SEC StatCat's Top4 3rd Down Passers for 2021

If you are not a doer, you are a dier. At least, that is the case on third down. In case that cliche wasn’t clear enough, It’s often all or nothing on the money down. And any fan knows it is vital to be successful in those situations. One extra conversion or failed try can be the difference between victory and defeat. Though one-off situations with little sustainability game-to-game or year-to-year, it’s always better optics to execute in these spots.  Since QBs often get the blame or glory — as most offenses tend to take to the skies — here are the SEC’s best returning 3rd Down passers ahead of 2021. 

4. Luke Doty

Normally, I like to serve up a top5 list. But quite honestly, the drop-off between top performers and the rest of the pack is pretty stark. So let’s skip ahead to number 4 where soon-to-be sophomore Luke Doty starts us off. Though a bandaid that was baptized by fire, his mobility helped him find open underneath completions. Donning the 2nd-best Depth-Adjusted Accuracy% doesn’t mean nothing, but it undeniably means less when one’s average depth of target was the 2nd-lowest. No returner suffered from a worse Pressure Rate in these spots than his 41% clip, which explains why his Interceptable Pass Rate projects to be a bottom3 clip. But, his precision aided Doty’s 3rd-best 7.0 Yards/Attempt even if the rest of his profile was rather forgettable.

3. Conner Bazelak

Connor Bazelak wasn’t a super sexy quarterback during his first season as a starter, but his performance on third downs helped his team finished above its expectations. Though a lot of his metrics are mediocre, these snaps had a noticeable effect on his  a top-35 EPA/pass nationally last season. His output wasn’t entirely explosive thanks to Missouri’s affinity for horizontal spacing concepts, but Bazelak sits inside the top4 in 3rd Down Success Rate, Depth Adjusted Accuracy, Yards/Attempt, Interceptable and Uncatchable Pass Rate. Amongst returners only Bo Nix and Ken Seals logged a higher percentage of their throws on the down than the Tiger’s 25% clip. 

2. JT Daniels 

3rd Downs were a double-edged sword for Georgia and JT Daniels. Todd Monken’s pass philosophy normally aimed to stretch secondaries deep; but on the do or die down, Daniels often took it up a notch. No SEC averaged more than his 10.5 Yards/Attempt or topped his 12.8 average depth of target. Both his Explosive Pass Rate and Interceptable Pass Rate finished runner up in 2020 and stand as the best respective clips within the SEC ahead of this fall. Plus in SEC play, Daniels commanded a conference-high 73% Success Rate. But like I hinted, his performance cut both ways. Only one returner generated a worse Depth Adjusted Accuracy and Uncatchable Pass Rate. And thanks to going 0-9 on 3rd down opportunities in UGA’s bowl game, JTD’s Success Rate plummeted to 48.2%, which kept him from being the top dog. 

1. Matt Corral 

I always like to preach 3rd Downs should be avoided by offenses. Well, not only did Matt Corral unequivocally serve up the best resume amongst returners in these spots, but he also logged the lowest usage rate. Last year he was one of two SECers to see over half of their money downs end in success and finished runner-up with a 10.1 Yards/Attempt. But with a clear mission, Corral displayed the conference best Depth-Adjusted Accuracy% with a 60.7% clip. With that kind of precision in crunch spots, his commendable metrics came naturally. Amongst returners, his stats are top2 across the board with the exception of his 14% Uncatchable Pass Rate that places third.