SEC StatCat Column: Week 1

A blank page. So much potential, so much possibility, so much poetry and prose waiting to be unleashed by sheer creativity, pageantry, and will power. Finally, the story of 2024 is ready to be penned. Like the previous fall (and the one before that), college football fans are in store for a historic autumn full of carnage, color, and captivating action. A fantastic yarn is about to unfurl. 

 

And, Week 1 will waste no time serving up some juicy games. Naturally, teams hailing from the League Where it Just Means More find themselves in a number of must-watch showcases. Though some will pay to beat the hell out of Poop State or Awful A&M, the entire conference is out to nab a playoff bid. Everyone’s slate is clean, loaded with hope and golden scenarios of glory. 

 

Of course, that’s not how every SECers season will shake out. There will be major winners, disappointing efforts, overachievers, and lousy losers. And each week, I plan to escort you through the madness. 

HEAT CHECK

 

Riding Talking Season’s mighty gusts, the conference’s power rankings are still coasting along with many pre-season predictions. We’ll have a better feeling about our vibes moving forward after this weekend. 

 

1. Georgia: IDLE

Still top dogs (dawgs) in the SEC. QB1, a premier OL, and another defense loaded with beef, braun, and bravado. 

 

2. Texas: IDLE

Texas back? Sark’s fourth year in Austin brings a lot of expectations that the Longhorns will remain title contenders and transition smoothly into the SEC. 

 

3. Ole Miss: IDLE

Continuity is on the Rebels’ side. Rat poison or no, the roster is possibly the best in school history. 

 

4. Alabama: IDLE

Potentially the most dangerous team in the conference, the Tide have enough talent to top anyone. But, I remain a little more wait-and-see to how Kalen DeBoer’s style meshes with the present lot. 

 

5. Missouri: IDLE

Blessed by the easiest schedule in the league, Drinkwitz and Co. should roll thru the year so long they don’t trip over their own feet. 

 

6. LSU: IDLE

The offense alone makes Brian Kelly’s Big Cats one of the most challenging matchups in the game. If the defense can get back to being okay and play cohesively as a unit, then LSU will really be frisky. 

 

7. Tennessee: IDLE

Josh Heupel has managed to raise his program’s floor. Yet, it’s still TBD on how high his talented, unproved roster’s ceiling is this fall. 

 

8. Oklahoma: IDLE

The Sooners are expected to make a sizable leap on the field in Venables' third year in charge. But, they are projected to have a league-high 4 tossup games. This cookie could crumble in many ways. 

 

9. Texas A&M: IDLE

Aggieland is singing a new tune – Well, honestly it's the same old song. But in this rendition, there are certainly more hints of sunshine and optimism following Jimbo Fisher’s exit. 

 

10. Kentucky: IDLE

Stoops’ Troops have been a beacon for consistency (or mediocrity) in the league of late. But with glaring unknowns and variables, even I don’t know for sure if they’ll be worth a damn. 

 

11. Florida: IDLE

Smitten by the SEC’s most-challenging schedule, the Gators will be subject to a death roll. Saturday’s game will give us a glimpse on whether they’re bound to sink or survive. 

 

12. Auburn: IDLE

The Tigers will be able to run the ball. I just wonder if that will be enough to move up the standings even with some awesome upgrades. 

 

13. South Carolina: IDLE

The Gamecocks OL has been the league’s worst during Shane Beamer’s tenure. Hard to have a firm floor with a flimsy foundation. 

 

14. Arkansas: IDLE

You know what they say about a hog backed into a corner? You’ll either lose or walk away with a ham sandwich. Unfortunately, I think Sam Pittman’s crew will provide plenty of hammy sammies to foes. 

 

15. Mississippi State: IDLE

The Veer and Shoot offense will give the Bulldogs a fighting chance. But this roster is as bleak as the city of Starkville. 

 

16. Vanderbilt: IDLE

On his last leg, Commanding Commodore Clark Lea turned to football power New Mexico State to provide his offense more pop. As you might suspect, no team has lower expectations. 

GAME 1: Arkansas Pine Bluff @ Arkansas (-48.5) U/O 57

Hypes:

1. Dan Enos is gone. While Bobby Petrino does have his warts (and motorcycle wreck scars), he at least led a somewhat competent offense last year despite being undercut by one of the worst pass blocking units in recent memory. The Razorbacks should at least finish outside the SEC’s bottom3 in overall Success Rate with this move. 

2. Taylen Green is an electric athlete with the ball in his hands. In this summer’s Impact QB Study, he owned a top3 YAC average, Broken Tackle Rate, and Explosive Run Rate. Plus, he erases sacks at a superb clip. Both his raw Sack and Dropback Conversion Rates were tops amongst his peers. His legs easily raise his offense’s floor. 

3. The Hogs should easily be able to push APB around today. The OL beefed up with a few key transfer additions. The most impactful is former San Jose tackle Fernando Carmona (No. 46 in the On3 Rankings). But, former Michigan Stater Keyshawn Blackstock and Tennessee Vol Addison Nichols aren’t slouches either. The investment upfront is a clear sign Coach Pittman doesn’t want to finish inside the SEC’s bottom5 in Havoc Rate with the league’s 2nd-highest Negative Play Rate like last year. 

Gripes:

1. Arkansas is coming off a season where they were not a trusty home favorite. In the six such games, they only covered once in 2023. There’s little question on who will win this game. But for those betting the spread, the near-49 point mark is a little scary. 

2. Taylen Green lacks sharp accuracy. It’s a fair assumption that some plays might be left on the field due to doo-doo ball placement. In each of the last two Impact QB studies, he turned in a below-average Accuracy%. This past year, he placed in the group’s bottom5 with the worst Depth-Adjusted figure. The tools are there, but it’s hard to put too much faith in his game until those biffs are nixed. 

3. The Razorbacks were a bad run defense last year. Along with allowing a bottom3 Success Rate and Yards/Carry in SEC-play last year, they finished among a handful of league defenses that surrendered positive value (per EPA) on a per attempt basis. Simply, the unit must create more havoc, starting today. The Hogs recorded contact behind the line, a TFL, or a forced fumble on only 22.8% of run opportunities, which was an SEC-low. Seeing some chaos today would be nice. 

The One Thing I Want to See: a clean game

A mistake-free evening will help this team’s confidence and aid in the Razorbacks developing an edge. I don’t want to see Green playing reckless, the OL not gelling, teammates pointing and blaming each other, or any kind of dysfunction. While a home cover would be swell to start the year, a blowout isn’t necessary. With plenty of new parts and mechanisms, just going out and executing the game plan should be the main focus for Pittman’s Pigs to find their footing.  

OFFICIAL PICK: N/A

Rule of thumb, I don’t touch lines that cross the 40-point threshold. But my gut says Arkansas Pine Bluff will struggle in all areas against an SEC team on an atypical Thursday night kickoff. 

 

GAME 2: Murray State @ Missouri (-46) U/O 57.5

 

Hypes:

1. Luther Burden Jr. – In case you haven't heard, he’s one helluva receiver. He’s many analysts’ WR1 ahead of spring’s draft. And, LB3 is unequivocally one of those players you cannot take your eyes off of. Either as a motion outlet, designed rusher, checkdown, or deep threat, he has the potential to score on any play. Last year while owning a top10 Yards/Route Run nationally, he led the SEC in yards after the catch with the league’s 2nd-most explosive catches. 

2. Last year, the Tigers were among a select group that cracked the conference’s top4 in both Pressure Rate allowed and Rush Yards Before Contact Average. Missouri’s OL is still a clear strength. Composed of three returning starters that helped Cody Shrader lead the league in rushing (and yards before contact), a former All-Conference Tackle, and ex-Freshman All-American, the big boys are well-primed to fuel Eli Drinkwitz’ offense to glory. 

3. No one in the SEC has an easier schedule. The Tigers only face 5 top35 SP+ teams and are expected to win by over 20 points on average ( and about 37 for the first month of season). Without much adversity, the hope is Missouri can coast through their slate relatively unscathed and healthy, making the playoffs in the process. 

Gripes:

1. Blake Baker changed his stripes and is no longer around to oversee the defense. After an embarrassing effort in 2021 where the Tigers nearly finished ranked in the triple-digits defensively in the SP+, he stewarded back-to-back top20 efforts. Only two teams allowed a lower offensive Success Rate in SEC-play last year. Replacing 5 key defensive starters also cannot be taken for granted, as Missouri starts a new era. New DC Corey Battoon can play a fun aggressive style to match Baker’s M.O., but more inconsistency on this side of the ball is expected. 

2. Concerning stable metrics around Marcus Carroll and Nate Noel might lower this offense’s ceiling. Though the OL should do quite well paving run lanes, questions remain on how much their backs can bring to the table. They might be able to hit a hole and capture available real estate, but will they be able to erase mistakes, move piles, and add value after contact? Both failed to be the national average in YAC or Broken Tackle Rate. So, the consensus looks at them as glass-half-empty options to up their games after leveling up. 

3. Brady Cook needs to shore up his downfield accuracy. Despite making great strides in his game and being considered one of the better QB options in the SEC, he’s failed to beat the conference average each of the last two years in downfield Accuracy% and Uncatchable Pass Rate. Additionally, he logged a subpar Depth Adjusted Accuracy, which was largely due to his shoddiness in the midrange, in this summer’s Impact QB study. Folks at the next level could hold that shortcoming against him.  

The One Thing I Want to See: 3 or more defensive sacks

Some defensive firepower would be nice. With a lesser opponent in town, Battoon’s platoon needs to show it has the capacity to provide value. The defense might allow a score or two and show some growing pains, but Missouri has to generate havoc, disrupt the Racers’ operation, and be noticeable pains in the ass. Snatching a few sacks is a great way to quiet the dissenters. 

OFFICIAL PICK: N/A

Another 40-point spread; so this one is off my radar. That said, I expect the Tigers to hit the ground running this year and light up the scoreboard. 

 

GAME 3: Temple @ Oklahoma (-42) U/O 58

Hypes:

1. The receiver room is fun. Of course, On3’s Jesse Simonton ranked them as a top10 unit ahead of this season. Though it won’t be at full-strength Friday, there’s no reason to fade this group’s expectations. Only Baylor’s defense allowed a higher EPA/pass than Temple last year. Splash gains and wow plays could happen right out of the gate. 

2. Oklahoma’s defense appears ready to play at Venables normal standards. Already touting All-SEC players Billy Bowman and Danny Stutsman, the Sooners went out and nabbed top125 Impact transfers in Damonic Williams and Caiden Woullard. The SP+ is still a little wait-and-see with them (13th), but I feel this defense is ripe to rise. 

3. Jackson Arnold pushing a Heisman Trophy favorite out of Norman created plenty of smoke this off-season. But, you know the saying. Even with Jeff Lebby gone, plenty of folks expect his play to be fire and live up to his 5-star reputation. 

Gripes: 

1. Despite the buzz, I am worried Jackson Arnold will become a game ma– oh I’m sorry. I forgot my manners. I was trying to say offensive executive. Oklahoma, like numerous spread offenses, enjoyed propping up their passers with plenty of scheme help like play actions, RPOs, screens, and eye candy. Nothing wrong with just being a product of one’s environment. But haters will fail to be impressed and discredit his stats. 

2. At least three – maybe four – OL transfers will start. Even for a Branson Hickman fan like myself, that’s a potential disaster waiting to happen if that group doesn’t gel quickly. Unlike Mississippi State that’s also trying a similar approach, the Sooners have much higher goals than trying not to be the worst team in the conference. With 8 toss-up games, a mid line could see Oklahoma’s season take a disappointing turn. That said, the Owls will be great target practice to start the year. 

3. Gavin Sawchuck was a boom-driven back last year. On just 14 attempts, breakaways (making one defender miss short then continue to run towards space) accounted for over half of his yards. No other newcomer, returning or departing SECer had a higher makeup. That’s a little worrisome considering Sawchuck’s meh efficiency stats; even without acknowledging the concerns surrounding the Sooners’ front five. 

One Thing I Want to See: Jackson Arnold light it up

Again, the Owls present to have one of the worst pass defenses in America. I don’t want to see buffers, missed reads, or inaccurate throws. Grip it and rip it, and give casuals a reason to believe in the Sooners moving forward. 

OFFICIAL PICK: N/A

Another 40-point spread; so this one is off my radar. But, I think I made it clear what I want to see (and expect to happen) 

 

GAME 4: Clemson vs Georgia (-13.5) U/O 48.5

Hypes: 

1. Georgia enters 2024 as the top team in the nation. What else is new? Kirby’s crew is locked and loaded for another season and expected to bring home its 3rd title since 2021. According to the initial SP+ ranking, the Bulldogs are at least a field goal better than any other team in America; and nearly a TD better than the next best SEC team. 

2. Cade Klubnik offers poor bang-for-buck. Clemson’s pass offense favors patterns close to the line of scrimmage. And thanks to various elements, tight windows are commonly tried. Across the year, well over a fifth of Klubnik’s tries were contested. Explosives were rare and risky passes were rampant. In this summer’s Impact QB Study, he joined five of his peers with more interceptables than big gainers. Though Georgia struggled to force a lot of turnover-worthy plays last fall, Klubnik might offer them up some gifts.

3. Georgia’s pass blocking has been the SEC’s gold standard. For three years, the Bulldogs have lowered their Pressure Rate allowed. And since 2022, they’ve held the conference’s best clip. Last season, they were the only team in the conference to sport a figure south of 20%. Some departures did take place. But, this unit remains one of the best in the SEC; if not the country. 

Gripes:

1. Nearly 60% of Beck’s output last year came off a scheme element, which was one of the highest marks in the SEC. But without guises, his passing profile lost shine. On true dropbacks, Spencer Rattler was the only SECer who tossed more interceptables. Beck’s 11.1% such rate placed him in the league’s bottom5. No matter how sturdy your resume is in other spots, that level of carelessness is one quick way to drop down draft boards. Those boo boos were also heightened when pressured. Thank goodness, UGA’s OL has presented overly pristine pockets. But, what will happen if that stops?

2. If Travis Etienne won’t play, I’ll be a little worried. Each of the last two seasons, he’s finished inside the SEC’s top8 in YAC average and Broken Tackle Rate. This past fall, his 3.9 and 40% respective clips each placed inside the league’s top3; as did his 18.5% Explosive Run Rate. Depth at the position is a little touch-and-go at the moment. So if he’s held out, Carson Beck might be asked to do more heavy lifting. 

3. Georgia should have confidence when it comes to blocking Clemson. But, downright dismissing Barrett Carter, TJ Parker, and Peter Woods from making any sort of impact at high noon would be foolish. After a full off-season to marinate, this spicy bunch will look to swing the game with the nation watching. The trio combined for 157 havoc plays and defensive stops last fall. 

The One Thing I Want to See: embarrass Cade Klubnik

Knock him down. Pick him off. Force him to play hot potato and seek inefficient targets. Beating up a Florida State team riddled by opt-outs is one thing. Piledriving Dabo’s QB in a star-studded matchup is another one entirely. 

OFFICIAL PICK: Georgia covers, over

Georgia wins comfortably without much fret. But Clemson steals a couple of scores to ensure the over cashes. If ETN cannot go, the Dawgs might not be able to ice the game as effectively, which could create some additional possessions. 

 

GAME 5: Virginia Tech @ Vanderbilt (+13.5) U/O 48

Hypes:

1. Diego Pavia is a gamer. Based on some of the pre-season lists made by my contemporaries, few believe the former New Mexico State signal caller can elevate the Commodores to any sense of relevance. But, he was one of the Impact Study’s top performers under pressure – an element Vanderbilt typically allows. Plus, the former all-state wrestler noticeably plays with a chip on his shoulder shedding would-be pass rushers and erasing sacks. Though an atypical archetype, his grit might be just what the ‘Doremats need to climb out of the SEC’s cellar. 

2. VA Tech’s pass game is dysfunctional. No returning QB with double-digit starts last year experienced a higher degree of disruption than Kyron Drone’s 17.8% figure. In other words, well over a sixth of his attempts resulted in either a bat, drop, hit when thrown, WR error, or throwaway. By volume, his 51 such plays finished in the power5’s bottom10. Based on the talent discrepancy, Vandy will need those miscues to ground the Hokies’ aerial attack if they wish to cover (or win) this ballgame. 

3. CJ Taylor and Langston Patterson are thumpers. Without question, they are the heart and soul of the ‘Dores’ defense. Together, their 60 combined defensive stops accounted for a fifth of the team’s total last fall. Unsurprisingly, constantly finding themselves around the ball resulted in the duo rocking Vanderbilt’s two-best PFF grades last fall. 

Gripes:

1. Little optimism exists in Vandy beating expectations this fall. Once again, they were selected to be the SEC’s worst team and sport the league’s lowest win total. While every other conference team sits inside the SP+’s top55, Lea’s lot is rank 89th to start the year. Though transfers and some new offensive ideas might help, they are projected to lose every of their conference games by at least 14 points according to that metric. And among SEC teams, only Florida faces more top35 opponents. 

2. The defense still stinks as a unit. Even with some bright spots, Vandy has failed to show competence on that side of the ball during Lea’s stint in Nashville. Over the last 3 years, the ‘Dores are the only defense in league play to surrender either first down or a score on over a third of their logged snaps. And despite ample time to mold his men to his liking, little progress has been made. Vandy’s 0.23 EPA/play allowed placed 128/133 teams last fall. 

3. This team lacks an offensive playmaker. Will Sheppard and London Humphreys would have been great keeps for this offense. But with them both on new squads this fall, there is a glaring need for someone to step up. Perhaps, a newcomer will shine. But, none of the returning volume pass catchers cracked a 50% Success Rate. And, lead back Sedrick Alexander owns the lowest Explosive Run Rate of returning ball carriers with at least 40 touches. 

The One Thing I Want to See: offensive creativity

Vanderbilt will be in no position to just line up and out-execute any of their opponents this fall. If they keep rolling out bland staples seen in every other scheme, they will likely keep seeing poor results. Hopefully, the ‘Dores will take some swings and call some bold designs in an effort to become more threatening when they have the ball. There was a clear plan bringing in Jerry Kill and his cohorts to spruce up the stale offensive operation. And, there are some clever wrinkles on tape. 

OFFICIAL PICK: VA Tech covers, under 

The Hokies are a balanced team and are well-positioned to take care of business. Both their offense and defense rank inside the nation’s top45 to start the year. Vandy doesn’t have the brawn to play small and ice the game away; and again, their offense has as much pop as soggy Rice Krispies. In the end, I think VA Tech’s playmakers bust the game open early and Vandy cannot keep up. 

GAME 6: Chattanooga @ Tennessee (-38.5) U/O 57

Hypes: 

1. James Pearce Jr is college football’s premier pass rusher. He’s a clear tone-setter and impact defender. Of course, he tallied 79 combined havoc plays and defensive stops, which is the most of any returning SECer. His 17.1% such rate is tops in the Core4. I would not be shocked if he exited this game with multiple sacks and about a half-dozen pressures. 

2. The buzz around Nico Iamaleava is starting to become more deafening than those damn cicadas. But, it seems to be more than just noise. Despite Joe Milton’s mighty arm, the Vol donned a bottom3 Explosive Pass Rate within the SEC. The program has invested in procuring additional pass catchers; so it’s fair to bet they’ll be more incendiary than last year. Even if Nico is just average capturing big gainers in Heupel’s fiery scheme, that could be enough to vault Tennessee back into contention. If he’s good, they could challenge for the top seed in the conference. 

3. Dylan Sampson runs hard and could thrive as Tennessee’s lead back. Each of the last two years, he’s easily topped the league’s YAC average. And on gap scheme runs – designs the Vols frequently feature – he’s the SEC’s premier performer. No returner boasts more power yards (526), broken tackles (32), first downs+TDs (29), or explosives (17) than the Vols’ RB1. 

Gripes:

1. The Veer and Shoot is designed to be a nuisance. And from someone who has charted every offensive snap in this conference since 2018, I can confirm that the offense is often annoying and irritating. Last year, the Vols were obliged to spam RPOs (generally Dart, Duo, or Tackle Counter with hitches or tunnel screens). With Iamaleava’s skill set, I hope to see a more open and creative approach this fall. 

2. The scheme does a good job of balancing rush concepts, but Y-Insert needs to be faded for other looks. Over the last two years, nothing has been repped more by the Vols in meaningful minutes. Yet, its Success Rate in that time comes in under 40% on a rather modest 4.9 Y/A. Too many empty calories for an offense that likes to stuff the stat sheet. 

3. Is it too much to ask for the defense to be better than average? Last year in SEC play, they finished in the middle of the pack in Success Rate, First Down+TD Rate, and Explosive Play Rate. Though much better against the run than the pass in 2023, the Vols won’t get where they want to go with just a dece overall unit. 

The One Thing I Want to See: downfield wins

With a massive edge in talent Saturday, Heupel should be scripting a banger. As aforementioned, I am sick and tired of seeing outlet screens and rinky dinky RPOs from this offense. I want to see vertical switches, shots, and splash plays. Start hot, heavy, and don’t let up. You paid for the victory, might as well get your money’s worth. 

OFFICIAL PICK: Tennessee covers, over

Since 2021, the Vols are 12-5 as home favorites, the 9th-best record in the Core4. They run away early vs the Mocs and don’t look back, scoring plenty of points in the process. 

GAME 7: Miami @ Florida (+2.5) U/O 54

Hypes:

1. Montrell Johnson is healthy and will start. While it remains to be seen just how effective he’ll be, his hard rushing will sorely be needed for the Gators to prevail as home dogs. Last year, he cracked the conference’s top8 in both YAC average and Broken Tackle Rate. At the very least, his presence might force the Canes to allocate their resources to stop the run and become vulnerable to Florida’s play action-laden pass game. 

2. Cam Ward might offer up some lollipops. He is talented and can make plays. But, he is also prone to buffering. And while his verticality has decreased, Ward pressed a little too much last year. Against his hardest foes in particular, roughly 9% of his passes could’ve been picked off. Granted, his new environment has more juice than his previous school. But I’d wager Austin Armstong’s frantic defensive approach will gun to get Ward off-schedule and aim to create takeaways.

3. The Gators have some dynamos after the catch. Other than Oregon, no other team returns a pair of volume receivers that averaged at least 8.0 yards after the catch. Trey Wilson was commonly used a gadget behind the line; and despite his youth, brought about a good level of success. Arizona State transfer Elijah Badger has forced 51 missed tackles over the last two years. And his 40% clip from last year was among the 10-best in college football.  

Gripes:

1. Graham Mertz must become a more threatening passer. I have tried to be the town cryer relaying the fact that he unabashedly became the conference’s premier Checkdown Charlie. Despite owning the league’s top Completion%, he donned one of the worst downfield Uncatchable Pass Rates. In fact, no SECer was worse in that regard when targeting over 15 yards beyond the line. Ultimately, Mertz tended to focus short and avoid risk. Whether that was due to coaching or him turtling up on his own accord is overly moot. Point blank: Florida won’t beat expectations if Mertz is nothing more than a game manager that peppers opponents underneath. He must show more zeal and generate more potency. 

2. The secondary cannot be burnt toast. There’s optimism the addition of Asa Turner and the emergence of Devin Moore will result in this unit being pretty good. But, one would be a fool to dismiss last year’s 0.21 EPA/pass that finished ranked in the triple-digits; especially with the fact one of Florida’s starting CBs allowed a nearly 11.0 Yards/Target last fall. 

3. Pass rush production will be a key characteristic to monitor for Florida’s defense. Last year, Princely Umanmielen accounted for 24.1% of the Gators’ pressures, which was the largest share by a single player in the SEC. Obviously with him transferring away, that’s a huge blow to this defense. And, only one Week1 starter along the defensive front donned an above-average Pressure Rate in 2023.

The One Thing I Want to See: an aggressive Graham Mertz

Florida needs to take chances. With the schedule they face, the Gators won’t accomplish much this season if their primary offensive objective is to log fewer mistakes than opponents. The roster is not good enough to ice folks out. They must increase their margin of error, and the best way to do that is for Mertz to grip it and rip it more often. In this analyst’s opinion, one of his best showings was the second half of the South Carolina game, when he hunted for downfield gains to complete a comeback. 

OFFICIAL PICK: Miami covers, under

I think both teams show some early jitters. But in the end, Miami’s talent will get them over the hump to win by about 10. With some concerns regarding the Gators’ OL, the Canes’ defensive front ought to tilt the scales in their favor and keep Florida’s offense uncomfortable for the majority of the contest. 

 

GAME 8: Colorado State @ Texas (-32) U/O 60

Hypes:

1. Quinn Ewers is one of college football’s best passers outside the pocket. Even his hardest opponents over the last two years have failed to curb his knack for finding completions on the move. In back-to-back Impact studies, Ewers has led his peers in Adjusted Completion% while also seeing his Success, First Down+TD, and Interceptable Pass Rates comfortably finish above the group average. Plus, his 64% raw Accuracy% beat the Impact standard by 15 percentage points.

2. Kelvin Banks Jr looks to be college football’s premier pass blocker. No returning Core4 bookend sports a higher PFF Pass Block Efficiency score or Win Rate than Texas’ tremendous tackle. On average, he only surrendered one pressure for every 100 pass sets in 2023.

3. *White Goodman voice* – Bond… Golden… Bolden. Texas’ transfer WR Cerebus is dangerous and versatile. And like Globo Gym’s big dogs, they’ll greatly help take pressure away from the Longhorn’s QB. Sark has found success installing impact transfers in the past, and I’m anxious to see how he uses this lot. 

Gripes:

1. Ewers’ passing profile has red flags. In back-to-back Impact studies, Ewers has failed to show he can consistently throw optimal passes without scheme help. All of his ball placement metrics – Uncatchable%, Adjusted Completion%, Accuracy%, Depth Adjusted Accuracy%, and Interceptable% – when clean inside the pocket and not targeting screens, RPOs, or play actions fell below the group average. Without the scheme facilitating his job or creating gimme completions, Ewers seems to be a passer who succeeds despite a flawed process. 

2. Tory Horton will be a problem. He’s 6’3, lean, and thirsty to nab pick plays. In many people's minds, he's the top G5 WR. He’s topped 1,100 yards and a 2.7 Yards/Route run each of the last two years. Erasing his impact will be one of Texas’ top priorities. But, I still think he’ll do his thing and manage to make a few sizzle plays. 

3. Will CJ Baxter’s injury cause Sark to tweak his playcalling? From all accounts, the Longhorns are ready to rock with the next man up. But despite a talented, youthful stable of ball carriers, Sark’s best backs are both burly and full of burst. Texas OL should manage to open up a good amount of holes. But, I wonder if anyone is capable of consistently knocking over phone booths, shedding potential takedowns, and adding value after contact. 

The One Thing I Want to See: domination in the trenches

Texas, you now have a SEC-caliber OL. Use it like a blunt object. The Longhorns should easily manage to push, mash, and maul the Rams all the way back to the Centennial State. 

OFFICIAL PICK: Texas covers, under

Texas does what it wants with its talent and size advantage. But I think the run game bleeds extra possession off the clock and the over fails to cash. 

 

GAME 9: Old Dominion @ S. Carolina (-21) U/O 52

Hypes:

1. Lanorris Sellers has all the tools to succeed in this league. He’s big, strong, and fast. Plus, folks love his recs specs aesthetic. Though the offense has a flimsy foundation, he still raises his unit’s ceiling. And if the Gamecocks are to beat expectations, he’ll likely be the main catalyst as to why. 

2. Nyck Harbor is one of the freakiest players in college football. Along with his blazing track speed at 6 ‘5, 235, he showed nice ball skills in his limited showings last year. Despite only 22 targets, he cracked the SEC’s top10 in “creation yards” – or instances where a pass catcher goes above and beyond to complete the attempt. I’m expecting a big breakout and it starts Saturday. 

3. TJ Sanders and Tonka Hemmingway both cracked the top16 among Power5 defensive interiors in Impact plays/game last fall. Their ability to push foes back and disrupt offenses resulted in South Carolina seeing the 2nd-best Pressure Rate and top Turnover-Worthy Play Rate against SEC competition. They’re one of the most underrated defensive duos in college football. And, I expect more to become more aware of their set of skills moving forward. 

Gripes:

1. Shane Beamer has yet to coach a good OL at South Carolina; or even a decent one. Injuries and hodgepodge lineups aside, his unit’s rush yard before contact average and Pressure Rate have worsened three-straight years. Amongst SEC offenses, the team’s cushion has placed no better than 2nd-worst under his watch. Moreover, they have placed inside the bottom3 allowing hurries 2/3 seasons. With all that in mind, it’s hardly a shock the Cocks have been one of the SEC’s best offense at moving backwards as of late. 

2. Old Dominion was pretty good vs the run and forcing 3rd downs last year. While finishing above the national average in EPA/play on early downs, their figure against all runs was the 6th-best in college football. They did lose some key players, but ODU will still have their main man in the middle in Jason Henderson, who is a stop machine himself. That’s not exactly welcomed news considering the questions surrounding SC’s OL. 

3. Over the last two years, roughly 28% of Spencer Rattler’s throws targeted behind the line of scrimmage - one of the highest mark’s in the SEC. But whether a screen, RPO outlet, checkdown, or otherwise, these attempts weren’t too fruitful ala a 37% Success Rate. Even with sour line play forcing this approach, the Cocks need to be more vertical. 

The One Things I Want to See: Improved OL play

Not to drive the point into the ground; but if the Gamecocks don’t tremendously improve upfront, they won’t go bowling this year. While recruiting wins might allow Shane Beamer to stay on, posting back-to-back losing seasons at this stage in his tenure is hardly the best look. No pressure – pun intended. 

OFFICIAL PICK: South Carolina covers, under

Though a flawed team, South Carolina is still more talented than the Monarchs. The young gun will look to have fun and be successful getting his weapons the ball. And, the defense will stifle a poorly rated adversary in a solid, though not sexy, performance. 

 

GAME 10: E. Kentucky @ Mississippi State (-24.5) U/O 60

Hypes:

1. The Veer and Shoot offense should give the Bulldogs a puncher’s chance this season. In recent years, Tennessee, Ole Miss, USF, and TCU have all punched above their belt riding this scheme. Wide splits, balanced rush looks against light boxes, and vertical options that test secondaries are all great tactics that have helped many become believers in its effectiveness to even out matchups. Despite lacking premier (or equal) talent for the majority of their games, the scheme should expand MSU’s margin of error. 

2. The OL isn’t too shabby and should be one of this team’s stronger units. Three starters were honored as top200 transfers by On3, with Ethan Miner and Makylan Pounders ranking in the top60 thanks to their pass block prowess. Yes, the right side is composed of unproven vets and there will be early mistakes across the unit. But based on the rest of the roster, solace can be had owning a fairly good front. 

3. EKU has never beaten a Power5 team, and that’s not going to begin now. Even with lowered expectations this fall, Miss State should exit Week 1 with a winning record. The Bulldogs three-main wideouts are all coming off seasons with lofty Yards/Catch clips. And while there are some reservations about their effectiveness against conference foes, they’ve all previously shown to be dynamic options against lesser competition. The Colonels simply don’t have the juice to keep up. 

Gripes:

1. There’s a fair case to be made that Miss State has the SEC’s worst defense. While the focus was on the offense scoring loads of highlights in the spring game, I couldn’t help but notice that hardly anyone appeared to be a capable coverageman. Following a season where they finished ranked 102nd in EPA/pass as a defense, that’s a big ole red flag. The unit lacks a go-to playmaker, and sort of pass rush juice, and identity. Hopefully, some emerge over time. But in the short term, the Bulldogs will gun to win shootouts behind its aggressive offensive style. 

2. I have real concerns about Blake Shapen’s ceiling. Even with his bottomline likely being boosted by Jeff Lebby’s play calling, he lacks exciting physical tools. When pressured, he easily can get knocked out of rhythm, passes go into harm’s way far too much, dropbacks tend to turn into sacks. His arm is fine but definitely ranks on the backside of conference QBs. And without guises, he’s all the more unimpressive. He can be a serviceable point guard. But with his so-so placement stats and trait limitations, I’m not anticipating a major change in that regard, even if he logs good counting stats.  

3. From where I sit, there’s hardly any positive momentum in Lebby’s year zero. Not the worst thing in the world with the aforementioned talent issue, but I would have liked to see the Bulldogs be a little more active in the portal to make a strong first impression. And looking at the present recruiting class, there’s still loads of ground to make up. Every other SEC program sports a top32 crop per On3, except Vanderbilt and Miss State. That can quickly change, but I’m not sure where immediate positive inertia will come from. 

The One Thing I Want to See: defensive stops

Again, the Bulldogs will win or lose games thanks to their offense. But in a favorable matchup, I’d like to see MSU’s SEC size take it to the small directional school and limit their scoring opportunities. When presented a wide open layup, they need to attack the cup and finish the try. Can’t brick the bunnies. After all, it’s not like they’ll have many tossups next month. 

OFFICIAL PICK: Miss State covers, under

EKU might force a low-scoring affair early on, but Miss State eventually pulls away after halftime aided by a few explosives and the Colonels’ own self-inflicted wounds. The program has been somewhat reliable as a home favorite since the pandemic. 

 

GAME 11: W. Kentucky @ Alabama (-31.5) U/O 59.5

Hypes: 

1. Jalen Milroe’s playmaking will make the Tide a playoff contender. Along with being the most vertically-inclined passer to hit the conference in recent memory, he’s also a terrific ball carrier on designed runs. Among SEC returners, his Success, First Down+TD and Explosive Rush Rates all rank inside the conference’s top3. 

2. The interior OL is the nation’s best. Tyler Booker, Parker Brailsford, and Jaeden Roberts all rank inside On3’s top10 most impactful at the position. No other team has all three of theirs inside the top50. 

3. Alabama joins Iowa as the only defense to start the year with two top25 Impact linebackers and safeties. Though a lot of the focus this off-season has been on the offense, the defense still has dudes who can make a difference. And the SP+ appears to agree. It ranks the Tide with the 8th-best defense ahead of Saturday. 

Gripes:

1. Who will emerge as the defense’s stud rusher? Even with quality parts still on that side of the ball, losing Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell to the NFL presents a challenge to replicate their pass rush production. Together, the pair accounted for about 44% of Alabama’s total pressures last fall. 

2. Kayden Proctor has upside, but he was one of college football’s worst pass blockers last fall. Most true freshmen are. So while there is hope he’ll continue to round into form with more reps, another subpar effort from the Tide’s blindside will undercut Alabama from having a solid run. 

3. Whether the goal was to “establish it”, set the tone, or minimize the exposure to a new starting QB, Alabama was hardly shy turning to the ground to start a set of downs last year. In standard time, only 3 other conference offenses logged a lower such Pass Rate than the Tide’s 41.5% clip. But even with some of Milroe’s inconsistencies, passing proved to be a far better way to move the ball and avoid 3rd downs. The run can still be a key cog in the operation, but it should take a backseat to the pass game; especially since DeBoer’s offenses have a knack to dropback. 

The One Thing I Want to See: more first down passing

Seeing Alabama come out swinging would be a great way to turn the page and differentiate the DeBoer Era from Saban’s. While averaging over 2 yards more in comparison, pass plays yielded a Success Rate over 9 percentage points better than runs to start a set of downs last year– and that was without the Tide having a go-to bankable concept on which to lean. Playing a lesser foe might see the run take over after half. But the pass should be the main driver for this offense starting Saturday. 

OFFICIAL PICK: Alabama covers, over

WKU will have a couple of useful players. But the Tide simply will overwhelm the visiting Hilltoppers. Milroe will nab explosives with both his arm and legs and help Alabama burst out to a comfortable lead in no time. And with Alabama’s CBs being a little iffy, I think the over will hit. 

 

GAME 12: Furman @ Ole Miss (-42) U/O 60.5

Hypes: 

1. The Jaxson Dart Heisman Campaign begins today. Along with being a gritty rusher with a strong lower half, he has one of the featheriest operations in college football. Yes, there are some concerns that he is an offensive executive. Ole Miss’s has great affinity for deception tactics and eye candy. But, he stands to be one of the SEC’s best downfield throwers with a sturdy pass floor within structure without guises. He’s particularly lethal in the midrange game. 

2. In a league with copious impact transfer defenders, the Rebels’ crop might be the best. Highlighted by 5-star interior Walter Nolen and Princely Umanmielen (who snatched a top10 Total Pressure Rate among college edges in 2023), three other starters finished inside On3’s top200. 

3. I’m a Big fan of Ole Miss’s run scheme; 8 concepts saw at least 20 reps in meaningful minutes. And while some offenses show clear favoritism to zones or gap schemes, the Rebels weren’t shy trying out both philosophies at equal weight. Moreover, they featured “bash” (back away) runs at the highest rate in the league. With Dart’s gumption and a deep RB room, they keep defenses guessing better than anyone in the league. 

Gripes:

1. I have no clue what the plan is at running back. But I expect to see a healthy committee. Along with returning Ulysses Bentley, Ole Miss plucked four rushers out of the portal; three of them have legit experience. I can imagine UB4 will be the go-to guy. But with such a deep room, a scenario where the Rebels ride the hot hand on a game-to-game (or drive-to-drive) basis seems like a reasonable outcome.  

2. Will the OL improve at preventing contact behind the line? Nearly 28% of the team’s designed tries experienced backfield engagement in 2023. As you might suspect, the Rebels’ didn’t rank well in either rush yard before contact average or Negative Run Rate. In fact, only South Carolina turned in a higher mark than their 13% clip of the latter. But by volume, no SEC offense came close to trumping Ole Miss’s 62 losses and 129 run havocs allowed. Captain Obvious wanted me to remind you that rush yards come easier without constant obstructions in ball carriers’ paths. 

3. The run game will always drive a Lane Kiffen offense. But based on the team’s roster and last year’s returns, the Rebels ought to turn towards the skies on first downs this fall. As the most common down in football, how an offense operates in these spots generally reflects their overall makeup and effectiveness. In 2023, Ole Miss nearly doubled its Yards/Play when passing compared to running on first downs. Only LSU posted a better figure than their 10.1. Plus, the Rebels’ Passing Success Rate held a 13 point edge to its rushing counterpart. Dropping back clearly provided more juice. 

 

One Thing I Want to See: a blowout home cover

Ole Miss hasn’t been the most trusted home favorite over the last few years. Their 44% coverage rate falls into the Core4’s bottom20 since 2021. Prove you belong with the big boys, and pummel the Paladins into submission in decisive fashion. 

OFFICIAL PICK: N/A

Another 40-point spread; so no official take here. But I expect the Rebs to run hot and not stop until the final zero drops. 

 

GAME 13: Notre Dame @ Texas A&M (-3) U/O 46

Hypes:

1. Conner Weigman has some moxie. But while a good amount of his buzz comes from his play versus pressure, his intangibles have helped him sport one of the highest passing floors in the conference. Inside clean pocket without guises, Weigman has beaten standards back-to-back years. This past fall, his such Accuracy%, Uncatchable%, Interceptable%, and First Down+TD Rate all held the SEC’s gold medal. 

2. TAMU’s DL should have a clear edge in the trenches. Nic Scourton is among my top transfers this off-season  (I mean, that’s the cast for basically everyone but still); and both Shemars are top50 preseason impact players at their respective positions. For most, they’re bar-none a handful. So knowing Notre Dame will have some fresh faces in a hostile environment, the Aggies should manage to win the line of scrimmage

3. I’m excited to see what Collin Klein does with the offense. I doubt we’ll see many single-wing or QB run stuff. But his usage of movement, deception, and might helped Kansas State throw haymakers. And with blue chip talent know executing his plays, the results hope to be even grander. In case you forgot, Jimbo’s scheme was generally static and didn’t give his passers many layups relative to other SECers. 

Gripes:

1. Conner Weigman has yet to face a good collegiate defense. Over the last two years, none of his foes finished with a Top30 SP+ defense. Even last year, haters can point to the fact that half of his foes finished among the 5 worst EPA/pass units in college football. Notre Dame – led by Benjamin Morrison and Xavier Watts – definitely falls on the other end of the spectrum.

2. The OL still scares me facing Howard Cross and Rylie Mills. There’s a reason why the Aggies have started multiple QBs over the last few seasons: The line has failed to keep them clean. Their Pressure Rate Allowed has topped 40% back-to-back years. And obviously, the constant stress and punishment resulted in some injuries. Weigman knows all about that too well. Until I see them form pure pockets regularly, I cannot sign off on them.

3. Will the defense be able to slow down Mike Denbrock’s offense? Each of the last two years, LSU situationally slung the pill successfully against the Aggies. Well over half of their plays worked. And with Leonard’s ability to run, the Golden Domers will be all the more challenging to slow down. Denbrock is bound to draw up some wins, but the question sits on how large they’ll be. One big gainer could swing the outcome. 

One Thing I Want to See: good pockets

I cannot stress how important maintaining clean pockets will be to TAMU’s season. Even with some of Weigman’s good showings under the gun, exposing your golden boy to contact is just asking for trouble. And again, considering his strong play within structure, amplifying those kinds of chances ought to only lead to great things for the Aggies’ offense. 

OFFICIAL PICK: TAMU covers, under

I think highly of Riley Leonard and Mike Denbrock’s ability to orchestrate offenses. But I believe TAMU’s front will be the deciding factor. The 12th man fuels the Aggies to close out a rock fight win. 

 

GAME 14: Alabama A&M @ Auburn (-48) U/O 56.5

Hypes:

1. Auburn sorely needed an upgrade at pass catcher. And boy, War Eagle came through on that front. Despite being in less-than-stellar situations themselves, both transfer WRs Robert Lewis and Keandre Lambert-Smith turned in an above-average Yards/Route Run. The Tigers mined a blue chip that will be a day-one impact player in Freshman All-American Cam Coleman. The scheme might not ask them to do too much. But, simple can still work. At the very least, the aerial product ought to fly much better than last year’s clunker. 

2. Jarquez Hunter has consistently been one of the conference’s hardest rushers to tackle. Over the last two seasons, his YAC clips have finished inside the SEC’s top5 with a 3.8 cumulative figure. And in that time, he’s averaged one broken tackle for every third carry. A sexy pick to be an all-conference back, his zeal paired with Hugh Freeze’s run-first attack might set him up to lead the SEC in total rushing. 

3. Only 16 Power5 linebackers were more impactful on a per play basis last year than Eugene Asante. Just under 11% of his snaps resulted in either a havoc play or defensive stop. He’s not always entirely flashy. But if Auburn happens to win at least 8 ball games, their defensive green dot will be one of the major reasons for a successful season.  

Gripes: 

1. Payton Thorne is still a bit radioactive after last fall. He took sacks, struggled to execute common concepts, and failed to stand out statistically throwing the football. Though there are some silver linings on his profile – he was one of the conference’s best hitting tight windows and men along the sideline and was a worthwhile rusher – the general consensus is he isn’t a top12 QB among his SEC brethren. Even with more talent around him to potentially elevate his game, scores are keeping their sour opinions of him fresh, and I don’t blame them. 

2. It’s a little concerning that Auburn is still tinkering with the offensive line this close to gameday. Though thought to be a prototypical left tackle, Miss State trancy Percy Lewis has swapped spots with Dillon Wade and is now at guard. That is fairly interesting since Wade was Auburn’s blindside last year and fared pretty well but was pushed to guard this spring to make room. To add to the shuffling, Tyler Johnson and Bradyn Joner have also been worked into the rotation on the left side. Maybe they figure it out, but it’s clear the coaching staff isn’t pleased with everything they’ve seen so far. 

3. Hugh Freeze’s offense may play upbeat, but it isn’t particularly busy pre-snap relative to other SEC units. But kinetic motions saw the Tigers’ Yards/Attempt increased by a half-yard and their Success Rate ticked up 5 points compared to their cumulative figures. War Eagle’s Explosive Play Rate, Havoc Rate, and rush yard before contact average experienced positive gains as well. The 3-most scripted concepts (Outside Zone Reads, Inside Zone Reads, PA Bootlegs) combined for a 57% Success Rate. Good stuff! So maybe feature it a little more?

The One Thing I Want to See: an efficient Payton Thorne

The Tigers will start 2024 off playing that least-challenging opponent of the season. Thorne needs to maximize this opportunity and play a near-flawless game to build confidence and a rapport with his new pass catchers. The run game will probably still drive the bus, but Thorne cannot just be dead weight this weekend going through the motions. 

OFFICIAL PICK: N/A

The highest spread of the week; you know I am not touching that thing. 

 

GAME 15: S. Mississippi @ Kentucky (-28) U/O 50

Hypes: 

1. Deone Walker might be the most talented player to ever don the blue and white. Large and in charge, he dictates matchups, allows UK to play with undermanned boxes, and is the team’s primary source for statistical success. Only one SEC defender enters 2024 with more impact plays than his 78, which are the most of any returning Core4 interior. While it is usually safe to assume someone who ranks inside the NFL’s 95th percentile in size to be a hoss against the run (he very much is), Walker dazzles as a rusher – and even lines up at edge on later downs. What other dudes with his measurables can do that?

2. Barion Brown is the fastest player in college football. Reel Analytics clocked him reaching 22.6 mph, a mark only Xavier Worthy topped last regular season. There’s no question he’s a gamebreaker and has potential to score anytime he touches the ball… assuming he doesn’t drop it. 

3. Believe it or not, but the highest ranked SEC CB in On3’s preseason Impact Rankings hails from Kentucky. Propped up by a a couple of pick-sixes, Maxwell Hairston’s 31 combined havoc plays and defensive stops are the most of any conference returner at the position. UK’s prevalent Cover-3 style might be swapped out for more modern disguise looks. But, Hairston controls his corridor arguably better than anyone else in this conference. 

Gripes:

1. UK’s 2023 pass game was constantly grounded by blunders. For the second-consecutive season, the receivers posted a double-digit Drop Rate, the OL allowed a below-average Pressure Rate, and UK’s passers gave defenders way too many opportunities to touch the ball. All in all, Devin Leary’s 57 total “disrupted pass attempts” were the 7th-most in the power5. As the good, ole-fashioned eye test confirmed, that’s way too much for a team wishing to topple expectations. UK cannot expect to contend if that level of dysfunction is carried over into 2024. 

2. I’m not getting my hopes up regarding UK’s offensive pace. Despite some stern words about playing with more urgency, recent talk has caused that hope to pop. While it’s clear Mark Stoops doesn’t want to be dead last in plays/game for the second-straight year, he also made it be known he also doesn’t want to put the pedal to the metal. Ultimately, the Cats will likely operate marginally faster but still finish well in the back-third nationally in this regard. 

3. If Gavin Wimsat has to play more than three snaps a game, UK probably won’t be good. Nothing against him as a runner. But opponents will know the drill when he comes into the game and will be on the lookout to snuff designed carries. Going off the last half-decade of data within this conference, two QB sets or “run special” wildcat sets with two potential ball carries generate more disappointment than glory. A team shouldn’t explore that route unless they cannot run the ball conventionally, which might be the case for the Cats with a banged up Chip Trayanum and clouds around the OL. There is always an exception to the rule. But, Bad Take Brooks feels uneasy about the premise of UK needing his services to bolster the run game.

The One Thing I Want to See: UK to win the explosive play battle

Though the main goal of camp was to find more consistency on offense, UK should be looking to break the game open with big plays. Complimentary football aside, the Cats cannot play small and allow an inferior opponent to hang around. The BBN craves to see some Brock Vandagriff dingers and the Big Blue wall to mash the Golden Eagles until their purple. 

OFFICIAL PICK: Kentucky covers, under

UK does have some slow starts in recent memory. But as a home favorite, they’ve covered 10/16 chances since 2021, which is a top20 mark in the Core4 in that time. Brown will be the player of the game. But, the Cats will cover the 4-TD spread behind a total team performance. 

 

GAME 16: LSU @ USC (+4) U/O 64

Hypes: 

1. LSU has the best OL in the conference led by the best tackle tandem in the nation. Both Will Campbell and Emery Jones top8 bookends in On3’s Impact Rankings largely due to their skills in both facets. The Duo earned +70 grades both as pass and run blockers last fall. Taking a step back to shout out the whole line, only UGA turned in a lower Pressure Rate within the SEC last year. And the Tigers will have a great shot at knocking the Dawgs off the top spot by year's end.

2. LSU has the best WR tandem in the conference. Sorry, Ole Miss. But, the Bayou Bengals once again will have the league's most talented WR room. Kyren Lacy logged the best Explosive Target Rate in SEC StatCat history and CJ Daniels championed the highest Yards/Route Run of any collegiate pass catcher. While LSU might try to become more balanced with increased multi-TE sets, these fabulous wideouts ensure the pass will still be LSU’s primary way to move the ball.

3. USC still sucks at defense. Outside of their two safeties – both of which are transfers – the Trojans are still raw on that side of the ball. There is some talent in the wings, and new defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn could whip them into shape. But forgive me for fading a Lincoln Riley defense. For what it’s worth, the SP+ has them ranked 83rd to start the year. 

Gripes:

1. Unfortunately, LSU’s defense is also suspect at this point in time. Outside of Harold Perkins, every level of the Tigers’ defense is a potential liability. No use beating a dead horse and bringing up the stats from Matt House’s final defense. But, this matchup has the makings of a good, ole fashioned Week 1 shootout even if the analytics look upon this group with starry eyes. 

2. QB runs can no longer rosescent the run game. When including scrambles, Jayden Daniels was responsible for 49% of the team’s explosive carries, 43% of the yard after contact, and 42% of broken tackles. Tiger RBs saw less than 15% of their runs top 10 yards, which would’ve tracked to place inside the league’s bottom5 – well worse off than LSU’s league-leading 23.7% clip behind Daniels touches. Frankly, Nuss isn’t much of a threat outside of structure and will not command as much “gravity” from rallying defenders. 

3. Nussmeier needs to limit his number of biffed passes. Each of the last two seasons, his Uncatchable Pass Rate has topped 20%. For reference, the conference average is about 18%. And though he’s a totally different style passer, Daniels’ clip was an SEC-best 12.8% in 2023. Nuss doesn’t have to deliver Heisman-level efficiency in order for the Tigers to thrive. But, it’s a fair ask to not be a subpar passer. 

    

   The One Things I Want to See: LSU's defense plays with a pulse

   USC will get theirs. But, the Tigers need to show some fight and not be pushovers. Make the Trojans earn their points and not provide easy scores to space. Another year of traffic cones in the secondary or trash cans in the trenches is unacceptable.

    

   OFFICIAL PICK: USC covers, over

   With a 4-point margin, Bad Take Brooks thinks USC will cover but LSU will win a high-scoring affair this Sunday.

 

WEEK 0 All-SEC StatCat Team

FIRST TEAM OFFENSE:

QB: Carson Beck, Georgia

RB: Trevor Ettiene, Georgia

WR1: Luther Burden III, Missouri

WR2: Tre Harris, Ole Miss

WR3: Isaiah Bond, Texas

TE: Mason Taylor, LSU

OT1: Kelvin Banks Jr, Texas

OG1: Tate Ratledge, Georgia

OC: Parker Brailsford, Alabama

OG2: Tyler Booker, Alabama

OT2: Will Campbell, LSU

FIRST TEAM DEFENSE:

Edge1: James Pearce Jr, Tennessee

Interior1: Deone Walker, Kentucky

Interior2: Waler Nolen, Ole Miss

Edge2: Mykell Williams, Georgia

LB1: Harold Perkins, LSU

LB2: Deonte Lawson, Alabama

CB1: Maxwell Hairston, Kentucky

CB2: Daylen Everette, Georgia

S1: Malaki Starks, Georgia

S2: Malachi Moore, Alabama

Flex: Trey Amos, Ole Miss

SECOND TEAM OFFENSE:

QB: Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss

RB: Jarquez Hunter, Auburn

WR1: Barion Brown, Kentucky

WR2: CJ Daniels, LSU

WR3: Kyren Lacy, LSU

TE: Cade Prieskorn, Ole Miss

OT1: Earnest Greene, Georgia

OG1: Miles Frazier, LSU

OC: Jake Majors, Texas

OG2: Jaeden Roberts, Alabama

OT2: Emery Jones, LSU

SECOND TEAM DEFENSE:

Edge1: Nic Scourton, TAMU

Interior1: TJ Sanders, S. Carolina

Interior2: Jared Ivey, Ole Miss

Edge2: Princely Umanmielen, Ole Miss

LB1: Danny Stutsman, Oklahoma

LB2: Taurean York, TAMU

CB1: Jayvion Cole, Texas

CB2: Malik Muhammed, Texas

S1: Billy Bowman, Oklahoma

S2: Keon Sabb, Alabama

Flex: CJ Taylor, Vanderbilt