nor is it a way to build clout in this conference. Operationally, the Gamecocks are doubling-down on a zone blocking scheme. Like their new run game coordinator coming from Georgia State, SC dedicated over 70% of their run plays to zones – a major shift from the Satterfield scheme that liked Duo and Counter. But as aforementioned, these concepts haven’t been too valuable. Hopefully, another year to gel and shore up techniques will pay dividends. Because as is, the OL presents to be a major liability for this program. 

#Fade passes behind the line

Poor line play has overly forced South Carolina’s pass game to operate as an extension of its rushing attack. Over the last two years, roughly 28% of Spencer Rattler’s throws targeted behind the line of scrimmage - one of the highest mark’s in the SEC. But whether a screen, RPO outlet, checkdown, or otherwise, these attempts weren’t too fruitful. Yes, they padded Ratter’s accuracy stats. But with more onus on pass catchers to do the heavy lifting, less than 37% of those plays found situational success – well below Rattler’s numbers on all other attempts. Interestingly enough, the figures suggest Sellers won’t have to completely ditch the short stuff in order to be effective. But fading backward passes will go a long way on the statsheet. Only focusing on throws 0-5 yards downfield, the Cocks have captured a 51% Success Rate over the last two seasons, which obviously is way higher than tries behind the line. The hot potato stuff will likely still be needed. But, just try to run those outlets with a smidge more depth. 

Tennessee

#Stop being so static

Josh Heupel’s super spread is one of the most effective schemes in college football. Like other Veer and Shoot attacks, his offenses play fast, deploy aggressive tactics, and exhibit balance amongst concepts. But, one deviation in Tennessee’s brand is lack of emphasis on motion. Heupel generally would rather catch foes lining up late than make them overthink how to defend a man on the move. Other than TAMU, no SEC offense posted a lower total motion usage than the Vols’ 18.9%. However, on the select snaps when those tactics were featured, Rocky Top’s metrics bumped up. Though the gains were marginal, Tennessee’s overall Success Rate, Yards/Play, Explosive Play Rate, and Negative Play all improved on plays with any form of motion compared to straight reps. The Vols don’t need to go gung-ho, but a little added pressure could also open up things for Golden Boy Nico Iamaleava. 

#Fade Y-Insert

Theoretically, Y-Insert is a perfect concept for this scheme to feature. When defenses deploy undermanned boxes, a thumping H-back can wallop a drop LB to spring a quick north-south try. Think of it as a modern spread Iso play. And a few years ago, it was one of Tennessee's best run looks. But despite a usage increase, this concept has failed to overly get the job done. Over the last two years, nothing has been repped more in meaningful minutes. Yet, its Success Rate in that time comes in under 40% on a rather modest 4.9 Y/A. As a fan of this look, it is disconcerting the Vols have biffed it back-to-back years. But considering how their man scheme and tackle wrap looks have performed, it’s time for Heupel to shuffle up the script. 

#Forget last year happened

Despite having one of the mightiest arm’s in the land, Joe Milton failed to brush up his deep accuracy. He left so many plays on the field that his 8.8% Explosive Pass Rate fell into the SEC’s bottom3. A shame to have such a dud after the fireworks 2022 teased. Heupel still managed to scheme wins through the air. But spectators and analysts alike surely aren’t looking forward to them spamming the same horizontal RPOs over and over like last year. Folks want to see Iamaleava grip it and rip it to his flashy pass catchers downfield. Vol Nation yearns for him to lead the conference in deep passing production; not in output on throws behind the line. From all accounts, everyone in Knoxville is hella-confident he’ll be able to deliver added consistency. Easier said than done. But even if the Vols are relatively average snatching explosives, they’ll likely be right where they want to be - in the thick of the playoff hunt. 

Texas

#Zap the late down woes

The Longhorns tended to come up short on 3rd downs last year. On a 38.4% Conversion Rate, they barely cracked the top70. The team went far. But, it’s fair to wonder what Texas’ ceiling would have looked like with a handful more successful money downs. Though crucial week-to-week, there’s hardly any year-over-year carryover in these spots. All the more reason for the Longhorns to dismiss last year’s disappointing figures and focus forward to what 2024 holds. If this offense’s showings against the meat of its schedule is any indication to how Texas will play in their new conference, they’ll generally need to be a more dependable lot on early downs. To reiterate, the best 3rd down offense is an offense that avoids 3rd down the best. With the talent and brain power Texas has, they definitely have the tools to do better in these spots this fall. 

#Erase the fumbles

Along with their money down miscues, fumbles also helped Texas shoot itself in the foot. You remember the part in Remember the Titans where Coach Boone demands players that fumble the ball to run a mile as punishment? Maybe Steve Sarkisian should look into doing that this off-season with his ball carriers. Four Longhorns had multiple boo boos. Even without Ewers 5, Texas’ Fumble Rate more than tripled the SEC average. Captain Obvious wanted me to remind you butterfingers usually help opponents steal possessions and should be avoided. Of the Longhorns 16 fumbles, 9 were recovered by opponents, which ranked in the back third of college offenses. Again for a team with championship aspirations, giving away possessions usually isn’t a smart move. 

#Purge Ewers’ red flags

Ewers is a blue chip passer with plenty of desirable traits. He can fire passes with zip from numerous launch points, slink and secure available yards with his legs, and air it out deep. One of the most dangerous offensive executives around, he’s commonly maximized by scheme elements. But for Ewers to fully live up to his potential, he must rid his profile of nagging negative characteristics. Though an excellent passer with guises and on the move, all of his ball placement metrics on straight attempts within structure are troubling. In back-to-back Impact Studies, his such throws failed to beat the group average in Adjusted Completion%, Accuracy%, Depth Adjusted Accuracy%, Uncatchable Pass Rate, and Interceptable Pass. About 11% of these throws were turnover-worthy, which is beyond alarming considering the circumstances. Perhaps, Ewers will remain well hidden within Sark’s scheme. But for his long-term viability as a passer, he’s got to raise his pass floor by bolstering his ball placement without tactical help. 

Texas A&M

#Forget the stale approach

Once upon a time, Jimbo Fisher’s scheme was a spaceship jetting across the sky. But for much of his TAMU tenure, it was a clunker that sputtered and stalled. Instead of adopting new ideas and evolving with modern tactics, his offenses routinely finished below the SEC average in play action, RPO, and motion usage. Though one size doesn’t fit all, these tools generally help grease offensive output and stress opponents. New OC Collin Klein is certainly a different flavor of play caller than Jimbo. But just how electric he plans to get with scheme elements remains to be seen. The 12th Man has been rather thirsty for some innovation on this front. But, change just for change’s sake might not be the best move. For what it’s worth, the Aggies were a much more successful offense on straight designs than RPOs last year. The same was true on non-motion plays compared to ones with a man on the move. Still, this scheme is desperate for a shot in the arm. And, leaning into those elements can quickly make this team Mike Elko’s own and turn the page on the dusty Fisher offense. 

#Erase the first down miscues

The Aggies sucked running the ball to start a set of downs last year. There’s just no getting around it. Despite the undeniable shortcoming on the statsheet, this offense favored the run on first downs. Six of the Aggies’ most-repped concepts in these spots were all ground looks. In meaningful minutes, four of them recorded a Success Rate south of 35%, which had a nasty effect on the team’s overall operation. Only South Carolina owned a worse clip within the SEC; and only Arkansas sported a lower Y/A. Besides those two aforementioned cellar dwellers, no conference offense donned a lower Explosive Run Rate and rush yard before contact average. Of their 29 negative plays, 17 came on runs. You get it. Things need fixing ASAP if the Aggies are to find their footing in 2024 and upend a few opponents. 

#Stop the leakage

Texas A&M arguably has been the Power5 worst pass blocking unit over the last couple of seasons. Despite the optimism and unearned gravitas, Steve Addazzio’s dudes were just guys. In the brief history of StatCat’s charting, the Aggies are the only SEC offense to allow a Pressure Rate over 40% in multiple seasons– a feat they easily accomplished the last two years. Almost single-handedly, they ballooned the conference average 3 points. And of course, all the duress has had a disastrous effect preventing this offense from being its best self. Last year, Max Johnson recorded the highest single-season Pressure Rate while Conner Weigman’s career clip became the new mark to beat for multi-year starters. Plus, only six other major league teams graded as worse pass blockers in PFF’s eyes. To provide stability, their pass blocking must be remedied immediately. Though Weigman is a sound passer under the gun and generally tough, allowing extending hits on your signal caller hardly is a heady play; especially with the hindsight of how that forced TAMU to trot out a number of QBs in recent years. The leakage must stop. 

Vanderbilt

#Purge the previous scheme

Offenses under Clark Lea have been conventional and boring as well as creative and try-hard. But no matter the approach, the results just haven’t been good. Pick your stat. And, odds are the ‘Dores ranked in the conference’s bottom5 if not represent the SEC floor. Vandy constantly kept throwing stuff at the wall to see what would stick; and few things did. This past fall, only two concepts in meaningful minutes with at least 7 reps beat a 50% Success Rate. Consistency is an issue. Explosiveness is an issue. Blocking is an issue. Everything is an issue. Naturally, that is to be expected by the conference’s least-talented roster year-in and year-out. Despite efforts, the ‘Dores have never been able to establish an offensive identity. And without a proof of concept, nothing was bankable. Hopefully, the hiring of New Mexico State’s offensive braintrust will translate into some version of a shared vision. Because, the Lea tenure might not have much leeway left. Tangible Progress has to be made this year. The ‘Dores must show the rest of the SEC who they are; if not just the conference’s perennial doormat. 

#Erase the runs from the pass-options

Vanderbilt used RPOs on over a quarter of its plays; good for the 6th-highest usage in the SEC. But like many things, the ‘Dores were not overly skilled executing those designs. Though RPOs did help buoy the pass game, Vandy’s opponents overwhelming dared them to try and win in the trenches. They were twice as likely to log a run than a pass on RPO designs last fall. And, their rush returns stunk. Vandy was the only SEC offense to average under 4 yards per RPO carry. Their Rushing Success Rate on straight gives was 11 points higher in comparison. And, the team’s rush yard before contact average was nearly a half-yard higher. Behind the rancid rushing figures in this context, only one other SEC offense posted a worse RPO Success Rate. So even with the gains they might provide QBs, fading RPOs hints to be net-positive for this offense. 

#Forget about using play action 

Though incoming QB Diego Pavia is a wiry passer who plays with a chip on his shoulder, he still is undersized and lacks ideal vision. He isn’t one of those throwers that can turn his back to defenses or relocate downfield receivers once he drops his eyes. This flaw played out when using play action against his hardest opponents. While failing to display downfield precision, he was twice as likely to toss an interceptable as an explosive pass. His 8.4 ANY/A from his Impact Study would have tracked to finish dead last in the SEC. And practically speaking, Vanderbilt’s ground game is so unthreatening that every conference defense will sit back to protect the sticks, making play fakes less effective. Plus, judging Pavia off his passing floor figures, he is positioned to be the best distributor this offense has had in years in structure without guises.