2020 Vision: Mississippi State

Can you hear them? The sirens... in the distance. What the hell could they possibly mean? Quick, grab the kids and some Golden Flake and head to the basement! The Air Raid is finally coming back to the SEC! Mike Leach's pass-happy scheme, of course, first found its footing at the Power5 level at Kentucky under Hal Mumme. Orchestrating a scheme that honed in on attacking the defense's most vulnerable spots through the air, Leach helped popularize staples that are now used by practically every offense in America. Just last year, the Air Raid finally made it to the NFL with former Leach-QB Kliff Kingsbury captaining the Arizona Cardinals. Though things have evolved and wrinkles have morphed since its initial form (notably the Air Raid has leaned into spread tactics and doesn't operate from two-back sets), this highly-effective offense will see if it can turn Mississippi State into a winner. It might be a difficult transition from Joe Moorhead's RPO-laden, balanced run, and vertical passing concepts, but the Bulldogs will still have opportunities to win some games. In this preview, you'll see where MSU's key returners rank relative to other SECers, important stats for the Bulldogs to improve or maintain on both sides of the ball, and how its schedule stacks up per ESPN's SP+ Ratings. 

Passers:

Stanford grad-transfer KJ Costello might not match his output from 2018 in Starkville. But, his presence will without question help Mike Leach’s initial Air Raid offense get off the ground in 2020. His outlook can get a little fuzzy projecting his production in a new offense, in a new conference, with new weapons, and with his 2019 numbers being affected by injuries and inconsistency. To get a better grasp of his ability, I chose to chart a five game sample from the last two seasons versus opponents equated to a typical SEC team conference slate when averaged out through the eyes of ESPN’s SP+. Sorry cupcakes, but I put more weight into play versus tough foes. 

Across that sample, Costello finds himself near the top of SEC returners in a few key spots. His body of work attacking intermediate areas and contested targets along with his general downfield precision projects a top4 Success Rate and Depth Adjusted Accuracy amongst conference returners. Assuming he’s kept clean, he certainly can make Mississippi State’s offense a factor. But, Costello has a few warts on his profile. 

He lacks a great arm and needs to hitch up in the pocket to generate his best throws. At least, he consistently delivered a catchable ball that gave his guys a stab at it. His touch passes, however, sometimes fluttered resulting in contested jump balls or straight-up interceptions. He’s one of the few returners to sport a double-digit Interceptable Pass Rate. With his wide base and slow delivery, he’s susceptible to defensive disruption and didn’t look too sturdy when that occurred across his sample. His otherwise admirable 50.6% Depth Adjusted Accuracy% plummeted to 28.1% when pressured as his Interceptable Pass Rate topped 23%. Seeing that Miss State put up bottom4 Pressure and Sack Rates versus SEC opponents last year, how Costello handles the heat will be all the difference for this pass-happy attack. 

If he can't takeoff, the Bulldogs will turn to true freshman Will Rogers. As a three-star recruit, he doesn't excite you too much on the surface. But as a top25 pocket passer in his class, his skill set could thrive under Leach. He lacks great physical tools as of now and is obviously very young. What we might see from Rogers this year probably won't be a great reflection of his ceiling. Still, he had to have made quite an impression on his coach for him to award Rogers the backup job over an incumbent' especially after said incumbent was moved to another position. 

Battle-tested sophomore Garrett Shrader has recently transition to receiver to give that position group a boost. With no receiving stats to point to, we'll have to look at how Shrader performed in space as a runner to gauge his outlook. While having less dudes to duke it out with on the depth chart should help his playing time, Shrader is a clear athlete in space. Overall, his rushing numbers were a little average. But on designed carries (non sack or scramble plays), he averaged more Yards/Carry than Najee Harris, Kylin Hill and AJ Rose and sported a top8 Explosive Run Rate, First Down+TD Rate and Success Rate within the conference. 

Though he certainly used his legs, he was far from coddled as a passer. Though his passing days might be over, no SEC freshman quarterback had a lower RPO Throw Rate or higher Average Depth of Target. Plus amongst 9 SECers with at least 80 attempts coming back for 2020, Shrader sports the 2nd-best Explosive Pass Rate with the 4th best-Depth Adjusted Accuracy%, First Down+TD Rate, and Uncatchable Pass Rate; all of which led the soon-to-be-sophomores. But like Costello, preventing turnover-worthy plays remains to be the turd in his punch bow. Only John Rhys Plumlee had a higher Interceptable Pass Rate amongst the 9 returning QBs. 

Catchers:

The Bulldogs don’t return much pass-catching experience. Osiris Mitchell is the only dude who commanded north of 20 targets last season. But with the Air Raid, that will change. SEVEN Washington State players logged 20 CATCHES or more in 2019. 

Mitchell will be their best bet to stretch the field. Along with being the most veteran receiver and his lanky frame, Mitchell’s 16.7 average depth of target in SEC play will be the top mark amongst returners. A third of his overall targets occurred at least 20 yards downfield. He managed to haul in five of his 13 catchable deep attempts. But looking across his entire profile from last year, he underwhelmed. About a fifth of his targets versus conference defenses were charted as uncatchable, which was above average but still manageable. Still, Mitchell’s First Down+Touchdown Rate and Yards/Target were 10 percentage points and 1.5 yards below the SEC mean, respectively. At least, his 46% Catching Success Rate fell on the good side of average in SEC play. 

JaVonta Payton will be looked upon to make a leap on the outside. Only seeing 13 targets last year, it’s hard to put much weight into his output. Still, it’s a good thing he made the most of his limited action. His 61.5% Success Rate and 23.1% Explosive Catch Rate will be tough to replicate on a 16.9 average depth of target, but at least, there’s some optimism for him to continue to put up efficient targets with his volume expected to skyrocket. 

Austin Williams and Geor’quarius Spivey look to start at slot and at tight end. The duo combined for a mere 25 targets and 14 catches last year. Neither really posted returns worth writing about, but that doesn’t mean they won’t be factors. Again, seven Cougars caught at least 20 passes last year. On catchable passes, the pair managed to combine for a 75% Catch Rate. So as long as Leach can find patterns for them to play pitch-and-catch with Costello, their productions should be okay. With so many unknowns, it’s hard to be too bullish on the Bulldogs passing game. But, I’m giving a good deal of benefit of the doubt towards the Master of the Air Raid. 

Rushers:

Kylin Hill’s decision to return to college for his senior season was interesting. Knowing at that point the run-first days of old were likely over, Hill seized the chance to see if a pass-happy approach could facilitate his rushing. It’s certainly easier to turn to the ground when your opponent isn’t loading the box or leaving receivers uncovered. Of course, the constant threat of the pass sure helped LSU’s run lanes widen year over year. So let's see if that phenomenon is seen in Starkville. As is, Hill sits as one of the SEC’s most accomplished and prolific ball carriers. Versus SEC defenses last year, only Najee Harris secured more yards, first downs, and broken tackles. His 56.4% team Carry Share also holds the top spot within the conference behind Harris ahead of 2020. 

His volume will almost certainly decrease. Hill logged 30 more carries and over 400 more yards by himself than Washington State compiled as a team in 2019. Again, the move to the pass should help his down-to-down efforts. His 4.95 Yards/Carry, 20.8% Broken Tackle Rate, 40.9% Rushing Success Rate, and 11.7% Explosive Run Rate all fell below the SEC average in league play. Lee Witherspoon will get spot chances, but no question Hill should see the majority of touches on the ground. In case you were curious, Hill hauled in 18 of his 24 targets -- 5 of the 8 on dropback plays -- but only one attempt was uncatchable. With that element likely to increase in this offense, his hands must improve. Over his 31 targets the last two seasons, Hill has logged 5 drops. Leach typically likes to lean on one guy as his bell cow. And looking at Lee Witherspoon’s 2019 output, there’s no good argument to deviate from Hill too often. 

Glancing at the O-Line:

Though a healthy amount of quarterback runs helped inflate Miss State’s rush yards before contact average, they were consistently among the best at creating cushion against conference opponents. In those spots, the Bulldogs put up a 2.88 clip, which was good for the SEC’s 2nd-best. When they were on, Miss State gashed folks. But when they were off, they often were put into desperation mode. Their Negative Play Rate and Run Havoc Rate both fell into the bottom5 in league play. Still, running the ball is what most of their hog-mollies were recruited to do as their team Rushing Success Rate placed 5th and their Yards/Carry earned the SEC's silver medal. 

A vertical passing scheme with a long gestation period forced their run-oriented line to pass set longer than accustomed. That begat the SEC’s 4th-worst Sack Rate and 2nd-worst Pressure Rate. I already mentioned how Costello isn’t one to stand tall consistently in the face of duress. So this will be a major thing to watch year-over-year. If the Bulldogs can’t shore up their pass blocking, there’s no way this team will make any kind of noise this season. Their starters project to be Charles Cross, Dareuan Parker, LaQuinston Sharp, Cole Smith, and Greg Eiland. 

Key Offensive Stats in SEC Play:

The most important stats for the Bulldogs to maintain against SEC defenses are its Explosive Play Rate and rush yards before contact. The Air Raid will take to the skies and pass a whole lot. It will unequivocally be more dangerous if it can create chunk gains. As an every down offense, the Air Raid can become a methodical, nickel-and-dime approach. Designed off the idea to attack the defense at its weakest point, the Air Raid can frequently feature check downs and short patterns. As long as this unit doesn’t become too muted doing so and can bust out explosive gains, it’ll be in a good spot. Likewise if the Bulldogs can run against a soft cushion, their offense will be better for it. Sometimes, the most vulnerable part of the defense happens to be the tackle box between the bookends. If Miss State can steal yards on the ground without having to dedicate a lot of effort, defenses will become more off balance trying to curb their intentions. Big plays will be needed to help the Bulldogs play with an increased margin of error.

The most important stats for Mississippi State to improve against conference defenses are its aforementioned putrid Pressure and Sack Rates. Not to beat a dead horse, but these aspects could doom this offense before a snap is taken. No passing offense can find much success with these rates near a conference’s floor. Costello must be kept clean. MUST. 

Key Defensive Stats in SEC Play:

The most important stat for Mississippi State’s defense to maintain against conference offenses is its Takeaway Rate. Versus SEC foes, the Bulldogs finished essentially near the bottom in most defensive metrics. Their Success Rate, Yards/Play allowed, Explosive Pass Rate, and Touchdown Rate all finished bottom3 or worse within league play last year. But forcing a turnover on 3% of their conference snaps helped ease the pain, provide its offense with extra possessions, and find a way for Miss State to win inside the margins. Since they were pretty bad across the board, this is the only stat I’d hope to replicate in 2020 if I was them. 

The most important stats for Mississippi State’s defense to improve against SEC offenses are its Defensive Success Rate and Explosive Play Rate allowed. With such a bad defense, I’m picking with two obvious areas of concern. It’s one thing to be a good down-to-down defense who lets up big plays. It’s also another to be bad down-to-down unit who never surrenders chunk gains. And of course, when defense is neither good on any given snap or capable of bottling up opponents, it usually never ends up well. Though Mississippi State was one of the best at generating explosive gains for themselves, the rate at which they gave up such plays trumped their offensive output in SEC play. Winning the explosive play battle had correlated with 75% of victories the last couple of years with an SEC team involved. It may not carry over at the rate to be great on every down, but stifling big gainers should be a major area of focus. 

Mississippi State's 2020 Schedule:

Mississippi State will enter 2020 with an average schedule in terms of strength per ESPN's SP+ Ratings. The Bulldogs will get their more winnable games at home for the most part. MSU hosts the likes of Arkansas, Missouri, and Vanderbilt; largely viewed as the three worst teams in the conference. But their road games are brutal. All four of Miss State's first four road opponents rock top25 defenses in the SP+; two are top5. And let's not overlook Missouri's D that led the conference in Defensive Success Rate, which ranks 18th to start the year on that side of the ball. Miss State themselves have a top26 offense. And of course, Mike Leach has been known to create some magic running the Air Raid. Still with seven opponents falling inside the top30 defensively, it's fair to ask if the Air Raid gets off the ground. 

Furthermore, the Bulldogs project to have the worst defense in the SEC. No matter how prolific your offense is, you won't win many ball games with tissue paper defense. Due to that shortcoming, Vegas set their win total at 4. While that seems rather pessimistic, betters like the Bulldogs to play spoiler on occasion. Originally, MSU's under/over was set at 2.5 with the odds leaning more on the under. This comes despite Missouri leapfrogging the Bulldogs in the time between the initial Ratings and the preseason updates. They'll be favored in three games head-to-head by the SP+, but the metric's season simulation set their win total at 3.4. The tweener game could be the Egg Bowl, which is the only game where the Bulldogs aren't projected to lose by more than a touchdown. Outside of Vandy and Arkansas, the Rebels are the worst defense the Bulldogs face this year. This offensive-oriented team cannot biff opportunities like that. At the end of the day, there is value believing in the Bulldogs. Their over (+155) offers the best bang-for-buck payout of all the SEC under/over win totals. Conversely, the worst is Miss State's under (-210). 

Before I soldier on, I probably should explain what the SP+ Ratings are a little bit. Defining the SP+ in a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. ESPN's Bill Connelly's metric is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. That is important to remember. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise. Using the initial ratings, let's check out how Miss State's schedule stacks up.

WEEK 1:

Mississippi State @ LSU: Projected Margin LSU by 17

The defending national champs enter Week 1 as three-score favorites despite a boat load of departures and recent opt outs. KJ Costello and the Air Raid could make things interesting,  but Miss State doesn’t have a deep cupboard of weapons. Plus, their line was one of the worst pass blocking units in SEC play last year; important aspects for a pass-happy offense to function normally. Dave Aranda no longer leading LSU’s defense, however, could result in a slow start for the Bayou Bengals. After all, LSU’s defense really didn’t turn it on until the last quarter of the season last year. Still, Derek Stingley Jr should do his part to keep the Air Raid grounded. On the other side of the ball, the Bulldogs allowed the 2nd-highest Explosive Play Rate versus SEC offenses last season. Plus, no defense projects to be worse in the SP+. Hard to pick a better first opponent for an overly green LSU offense all else considered. 

WEEK 2:

Arkansas @ Mississippi State: Projected Margin Mississippi St by 10.5

By the SP+, this will be one of the few games the Bulldogs will enter as favorites. The Air Raid could take flight and bombard the Hogs defense all afternoon. Barry Odom is a more shell creator and likes his defenses to sit back before rallying. This style does’t call for a lot of blitzing. So as long as Miss State’s yucky pass blocking can contain a unit that put up the SEC’s worst Pressure Rate last year, their offense should be able to shred the SEC’s least successful pass defense. On the other side of the coin, the Bulldogs’ pass defense was the next worst in league play. Entering the season, the SP+ has MSU as the worst defense in the SEC. If Feleipe Franks can take advantage of that matchup, we might have a barn-burner on our hands. Plus if Franks can't produce against the SEC's lowest rated overall defense, it's not a glowing omen for the rest of the season. 

WEEK 3:

Mississippi State @ Kentucky: Projected Margin Kentucky by 12

Assuming the Cats’ secondary is able to replicate its success from last season, this could be a bad matchup for Mike Leach’s Air Raid. With the 2nd-best Yards/Pass allowed in SEC play, UK’s defense also was the conference’s best at creating takeaways. Doing that again is a hard ask. But both of Miss State’s passers hold high Interceptable Pass Rates. Plus, the Bulldogs surrendered the 2nd-worst Pressure Rate in league play last year while the Cats sported the 4th-best Sack Rate. Though the two teams are even in the eyes of the SP+ on the surface, Kentucky should have the edge so long the Bulldogs don’t want to run. Maybe MSU’s defense improves. But, for the time being, Miss State rocks the SEC’s worst defense entering the year. Despite the uncertainties around UK’s offense, they should be able to move the ball at home. 

WEEK 4:

Texas A&M @ Mississippi State: Projected Margin Texas A&M by 13

If Mississippi State can find some big gains, they could absolutely keep it close against the Aggies’ methodical pro-scheme. Obviously, MSU’s scheme — among other things —are different year-over-year. But, the Bulldogs were one of the few conference offenses to sport a top5 Explosive Rate throwing and running. Overall, they ended the year with the SEC’s bronze medal in league play. Texas A&M’s defense was bottom4 in the SEC at allowing explosive plays last year. But the greater expectation is for Kellen Mond to slice and dice the SEC’s 2nd-least successful pass defense from 2019. While faith is in the Air Raid to win in some spots with its top25 offensive rating, TAMU is top15 on both sides of the ball. The SP+ likes them to win by a multiple possessions. 

WEEK 5:

BYE WEEK

WEEK 6:

Mississippi State at Alabama: Projected Margin Alabama by 28

The SP+ thinks this game will be a total blowout. Since Alabama rocks the nation’s top offense entering the year and the Bulldogs have the worst defense in the conference, the numbers don’t look too good for Mississippi State. Despite a top25 offense, there are major concerns around MSU’s ability to pass block. No team was better than Alabama at generating pressure on any given pass attempt than the Tide in SEC play last year. The more they’re bound to create duress, the more likely something catastrophic happens for the offense; especially considering KJ Costello proclivity to put the ball into harms way when facing a rusher. Still if MSU’s line comes to play, the Air Raid could surgically move the ball versus a unit that was middle-of-the-road situationally in SEC play a year ago. Though Mike Leach might have some wrinkles, the initial prognosis doesn’t indicate his first trip to Tuscaloosa will end well. 

WEEK 7:

Vanderbilt @ Mississippi State: Projected Margin by 19

As bad as the Bulldogs stand to be defensively, Vanderbilt’s offense looks to be worse. While each such unit is the conference’s worst, Miss State’s D is around the national median and Vandy’s O is near the bottom of the rankings. Furthermore, let’s not act like Derek Mason’s defense is significantly better than the Bulldogs’. For MSU’s top25 offense, the ‘Dores are the only other opponent outside of Arkansas to project a defense outside of the top40. Long story short, wins will be hard to come for Miss State. For them beat their projected win total, games like this can’t be taken for granted. Hosting Vanderbilt, the SEC East’s worst team, at home presents the Bulldogs with of their best chance at securing a victory in the eyes of the SP+.

WEEK 8:

Auburn @ Miss State: Projected Margin Auburn by 13

Auburn falls right in the middle of Mississippi State’s hardest stretch. In a month featuring the Tigers, Alabama, and Georgia, the Bulldogs were granted no favors by the league with their post-bye week slate. It’s possible the Air Raid could catch a team off-guard one of those weeks, but it’s hard to imagine it will be Auburn coming off of its bye. As one of the best defenses around, the Steele Curtain should have a nice plan to take on the Air Raid. Again, the Tigers were practically the only team to slow down Joe Burrow’s passing last year. I think they’ll have something ready for KJ Costello who looks much worse versus pressure and more prone to turnover-worthy throws. Still, road conference games are no gimmes especially when your opponent rocks a top25 offense. 

WEEK 9:

Mississippi State @ Georgia: Projected Margin Georgia by 24.5

Mississippi State won’t have much of a chance to beat the Bulldogs, but the possibility will remain thanks to Georgia’s pedestrian Defensive Pass Success Rate against conference foes last year and unknowns surrounding the Dawgs’ offense. While big gainers were rare, a few teams managed to successfully pick at UGA’s defense through the air. Playing mistake-free football with methodical gains isn’t sexy. But with how forgettable Mike Leach’s defense stands to be this season, keeping them off the field with a ball control offense might birth decent results. Tiring out Georgia’s defense while keeping his fresh is one of the few ways an undermanned Miss State team can win in the margins. Still, the SP+ overly likes Georgia’s chances to shut down the Bulldogs and win without much of a fight. 

WEEK 10:

Mississippi State @ Ole Miss: Projected Margin Ole Miss by 6.5

Always contentious, this Egg Bowl will be a doozy as Mike Leach and Lane Kiffin join the madness. The insanity from last year’s game (and the ensuing reset from each program) is well documented. Folks surely are giddy to see what will be in-store this year. Miss State’s offense will be its engine and present its best path to victory. With the worst defense in the conference, the Bulldogs could find themselves in many a shootout across this season. This game will feature the SEC’s two worse units at preventing explosive passes. On the surface, that benefits the pass-happy Bulldogs, but both offenses displayed above average potency through the air last year in SEC play. Though the SP+ likes Ole Miss’s defense more, their play versus conference offense was just as shoddy as the Bulldogs’ last year. Both defenses were bottom4 in Success Rate, Explosive Play Rate, and Touchdown Rate. This game projects to be close, but I’m a little surprised the initial margin isn’t smaller as the home team is projected to win by about a touchdown. 

WEEK 11:

Missouri @ Mississippi State: Projected Margin Mississippi State by 2.5

Mississippi State has two great opportunities to head into the offseason with some positivity. Both of its last two games remain among their most winnable games on their schedule. Per the SP+, the Bulldogs are only favored to win this game and the ones against Vanderbilt and Arkansas. The same is true for the Tigers. With only a projected margin of 2.5 points, this game truly could go either way. On paper, Miss State’s liability of a defense matches up well Missouri’s offense that stands to start the season ranked in the triple-digits. That said, this stands to be the Tigers’ premier opportunity to move the ball looking at the rest of their defensive opponents. But by this point in the season, we’ll have an entirely new data set to help up make our decisions. Still, it reigns true that if Missouri can force the Bulldogs into a shootout, their defense should be better positioned to win down-to-down. But total team strength gives the initial edge to Mike Leach’s bunch.

For more information on Mississippi State's schemes, scripts, and stats visit the following links: