SEC StatCat's Top5 Passers Behind the Chains for 2021

All offenses plan to move forward. In the game of violent real estate acquisition, staying a head of the chains keeps an offense in rhythm while minimizing situational risk. But as we know, sometimes plans go awry with a penalty or botched execution. When put behind the chains and faced with adversity, passers typically need to be able to elevate their teammates and keep their composure. Though a lot can change, here are the SEC’s top5 passers when behind the chains based on their performance from last season. 

5. Connor Bazelak

Eli Drinkwitz had some pretty fun wrinkles to produce some splash gains, but Missouri’s pass game — whether on schedule or behind the chains — was more methodical than big play-oriented. Conner Bazealk’s modest average depth of target in these spots birthed a likewise Yards/Attempt and Explosive Pass Rate. Focused on seizing a manageable chunk of yardage versus soft coverage, the Tigers sports a top4 Success Rate and First Down+TD Rate. Taking what the defense gives you has its advantages. But despite the lowest Uncatchable Pass Rate amongst returners, Bazelak’s 45.9% Depth Adjusted Accuracy clip is one of the SEC’s four worst ahead of 2021, which leaves behind a stink. 

4. KJ Jefferson

Though his inclusion on this list might seem unfounded, Arkansas’ KJ Jefferson has consistently looked comfortable when tasked on digging his offense out behind the chains. Yes, his Success Rate is only the 8th-best clip amongst returners, but a mere three percentage points separates his clip from 4th place. No doubt his sample is a bit wonky. But the Razorback logged the SEC’s best Depth Adjusted Accuracy in 2020 and Jefferson’s Interceptable Pass Rate stand to be tops for 2021. All the while, he rocks the 3rd-highest average depth of target on the 3rd-highest usage rate. As a nice kicker, his First Down+TD Rate and Explosive Pass Rate when behind the chains both are top5 figures. 

3. TJ Finley

Look, I get this might be premature and borderline irresponsible. But ex-LSU Tiger TJ Finley was a pretty solid passer in these spots as a freshman. There’s no guarantee he’ll see playing time this season. But logging the league’s 3rd best Success Rate, First Down+TD Rate, and Depth Adjusted Accuracy behind the chains is a pretty decent building block for a young passer to build upon. Though he was just as likely to toss an interceptable attempt as a gain of 20 or more yards when behind the chains, Finley’s clip of the former is top4 ahead of this fall within this conference.

2. JT Daniels

Only three conference passers managed to produce at least a 50% Success Rate behind the chains. One of them led Alabama to a national title, the other headlines this list, and the remainder is Georgia’s JT Daniels. Behind a vertically-oriented style of play, the Bulldogs often targeted well-beyond the sticks when put behind the chains. And Daniels was well-experienced logging snaps in these spots per his 50% clip, which is the SEC’s 5th-highest mark. Though a fifth of these attempts were uncatchable and his depth adjusted accuracy was sour, JTD’s First Down+TD Rate, Interceptable Pass Rate, and Explosive Pass Rate sit no lower than second ahead of this fall amongst his peers. In fact, his 18.3% clip of the latter is a conference-high. 

1. Matt Corral

Matt Corral joined Daniels as the only qualifier to don an average depth of target over 12 yards in this context. But unlike the Bulldog, Ole Miss’s QB displayed much more consistency with his ball placement. Among the major conference starters last year, no one trumped his 62.1% Depth Adjusted Accuracy and both his Success Rate and First Down+TD Rate cracked the top3. Though his aggression begat a so-so rate of turnover-worthy passes, Corral’s Explosive Pass Rate and Uncatchable Pass Rate reached that threshold as well. Timely play calls typically kept this offense ahead of the chains as no returner rocks a lower usage rate in these spots at Corral’s 36% clip. Despite the relatively low work load behind the chains, he played the role of hero rather well.