2020 Vision: Ole Miss

The little things did in the Matt Luke Era at Ole Miss. Though he oversaw an offense first known for its passing potency and later its electric run game as his tenure progressed, few interim coaches stay on for long; even fewer get a contract extension. Of course, the way the Egg Bowl culminated was enough for Mississippi brass to take things into a new direction. For the level of program that Ole Miss is, Lane Kiffin is as good as a hire a school of that caliber can make on the open market. With a selling point to coach in college football's premier league and a chance to mold some young play makers, the Rebels hope it all will align just right as they look to recapture on-field glory. Per ESPN's SP+ Ratings, Ole Miss enters 2020 as top41 units on both sides of the ball. But playing a rigorous conference-only slate likely will result in a lackluster debut in Oxford for Joey Freshwater. Still, that doesn't mean the Rebels can't play spoiler or take a step in the right direction. In this preview, you'll see where their key returners stand relative to other SECers offensively, important stats Ole Miss must maintain or improve year-over-year in league play, and how its schedule stacks up per the SP+ Ratings.  

Passers:

Much of Ole Miss’s inconsistency as an offense last year fell on the shoulders of its two passers. John Rhys Plumlee owns the worst Success Rate, Accuracy%, Uncatchable Pass Rate, and Interceptable Pass Rate of the nine SEC returners with at least 80 attempts. Despite his obvious speed and highlight plays on his resume, he offers the lowest passing floor within the SEC. Corral is the better passer but some of his best throws came when he was thrusted into the game to spark a sputtering offense or lead a last minute drive. All in all, his results were middling relative to others coming back for 2020 within the conference. 

In SEC play, Plumlee stayed near the bottom of the barrel across the board as far as aerial metrics are concerned. There isn’t legitimately any passing stat I can point to and say he’s a capable to play this position moving forward no matter how tantalizing it is to put his quickness in the backfield. As a designed runner, however, his 6.08 yards/carry is top5 and his 44.2% Rushing Success Rate is top10 amongst SEC returners. But his 25% First Down+Touchdown Rate is below average. Plus, Plumlee's overall EPA/play among the 18 SEC QBs with at least 100 touches fell outside the top10. 

Though Corral is mobile and saw plenty of RPOs, he was more inclined to whip the ball around. As potent as Plumlee was running the rock, Corral’s 8.48 Yards/Pass and 36.1% First Down+Touchdown Rate easily trump the jitterbug’s numbers within SEC play. But of course, passing the ball generally is far more fruitful than pounding the ground. For what its worth, Corral’s 43% Passing Success Rate versus conference opponents looks up to Plumlee’s rushing clip and is 6th-best amongst returners. But Corral's EPA/play is top5 among returning SEC QBs and bests Plumlee's. Corral is the safer choice if you want to don a typical passing game moving forward. Still, I can get why plenty of folks don’t want to hear that and are all in on Plumlee’s homerun ability as a ball carrier. 

Catchers:

Any passing game is likely to regress losing wideouts like DK Metcalf, AJ Brown, and DeMarkus Lodge in one offseason. Plus as skilled as Rich Rodriguez is at scheming the ground game, his pass patterns didn’t help an overly underwhelming group do much damage. Ole Miss became a tunnel offense for Elijah Moore, who predominantly operated from the slot. Quick outs, slants, rubs, and rolls litter his 2019 resume. The former two composed 38% of his targeted routes. 

Moore owned the SEC’s highest target share by 5 percentage points in league play. By volume, his 77 targets were the fourth most in those spots. The high usage was more of a result of Ole Miss not having other options to threaten secondaries consistently rather than Moore’s ability. Despite the love he received, his 7.31 Yards/Target and 41.6% Catching Success Rate finished below the conference average in SEC play. Though other Rebels were hindered by poor Uncatchable Target Rates, his clip is the 10th-best ahead of 2020. His output certainly doesn’t excite, but Ole Miss doesn’t have many worthwhile wideouts in its ranks. By his volume output, however, Moore one of the more productive returners in league play.

Jonathon Mingo, Dontario Drummond, and Braylon Sanders will rotate on the outside. The latter two each saw their Yards/Target crack double digits but saw their Catching Success Rates fall in the low-forty’s. Both were mostly downfield threats as their average depths of target eclipsed 13 yards. Half of Gregory’s catches went for 20-plus with two of them being creations. Only 11 of his 127 yards came after the catch. Though he logged some deep attempts, 47% of Sanders’ targeted routes were either a slant or a hitch. 

Mingo was one of the least efficient targets in the SEC last year. Over a quarter of his targets were charted as uncatchable. It’s awfully hard to offset that kind of thing. No returning SECer owns a lower Yards/Target than Mingo’s 4.95 clip or 23.8% Success Rate against conference opponents with at least 20 tries. As high as Sanders’ and Drummond’s ADOT was, only Osiris Mitchell’s stands to be more than Mingo’s 16.0 figure amongst returners. 

Tylan Knight and transfer tight end Kenny Yeboah will round out the passing attack from the inside. Neither have stats that will create much optimism, but new guidance could see them find quality production. Simply put, this passing attack needs a boost. Lane Kiffin and offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby should be up to the task of finding more success through the air. If the Rebels run back a bottom6 Passing Success Rate for another year, they probably won't make much noise in 2020. 

Rushers:

While Plumlee gets plenty of acclaim thanks to his legs, Ole Miss’s sophomore backs are one of the best tandems in the conference. All three will enter 2020 with top5 Yards/Carry amongst SEC returners in league play. Snoop Conner and Jerrion Ealy both had middling Success Rates in these spots, but each owned an Explosive Run Rate better than Plumlee’s; both of their clips are top6. 

Ealy will likely be the starter due to his knack dealing with defensive engagement. His 4.68 rush yards after contact clip held the SEC’s top spot within league play last year. But, that was more than just a byproduct of a couple of long breakaways. Ealy consistently was a hassle to tackle for conference foes as his 38.5% Broken Tackle Rate was top5. Looking only at running backs, his 42.5% Success Rate in these spots is 5th-best entering 2020. Much of this contact was a result to defenses honing in on Ole Miss’s run-first approach. 48% of Ealy’s conference carries went for less than 3 yards. Without his ability to bust out of tackles, his outlook would be far less optimistic moving forward. 

Conner experienced the lowest rush yards before contact average of Ole Miss's three main ball carriers. His 2.22 fell below the SEC average in league play. But like Ealy, Conner was pretty good at making things happen after defensive engagement. His 3.86 YAC average is top5 entering 2020. But he was far less skilled at shedding defenders consistently. Conner's Broken Tackle Rate was much closer to the conference mean. While his Negative Run Rate was a third of his backfield mates’, only South Carolina’s Mons Denson saw more carries result in a gain between 0 and 3 yards than his 62.1% clip in SEC play. As freshmen, both he and Ealy held their own versus some of the best defenses around. Still, Ealy looks to be the lead rusher based on his 2019 output with Conner being the beta back. 

Glancing at the O-Line:

The Plumlee element makes Ole Miss’s line a hard unit to evaluate. Ole Miss was one of the handful of teams who loved trotting out in empty formations. No only did this spread out opponents, give presnap keys on where to attack, and put their lineman on islands, but five-wide sets also gave Plumlee plenty of chances to do magic in the open field. Q-runs also distorted this units rush yards before contact average. With an additional blocker or designs that call for QBs to run towards space, cushion is easier to come by than forging lanes against condensed fronts otherwise. All in all, Ole Miss’s 2.60 YBC clip was the 4th-best in SEC play last year.

Overall, Ole Miss surrendered a pressure on 34.4% of their passes against SEC opponents but their 1.69% Sack Rate was the conference low. Having mobile quarterbacks without question helped the Rebels dodge plenty of pass rushers and extend plays. I think it’s fairly likely with two new bookends in the mix that Ole Miss will post a Pressure Rate in the back half of the SEC. With the variables involved on broken plays, pressures, or when a quarterback ventures outside the pocket, I’m estimating Ole Miss suffers from more sacks on average this fall. But quick completions within structure could help the Rebels from suffering a misstep in that department. Quotes from Ole Miss's camp indicate they want to lean into getting the ball to their play makers in space. That could mean a few things, but I'm inclined to translate that as more screens. Both Plumlee and Corral sported bottom3 Screen Rates within the SEC last fall. Though it remains to be seen how exactly Kiffin will utilize his players, returning his two guards is at least better than nothing even if starting center Eli Johnson opted out. From left to right, their starters project to be Nick Broeker, Royce Newman, Bryce Ramsey, Ben Brown, and Jeremy James. 

Key Offensive Team Stats in SEC Play:

The most important stats for Ole Miss to maintain against SEC defenses are its Explosive Play Rate and Touchdown Rate. Both cracked the top5 within conference play last year. And though the Rebel’s certainly need to find more consistency, maintaining their threat to bust a big one on any given snap will give them a fighter’s chance. It bears mentioning, however, Ole Miss held a top5 Yards/Play but ranked 8th in Success Rate. Winners of the explosive play battle have won over 75% of their games the last two years involving at least one SEC team. And it should go without saying, Touchdowns are more valuable than long drives that result in a field goal. 

The most important stats for Ole Miss to improve against conference defenses are its Pass Havoc and 3rd Down Success Rate. I already mentioned the high volume of pressures Ole Miss experienced last fall, which undeniably had a detrimental effect on their passers. Over the course of the year, about 10% of their passes were interceptable with 16% altered by defenders in some way. Versus SEC defenses and when under pressure, the latter remained consistent but their INTA Rate topped 23%. No team will survive the rigors of an all-SEC slate with nearly a quarter of its passes being turnover-worthy. A bottom4 3rd Down Success Rate also made their margin of error smaller. Barely a third of their do or die downs resulted in success within SEC play last year. For a team hoping to steal a game or two, that clip must improve. 

Key Defensive Team Stats in SEC Play:

Ole Miss might have improved via ESPN’s SP+ defensively from 2018 to 2019 but they remained overly one of the worst within SEC play. They finished with a bottom5 or worse Success Rate, Yards/Play allowed, Explosive Play Rate allowed, TD Rate, Takeaway Rate, 3-and-Out Rate and Yards/Game. They were decent at generating sacks, but too much inept play soured their profile. There's no denying replicating that lone strength is at least a step in the right direction. With the 7th-best Pressure Rate and 6th-best Sack Rate altering pockets, Ole Miss's best chance to upend opponents defensively will be on the zeal of their pass rush. 

Still for what it's worth, the initial SP+ Ratings had them positioned as the 40th-best defense to start 2020. Ole Miss isn’t equipped to win many shootouts, but improving the Takeaway Rate as well as their bottom4 3rd Down Success Rate might help the Rebels stay within striking distance and snatch victories from their easier opponents if not a major upset against one of the big boys. Maybe if they can maintain their adequate pass rush, quarterbacks might be hurried or throw more inaccurate, which could result in potential turnovers. Since 3rd Down is a passing down, a timely sack or hurry could allow the Rebels to improve in spots where they need it the most for a decent season. 

Mississippi's 2020 Schedule: 

Ole Miss will enter the season with the 5th-easiest schedule per ESPN's SP+. But in actuality, it's a fairly average slate all else considered. Before their bye week, the Rebels will host three of the conference's top six teams, all of which rank 11th or better in the SP+, but get to visit the worst team in each division. While those five games have pretty obvious outcomes, the Kentucky game in Week 2 could be the tweener game that could decide whether or not the Rebels can top their under/over 4 win mark set by Vegas. The Wildcats are projected to win by about a touchdown and stands to be the most manageable deficit on Ole Miss's slate. Likewise while road games against LSU and Texas A&M are probably losses, the Egg Bowl could generate a typical highly contested game. Of the four games in which they're favored, three have projected margins of less than 8 points, which includes their matchup against the Bulldogs. The SP+ projects them to win against Vanderbilt, Arkansas, South Carolina, and Mississippi State as of today. 

In league play last year, the Rebels were largely a subpar defense. This unit will need massive improve as its set to face four top15 offenses in the SP+. These games will likely be ugly. Still, Ole Miss also is gifted playing three of the four-worse conference offenses. Coincidentally, all three are opponents that the SP+ favors the Rebels. Though the Rebels will start the year ranked 41st on defense, only three other conference defense stand to be worse on that side of the ball. 

Their offense doesn't start out too much higher in the rankings. Paired with that muted projection, more than half of Ole Miss's opponents fall inside the top30. Playing three top20 defenses the first five weeks is tough. So is closing versus three top25 defenses over the last month. Only three teams on their schedule rock defensive ratings that rank worse at where their offensive clip sits. Two of them are the obvious candidates, but the other is rival Mississippi State. 

Before I soldier on, I probably should explain what the SP+ Ratings are a little bit. Defining the SP+ in a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. ESPN's Bill Connelly's metric is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. That is important to remember. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise. Using the initial ratings, let's check out how Ole Miss's schedule stacks up.

WEEK 1:

Florida @ Ole Miss: Projected Margin Florida by 13

Florida is a rough matchup for Lane Kiffin’s first game guiding the Rebels. Though it remains to be seen on how balanced Ole Miss’ offense will be, Florida’s defense was one of the best in SEC play at limiting explosive gains in both facets. Failing to win the big play battle will prevent the Rebels from contending against Florida’s methodical passing game barring turnovers. Ole Miss sported a bottom5 Defensive Pass Success Rate with the 2nd-worst Explosive Pass Rate versus conference offenses. On the other side of the ball, Florida was top4 in both aspects. Of course, the Gators had a constipated run game last year. But, Ole Miss is as good…or bad…as anyone for Florida’s line to build confidence against. The Rebels finished with the 2nd-worst Defensive Run Success Rate in SEC play last year and project to be the 3rd-worst defense the Gators face. 

WEEK 2:

Ole Miss @ Kentucky: Projected Margin Kentucky by 8

For both teams, this is one of the more winnable games on their schedule. From UK’s perspective, this is one of four of their games with a projected margin of 8 or less. Ole Miss is only favored in two games. They’ll gladly take their chances versus a seldom one-score gap. Both were the two most run-heavy offenses last year. Who knows how much each plans to run in 2020. But defensively, both Ole Miss and Kentucky were terrible stopping their opponent’s ground game. UK had the 4th-worst and Ole Miss had the 2nd-worst run defense per Success Rate with each having Yards/Run allowed clips 9th or worse in SEC play. This game features four of the top5 returning rushers in Yards/Run against conference defenses. This could be set up for a different kind fo shootout than fans are accustomed to. The Wildcats have the edge in the SP+ thanks to preferable ratings on both sides of the ball. 

WEEK 3:

Alabama @ Ole Miss: Projected Margin Alabama by 18

Alabama is the easy favorite going into this one. Ole Miss sits outside the SP+ top35 on both sides of the ball. But, Alabama isn’t infallible. One of the Tide’s weak spots last year was stopping the run. In SEC play, they finished in the bottom5 in Yards/Carry and ranked 7th in Defensive Rush Success Rate and Explosive Run Rate. If the Rebels lean into the run, maybe they can bust some big ones and keep it close. Plus, I’m sure Lane Kiffin has some fun stuff planned for his former boss. That said, it’s ludicrous to think Nick Saban won’t have a plan ready for stuffing Ole Miss’s one-dimensional offense with extra time to prepare…especially with Joey Freshwater on the opposite sideline. Offensively, the Tide should roll against a unit that was bottom5 in Defensive Explosive Play Rate, Touchdown Rate, and 3-and-Out Rate in league play last year. 

WEEK 4:

Ole Miss @ Arkansas: Projected Margin Ole Miss by 8

Being one of the few games the Rebels are favored the win by the SP+, Ole Miss cannot take Arkansas lightly. Luckily for the Hogs, they get to face Lane Kiffin's bunch in between their games versus Alabama and Auburn. So there’s a little bit of a trap game element that could favor the Razorbacks. This game presents as one of their best opportunities to win. Not only is it one of their smaller projected deficits, but it’s also at home. On both sides of the ball, Ole Miss has the edge per the initial ratings and carry-over stats from last season. So there’s no reason to overthink this one at this point in time even if the Rebels schedule presents an opening for Arkansas to strike. 

WEEK 5:

Auburn @ Ole Miss: Projected Margin Auburn by 9

Ole Miss’s strength is running the ball. Or at least, it was last year. Lane Kiffin might be able to manufacture a serviceable passing game by this point in the season but it’s no guarantee. It would, however, be enormously beneficial for the Rebels to have one in place by this matchup. Though Auburn lost key members along their front, the Tigers’ Defensive Rushing Success Rate led the conference. The Tigers were also top3 in Early Down Success Rate and Explosive Run Rate. This lines up to Ole Miss playing a good amount of 3rd Downs where passing efficiency is vital. Auburn has the edge on both sides of the ball, but their guard could be let down. The following week, War Eagle hosts the defending national champs. 

WEEK 6:

Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt: Projected Margin Ole Miss by 16.5

This game stands as Vanderbilt’s best chance to win a ball game in 2020 as far as the SP+ is concerned. With its lowest projected margin of defeat of the season and being at home, Vandy will have to hope its defense comes to play in this one. Ole Miss should be looking to shove it down the Commodores’ throat as Vandy was downright disastrous against the run last season in SEC play. But if the ‘Dores can hold their own and force some 3-and-Outs, Ole Miss’s defensive play versus conference opponents doesn’t slam the door shut on this matchup. Even for a seemingly inept offense like Vandy’s, fruitful gains are more prone to occur against a unit that sported a bottom3 Defensive Success Rate, Takeaway Rate, and Explosive Pass Rate against SEC foes last year. But don’t kid yourself; Ole Miss is clearly the favorite. 

WEEK 7:

BYE WEEK

WEEK 8:

South Carolina @ Ole Miss: Projected Margin Ole Miss by 2

South Carolina visiting Ole Miss will sneakily be one of the better games this season as far as the SP+ is concerned. The metric thinks the Rebels will win by less than a field goal. This slim favoritism is due to the implied home field advantage. The league schedule favors Ole Miss as well. South Carolina will be coming off a game versus Texas A&M while Ole Miss exits its bye week. Both teams have limited chances with single-possession margins of victory across their schedules. You know each will desperately want this one. For over/under win totals, this could decide which side of the line these team fall on. South Carolina’s defense stopped the run better than the pass, but they were mostly just okay at it. After all, their rush yards before contact average was the 6th-worst in SEC play. But if there was any defense on South Carolina’s schedule where its toothless offense could find a spark, Ole Miss’s would fit the bill. The Rebels surrendered the conference’s 2nd-worst Explosive Pass Rate against conference foes last year. Over the past two seasons involving a SEC team, the game winner won the explosive play battle 75% of the time. Ole Miss’ speed should be able to create some big gainers for the Rebels, but I’m not sure who is capable of providing splash plays for the Gamecocks before Week 1. 

WEEK 9:

Ole Miss @ Texas A&M: Projected Margin Texas A&M by 15.5

This isn’t a significantly sexy game as Texas A&M is favored by over two touchdowns and owns substantial edges on both sides of the ball. But, Ole Miss could have opportunities on the ground if the Aggies aren’t careful. Though somewhat wishy-washy, the Rebels sported the 3rd-best Yards/Carry in SEC play last year and the 6th-best Explosive Run Rate. Texas A&M’s run defense certainly doesn’t give one much confidence in this matchup as it surrendered a bottom5 Defensive Rushing Success Rate, Explosive Run Rate, and average rush yards after contact. But considering how overly subpar the Rebels were defensively last year, one has to think the Aggies can take care of business here. While I tend to hone in one TAMU’s lack of potency through the air, Ole Miss’s 2nd-worst Explosive Pass Rate in SEC play could undo the advantage they seemingly have on the ground in that respect. 

WEEK 10:

Mississippi State @ Ole Miss: Projected Margin Ole Miss by 6.5

Always contentious, this Egg Bowl will be a doozy as Mike Leach and Lane Kiffin join the madness. The insanity from last year’s game (and the ensuing reset from each program) is well documented. Folks surely are giddy to see what will be in-store this year. Miss State’s offense will be its engine and present its best path to victory. With the worst defense in the conference, the Bulldogs could find themselves in many a shootout across this season. This game will feature the SEC’s two worse units at preventing explosive passes. On the surface, that benefits the pass-happy Bulldogs, but both offenses displayed above average potency through the air last year in SEC play. Though the SP+ likes Ole Miss’s defense more, their play versus conference offense was just as shoddy as the Bulldogs’ last year. Both defenses were bottom4 in Success Rate, Explosive Play Rate, and Touchdown Rate. This game projects to be close, but I’m a little surprised the initial margin isn’t smaller as the home team is projected to win by about a touchdown. 

WEEK 11:

Ole Miss @ LSU: Projected Margin LSU by 14

Though the Tigers will be significantly favored in their Week 11 closer versus the Rebels, this game is no gimme. Sure, the Tigers raced out to a big lead last year and won comfortably. But Ole Miss’s run game busted plenty of big runs and showed this team has the potential to gash anyone when their guard is left down. LSU’s offense should be able to propel them in a likewise fashion in 2020, but it will clearly have more holes and flaws. Even last year, the Tigers were bottom3 in rush yards after contact with the 6th-worst Tackle Rate and Explosive Run Rate in conference play. Ole Miss should look long and hard at those numbers. An explosive pass game should best an explosive run game all else considered, but Ole Miss will be seeking a golden capper on Lane Kiffin’s first year in Oxford and will undoubtedly play to its strengths against the defending champs. Much can change around both programs before then. While early momentum has shrunk this margin, LSU still has plenty of talent to walk off with a win at home. 

For more information on Ole Miss's schemes, scripts, and stats visit the following links: