SEC StatCat's Top5 Running Backs for 2021

Though the consensus is running backs don’t matter in the pros — at least analytically speaking — ball carriers are still plenty valuable in the college ranks. Of course, I’m still going to look down my nose at the dudes who only get by strictly by volume touches. But, I will always laud bruising tackle breakers, speedy skat backs, and dudes that seem to always fall forward. I don’t know about you all, but I don’t like three yards and a cloud of dust. I’d much rather seek efficiency and situational success as a compliment to my pass game. Though things can change, here are the SEC’s top5 running backs ahead of 2021. 

5. Brian Robinson

Though Brian Robinson functioned as Najee Harris’ side kick the last couple of seasons, he should slide in and immediately deliver efficient carries. Only 19% of his tries occurred when the Tide were up by less than a touchdown. Playing from ahead in advantageous spots on one of the best offenses ever helped his overall metrics look exceptional. Robinson finished runner-up within the conference in Success Rate, First Down+TD Rate, Gumption Rate, and yards after contact average. Often playing with and against backups, his talent shined through the doldrums of garbage time. Despite sporting a bottom3 yards before contact average, his Yards/Carry and Broken Tackle Rate finished inside the SEC’s top10. Plus per CFP-graph.com, his EPA/run is the 5th-highest amongst returners. 

4. Isaiah Spiller

By volume, Isaiah Spiller rushed for the conference’s 3rd-most yards, broke the 3rd-most tackles, and secured the 2nd-most first downs conversions. But while Spiller received plenty of touches, a good amount of his efficiency stats cracked the conference’s top10. With a noticeable buffer between him and defenders, Spiller snatched the 6th-best Yards/Carry and Explosive Run Rate in the conference last year. The latter stands as the SEC’s runner-up ahead of 2021. Though the Maroon Goons provided plenty of cushion, Spiller owns a top4 YAC average after seeing his personal Broken Tackle Rate increase 12 percentage points year-over-year. To round out his resume for this fall, the Aggie rocks a top10 Success Rate, First Down+TD Rate, and EPA/run amongst his peers. 

3. Jerrion Ealy

Jerrion Ealy is a firecracker. He’ll either excite and delight or disappoint with a dud. While being hit behind the line on over 15% of his attempts this season, only six SECers logged a higher Negative Run Rate. These consistent dings kept his Success Rate and Yards/Carry outside of the conference’s top10 in 2020, but his big gainers fueled by hard running allowed his First Down+TD Rate and Broken Tackle Rate to cross that threshold. Per Pro Football Focus, 48% of his runs gained at least 3 yards after contact, which was the 8th-best mark in the power5. Breakaway runs aren’t supposed to be a consistent running back trait in the eyes of analytics, but Ealy seems to be leading the charge rebelling against that notion. No SEC qualifier can best his 18.4% Explosive Run Rate. 

2. Tank Bigsby

There’s no getting around Tank Bigsby’s fantastic freshman campaign. Due to his modus operandi, age, and being Auburn’s main offensive attraction, he’s a trendy pick for RB1 as well as a Heisman dark horse. Living up to his namesake, Bigsby’s Broken Tackle Rate reigned supreme over the entire conference in 2020. By volume, only Najee Harris totaled more than his 58. Behind these bountiful bust-outs, his Yards/Carry, yards after contact average, Gumption Rate, and First Down+TD Rate all cracked the SEC’s top4. For good measure, his Success Rate and Explosive Run Rate were top10 worthy. The buzz is Auburn wants to return to its traditional roots behind a physical ground game. His presumed workload could result in some truly eye popping figures for the returner with the 3rd most yards and combined first down+TD carries. 

1. Chris Rodriguez

I’m not shy about my affinity for Chris Rodriguez. Already one of the SEC’s most efficient and imposing runners in 2019 league play, the Wildcat put up one of the most valuable rushing seasons in recent memory. His 65.6% Success Rate and 42.0% First Down+TD Rate are the conference’s two highest respective figures in at least three seasons among ball carriers with at least 75 attempts. In addition to having the 2nd-best Broken Tackle Rate amongst dudes on this list, that clip sits inside the top5 for 2021. Plus, Rodriguez boasts the SEC’s top YAC average and EPA/run. No non-QB topped C-Rod’s figure according CFP-graphs dot com. Actually, his 0.399 figure is the best in the nation and even higher than JT Daniels’ and Matt Corral’s EPA/pass clips. Per Pro Football Focus, no returning rusher dons a higher overall grade.